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Global BTS Antenna Market Analysis & Forecast, 2015-2019, 7th Edition

  • November 2015
  • -
  • EJL Wireless Research LLC
  • -
  • 208 pages

Summary

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Notice of Changes in Research Categories: We have discontinued the following categories within this antenna report:

Single Band
Multi-Band
Dual Band
Triple Band
Quad Band
Penta Band
Hexa Band

We are transitioning to a port-count model for this edition of the report and going forward for future editions. This is due to the fact that there are definition issues with regards to how many frequency bands an antenna can support and what it is marketed as. The total number of antenna ports provides a better understand of the industry dynamics as more ports are required for higher order MIMO as well as for additional frequency bands at a particular site.

The simple correlation to a multiple frequency band product may be accomplished by equating one frequency band to two antenna ports however this assumes that only a 2T2R MIMO configuration is used. This correlation does not work for 2T4R or 4T4R MIMO configurations.

Please see the Research Methodology chapter for a more detailed explanation.

2014 Review: Record Shipment Levels
2014 broke all prior shipment records within the BTS antenna industry. The global BTS sectorized panel antenna market grew by xx% in 2014 to a record level of x million units, up from x million units in 2013. The FDD product segment (2-12-ports) accounted for x% of the unit volumes, growing x%. The TDD product segment (2/4/8-ports) accounted for x% of total volumes, growing x%. The remaining x% was semi-active integrated antennas, growing x%.

How well did we do in our forecast from a year ago? Our goal remains to stay within +/-10% of actual results relative to our forecast within the near term (12 months), however it remains difficult to project changes in either the India or China markets, nor is it possible to predict when and how large the impact of an operator merger within the industry will cause.

The good news:

We were absolutely correct in our unit volume forecast from the prior edition of this report, with a delta of +1%.
We were absolutely correct in our revenue forecast from the prior edition of this report, with a delta of +1%.
We were within our target goal for sAIA unit volumes with a -4% delta.

The not so good news:

We were slightly outside of our target goal for sAIA revenues with a -14% delta.
We were slightly outside of our target goal for Asia Pacific shipments with a - 14% delta.
We were slightly outside of our target goal for China shipments with a +13%
delta.
We were slightly outside of our target goal for Eastern Europe shipments with a +13% delta.

The really not so good news:

Regionally, we missed our target for North America with a +65% delta in unit volumes
Regionally, we missed our target for Western Europe with a +70% delta in unit volumes
Regionally, we missed our target for India with a +46% delta in unit volumes
Regionally, we missed our target for Africa with a -35% delta in unit volumes

A negative % variance means our forecast was higher than actual shipments while a positive % variance means our forecast was lower than actual shipments.
We would give ourselves a strong score for predicting the overall demand. We still need to improve on our model for North America and Western Europe.

Demand in 2014 was driven primarily by the LTE network deployments in China, most notably China Mobile, as well as LTE network deployments in India. LTE in North America saw signs of weakness by the second half of 2014.

Component shortages plagued the base station industry, artificially keeping shipments lower than demand and artificially skewed base station shipment market share as Huawei
Technologies managed to do a much better job than its competitors in managing its supply chain. The softness in China started at the beginning of Q4 2014 and has continued through 2015 due to the ongoing grafting probe.

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