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New Zealand Retail Report Q1 2016

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 71 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: New Zealand is a highly developed country with a modern and diverse retail market. Stablegrowth has helped boost household incomes and this will offer retailers a number of opportunities, despitethe country's comparatively small market. We are forecasting incomes to grow at 2.8% annually until 2019;however, 58.2% of spending will still go towards essential items.New Zealand has maintained control over both domestic and regional risks over the past five years and thishas helped boost the country's economic growth. Real GDP rose by 3.3% in 2014, the fastest rate since2007, and we are expecting growth for 2015 to come in at 2.4%. We expecting annual growth to fluctuatebetween 2-3% until 2019 and this should cultivate stable conditions for the retail market. One potential risk,however, will stem from the dairy industry, which is experiencing a prolonged price slump. Recent data hasindicated a loss of USD4.8bn to the economy, and this has also damaged incomes within the sector.

Table Of Contents

New Zealand Retail Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 10
Economic 11
Industry Forecast 13
Headline Retail Forecast 13
Table: Total Household Spending (New Zealand 2012-2019) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (New Zealand 2012-2019) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (New Zealand 2012-2019) 15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (New Zealand 2012-2019) 17
Retail Sector Forecast 18
Food, Drink and Tobacco 20
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (New Zealand 2012-2019) 20
Clothing and Footwear 21
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (New Zealand 2012-2019) 21
Household Goods Spending 22
Table: Household Goods Spending (New Zealand 2012-2019) 22
Table: Consumer Electronics Spending (New Zealand 2012-2019) 23
Table: Toys, Sports, Gardens and Pets Spending (New Zealand 2012-2019) 24
Personal Care Spending 24
Table: Personal Care Spending (New Zealand 2012-2019) 25
Household Numbers and Income Forecast 26
Table: Household Income Data (New Zealand 2012-2019) 26
Table: Labour Market Data (New Zealand 2012-2019) 30
Demographic Forecast 32
Table: Total Population (New Zealand 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Babies (New Zealand 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Young Children (New Zealand 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Children (New Zealand 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (New Zealand 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: Young People (New Zealand 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (New Zealand 2012-2019) 36
Table: Population: 21yrs + (New Zealand 2012-2019) 36
Table: Population: Young Adults (New Zealand 2012-2019) 36
Table: Population: Middle Aged (New Zealand 2012-2019) 37
Table: Population: Urban (New Zealand 2012-2019) 37
Macroeconomic Forecasts 38
Economic Analysis 38
Table: Economic Activity (New Zealand 2010-2019) 42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 43
Developed States Risk/Reward Index 43
Table: Developed States Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116 43
Industry Risk Reward Index 45
Rewards 45
Risks 46
Market Overview 48
Competitive Landscape 50
Department Stores 50
MGR 50
Fashion Retail 51
Homeware and Hardware 52
Glossary 53
Demographic Forecast 60
Table: Population Headline Indicators (New Zealand 1990-2025) 61
Table: Key Population Ratios (New Zealand 1990-2025) 61
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (New Zealand 1990-2025) 62
Table: Population By Age Group (New Zealand 1990-2025) 62
Table: Population By Age Group % (New Zealand 1990-2025) 63
Methodology 65
Industry Forecast Methodology 65
Sources 68
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 68
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 69
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 71

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