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Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - October, 2015

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 41 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from October 6 until November 5, 2015 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised in its latest country report the economic growth forecast for Bosnia and Herzegovina to 2.1% for 2015 from the previous 2.0%, according to a country report. The estimation for the GDP growth for 2016 remained unchanged at 3.0%.

At the same time, the latest analysis of the Directorate for Economic Planning (DEP) noted that the real sector indicators for July give mixed signals on the economic activity in Bosnia in the third quarter of 2015.

The European Council said it is seriously concerned about the preparations of Bosnian Serb Republic to hold referendum on the state-level judiciary as it would challenge the cohesion, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia.

Meanwhile, the chairman of the tripartite presidency, Dragan Covic, said that Bosnia hopes to apply for European Union membership by December 2015.

Bosnia has not succeed to reform its energy sector in 2015 and lacks serious efforts to do so, according to the latest report of the Energy Community. The community adopted measures against the country as it failed to adopt the Second Energy Package in the gas sector.

On the corporate side, a consortium comprising Croatian oil and gas company INA and Hungary's MOL is interested in replacing Royal Dutch Shell in an oil and gas exploration project in the Bosnian Federation, according to the entity's Prime Minister Fadil Novalic.



Key points:

oCPI deflation widened to 1.8% y/y in September from 1.1% y/y in August

oThe working-day adjusted industrial production rose by 1.7% y/y in September

oThe foreign trade gap narrowed 7.0% y/y to BAM5.1bn (EUR2.6bn) in the first nine months of 2015

Table Of Contents

Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - October, 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5

REAL SECTOR6

1.GDP6

IMF cuts further Bosnia's 2015 GDP growth forecast to 2%6

Bosnia's real sector gives mixed signals for Q3 economic growth - DEP6

Southeast European growth to remain sluggish, according to latest IMF report7

Bosnia needs capital, infrastructure investments to foster economic growth - c-bank governor8

IMF mission to visit Bosnia to resume talks on new deal on October 289

IMF slightly lifts Bosnia's 2015 GDP forecast to 2.1%9

Bosnia's economic growth strengthens despite political complexities - Moody's10

2. Inflation11

Bosnia's industrial producer price deflation deepens to 0.6% y/y in September11

Bosnian Serb Republic's CPI deflation deepens to 2.1% y/y in September11

Bosnian Serb Republic industrial PPI stays flat y/y in September12

Bosnia's CPI deflation deepens to 1.8% y/y in September12

Bosnian Federation industrial PPI moves down 1% y/y in September13

Bosnian Federation CPI drops 1.5% y/y in September13

3. Industry and Trade14

Bosnia's industrial production growth slows to 1.7% y/y in September14

Bosnian Federation's industrial production slashes growth to 2.8% y/y in September15

Bosnian Federation's retail sales growth slows to 3.1% y/y in September15

Bosnian Serb Republic industrial production turns to 3.7% y/y fall in September16

Bosnian Serb Republic's retail sales growth speeds to 4.8% y/y in September16

4. Tourism17

Foreign tourist arrivals to Bosnia spike 31.8% y/y in January-August17

Bosnian Serb Republic's foreign tourist arrivals rise 18.9% y/y in January-September17

5. Labour Market18

Bosnia's registered unemployment rate rises to 43.2% in July18

Bosnia's average net wage ticks up 0.1% y/y in August18

Bosnian Federation real net wage grows 0.2% y/y in August18

Bosnia's Serb Republic real wage growth slows to 2.5% y/y in September19

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY19

IMF reportedly ready to negotiate EUR1bn loan agreement with Bosnia19

Bosnia's H1 consolidated budget surplus widens 40% y/y20

Bosnia's Federation parliament upper chamber approves 2015 budget revision21

Bosnian Federation sells entire EUR10.2mn six-month T-bills issue22

Bosnia's Federation sells out EUR15.3mn five-year T-bond issue23

Bosnia's Serb Republic 9-mo public revenues rise 5% y/y23

Bosnia's Serb Republic sells six-month T-bills worth EUR5.1mn23

Bosnia's Serb Republic may revise 2015 budget - finance minister24

Bosnian Serb Republic borrows $300mn from U.S. investment fund24

Bosnia's Serb Republic sells out EUR23mn 5-year T-bond issue25

Bosnia's negative investment position expands 5.1% in 201425

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION25

Share of non-performing loans in Bosnia falls to 14.1% in Q225

Bosnian Serb Republic's banking agency dismisses head of Banka Srpske for allegedly violating regulations26

Bosnia's M1 money supply growth slows to 8.2% y/y at end-September26

Bosnia's FX reserves growth slows to 7% y/y at end-September27

Bosnia's bank assets growth slows to 1.5% y/y in September27

Bosnia's bank deposits growth slows to 5% y/y at end-September27

EXTERNAL SECTOR28

Bosnia's foreign debt grows 11.3% y/y to EUR4.3bn at end-June28

Bosnia's 9-mo foreign trade deficit narrows 7% y/y29

Bosnian Federation foreign trade deficit at EUR1.7bn through September29

Bosnian Serb Republic's 9-mo foreign trade deficit shrinks 14.6% y/y30

STRUCTURAL REFORMS, CORPORATE PLANS30

Bosnia's Federation to borrow EUR50mn from KFAED for key motorway30

UAE's Buroj to sign deal with municipality for construction of EUR4.3bn tourist complex in Bosnia31

Energy Community says Bosnia fails in reforms31

INA-MOL could replace Shell in Bosnian exploration project32

Germany writes off EUR20mn debt of Bosnia34

Bosnian institutions lack transparency - audit office34

EBRD seeks consultant to help Bosnian Federation improve debt, public investment management35

Russia's VTB Bank ready to expand in Bosnian Serb Republic - entity's President Dodik35

Bosnia advances to 79th place in World Bank's 2016 Doing Business ranking35

World Bank to provide EUR660mn to Bosnia in 2016-202036

POLITICS37

EU council says Bosnian Serb Republic's referendum on state-level judiciary challenges country's cohesion37

Energy Community sanctions Bosnia on failure to adopt gas sector regulations38

Bosnia hopes to apply for EU membership by December - president Covic39

Bosnian Federation's president appoints four new ministers39

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