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Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - October, 2016

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 31 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from October 1 until October 30, 2016 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia & Herzegovina during this period.

European Union foreign ministers called on October 17 for Bosnia & Herzegovina to focus on improving the functioning of its judicial institutions and to step up the fight against terrorism and organised crime.

Milorad Dodik, the president of Bosnia's Serb-dominated entity Republika Srpska, and the Croat representative in the Bosnian tripartite presidency, Dragan Covic, secretly support each other with the mutual aim of breaking up Bosnia & Herzegovina, former Croatian President Stjepan Mesic has claimed.

Bosnia & Herzegovina's election body, CIK, confirmed on October 17 that Srebrenica will have its first Serb mayor since the end of the 1992-1995 Bosnian war. Mladen Grujicic, the candidate of all Serb parties in Srebrenica, won the mayoral seat in the October 2 local elections, gaining 54.38% of the votes. Bosniak candidate Camil Durakovic, who was Srebrenica's mayor until the elections, came second with 45.45% support.

Bosnia & Herzegovina's economy grew by 1.4% y/y in the second quarter of 2016, slowing from a revised 1.9% annual increase in the previous three months.

The Energy Community has not extended the sanctions against Bosnia & Herzegovina that were imposed last year due to the country's failure to adopt the Second Energy Package in the gas sector, Foreign Trade Minister Mirko Sarovic said.



Key points:

oCPI deflation slightly eased to 1/% y/y in September

oThe working-day adjusted industrial production increased by 3.6% y/y in September

oThe foreign trade gap narrowed 3.2% y/y to BAM4.95bn (EUR2.53bn) in the first nine months of 2016

Table Of Contents

Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - October, 2016
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5

2.POLITICS6

Parliament of Bosnia's Republika Srpska makes Republic Day secular event6

Bosnian Serb and Croat leaders to "break up Bosnia", former Croatian president claims7

Bosnia's Srebrenica officially gets first Serb mayor as election body issues final local election results8

EU foreign ministers calls on Bosnia to focus on judiciary, fight against corruption9

3.MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW11

IMF mission to review Bosnia's implementation of new arrangement on November 911

4.REAL SECTOR11

4.1.GDP, forecasts11

Bosnia's GDP growth slows to 1.4% y/y in Q211

IMF confirms Bosnia's 2016 GDP growth forecast at 3.0%, among lowest in region12

4.2.Inflation13

Bosnia's industrial producer prices fall 0.4% y/y in September13

CPI deflation in Bosnia cools to 1.1% y/y in September13

4.3.Industry and trade14

4.3.1.Industrial production14

Bosnia's industrial production growth accelerates to 3.6% y/y in September14

4.4.Labour and retail15

4.4.1.Unemployment and wages15

Bosnia's registered unemployment rate rises to 41.7% in August15

Bosnia's net wage returns to growth y/y in August16

Bosnia to borrow $56mn from IBRD to boost employment16

4.4.2.Retail17

Bosnia's retail sales growth accelerates to 7.9% y/y in August17

5.EXTERNAL SECTOR AND TRADE18

5.1.Balance of payments18

Bosnia's Q1 current account gap expands 64.9% y/y to EUR183.3mn18

5.2.Trade18

Bosnia's 9-mo foreign trade deficit narrows 3.2% y/y18

5.3.Foreign direct investment (FDI)19

Bosnia's net FDI more than doubles y/y to EUR66.7mn in Q1 201619

5.4.External debt19

Bosnia's foreign debt falls 0.2% y/y to EUR4.4bn at end-June19

5.5.Foreig reserves20

Bosnia's FX reserves grow 8.8% y/y at end-August20

6.PUBLIC SECTOR20

6.1.Budget20

Bosnian Federation's 7-mo public revenues rise 11.1% y/y20

Bosnia's H1 consolidated budget surplus contracts 6.4% y/y21

Bosnian Republika Srpska's public revenues inch down 0.4% y/y through September21

Bosnia's indirect tax revenue rises 3.11% y/y to EUR2.5bn22

6.2.Government debt22

Bosnian Federation's foreign debt falls to EUR2.6bn at end-September22

Bosnian Federation sells out EUR15.1mn 9-month T-bills issue at negative yield22

Bosnia's Republika Srpska sells EUR15.1mn in 6-month T-bills, above target23

7.FINANCIAL SECTOR AND CAPITAL MARKETS23

7.1.Banking system23

Bosnian bank deposits grow 7.9% y/y at end-August23

Bosnia's bank assets grow 4.2% y/y in August23

Bosnia's M1 money supply grows 14.5% y/y at end-August24

7.2.Credit ratings24

SandP affirms Bosnia's B/B rating with stable outlook24

8.INDUSTRY AND SECTOR NEWS25

Russia lifts ban on vegetable imports from Bosnia25

Energy Community ends sanctions against Bosnia, foreign trade minister says26

Bosnia's Sarajevo bourse launches Islamic index27

9.MAJOR CORPORATE NEWS28

INA's buyout bid for remaining 33% stake in Bosnia's Energopetrol fails28

Bosnia criticised over emissions standards at Tuzla thermal power plant28

Bosnia's Aluminij signs electricity supply deal with Elektroprivreda BiH29

Bosnian securities registry reveals buyer of Bosnalijek stake30

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