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Barbados, Guyana and Jamaica Country Risk Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 53 pages

Core Views

We believe that the English-speaking Caribbean will continue to see a modest economic recovery in the coming quarters as US growth continues. A strengthening US consumer will boost tourism to the region, driving growth in tourism-dependent economies. Financial services will continue to struggle due to tightening financial regulation in developed economies, while lower precious metals prices will weaken the macroeconomic outlook for the region's miners. That said, growth will remain stronger in the region's mining-driven economies than in its predominantly tourism-driven countries.

Caribbean economies will continue to face economic headwinds in the coming years in light of rising debt burdens, fixed exchange rate regimes, and modest growth prospects. These factors, combined with our view that financial services sectors will see a significant recovery in the next few years, mean that we do not rule out additional credit events or major balance of payments corrections in some of the small island economies. Major Forecast Changes We now forecast Guyana's fiscal deficit to equal 5.2% of GDP in 2016, a downward revision from 5.0% previously, as the 2016 budget includes new capital expenditure. We have revised our forecast for Jamaican real GDP growth in 2017 to 2.0% from 1.7%, as we have become more bullish on the island's tourism industry as well as investor interest in the country.

Table Of Contents

Barbados, Guyana and Jamaica Country Risk Report Q1 2017
BMI Indices - Brief Methodology 5
Composite Score 5
BMI Risk Index - Barbados 6
BMI Risk Index - Guyana7
BMI Risk Index - Jamaica 8
BMI Index League Tables 9
Regional SWOTS 10
Regional Executive Summary 11
Core Views 11
Major Forecast Changes 11
Key Risk11
Chapter 1 1: Economic Outlook - Barbados 13
Economic Growth Outlook13
Resilient Tourism To Spur Modest Growth 13
Barbados will experience modest growth in coming years, as tourism proves resilient to concerns over Zika and Brexit
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook14
Consolidation Measures Not Enough To Constrain Deficits14
Barbados' fiscal deficit will remain wide in the coming years as the government's austerity measures are stymied by political opposition
Chapter 1 2: 10-Year Forecast - Barbados 17
The Barbadian Economy To 2025 17
A Decade Of Weak Growth Ahead 17
Barbados will struggle with slow growth over the coming decade, as wide current account and fiscal deficits undermine the country's
ability to invest in expanding capacity Tourism will remain a primary driver of economic activity, though the sector's growth will be
Chapter 1 3: Political Outlook - Barbados 21
Domestic Politics21
Lack Of Reform Progress To Weigh On Re-Election Prospects21
Barbados' government will implement its reform agenda over the remainder of its current term, seeking to narrow the fiscal deficit, while
stimulating economic growth However, fiscal consolidation will be highly unpopular, and efforts to stimulate growth largely ineffective,
which will harm the ruling party's re-election prospects in 2018
Long-Term Political Outlook 22
Social Stability, Drug Trafficking Greatest Political Challenges 22
Well-established democratic institutions, strong policy continuity and limited external threats will maintain broad political stability in
Barbados over the coming decade
Chapter 2 1: Economic Outlook - Guyana 25
Economic Growth Outlook25
Multiple Sectors To Support Economic Growth 25
Guyana's headline growth will remain strong over the next several years, as the country benefits from rising prices in the gold market
as well as increased government capital investment Over the next decade, production from significant offshore oil fields will provide
tailwinds to economic growth
Balance Of Payments 26
Rising Gold Exports Will Support External Position 26
Accelerating gold export growth will push Guyana's current account into surplus in 2016 and 2017, allowing Guyana to build gross
international reserves and improve its external position
Chapter 2 2: 10-Year Forecast - Guyana29
The Guyanese Economy To 2025 29
A More Difficult Decade For Growth29
In the coming decade, Guyana will face broad-based macroeconomic deterioration with weaker growth, widening current account
deficits and rising fiscal account shortfalls
Chapter 2 3: Political Outlook - Guyana 33
Domestic Politics33
Oil Discovery Prompts Measures To Improve Investment Climate33
Guyana will increasingly seek to conform to international standards of governance as it attempts to attract foreign investment into its oil
and gas sector
Long-Term Political Outlook 34
Social Challenges, Security Threats Weigh On Outlook 34
Guyana will face a number of significant social obstacles over the course of our 10-year forecast period, such as ethnic tensions,
policymaking deadlock and high levels of poverty
Chapter 3 1: Economic Outlook - Jamaica 37
Economic Growth Outlook37
Economic Recovery Will Remain On Solid Footing37
Jamaica's economy will continue to recover in 2016, on the back of a strong rebound in private consumption
Monetary Policy 38
BoJ To Hike In 2017 As Inflation Picks Up38
Historically low inflation will allow the Bank of Jamaica to keep its benchmark policy rate on hold through the end of 2016, supporting
economic growth However, inflation will begin to pick up in 2017 due to a weakening currency and rising commodity prices, prompting
policymakers to tighten policy
Chapter 3 2: 10-Year Forecast - Jamaica 41
The Jamaican Economy To 202541
Government Reforms To Support Stronger Growth 41
Under the guidance of the IMF, the Jamaican economy will begin to consistently post positive growth figures over the coming decade
Chapter 3 3: Polical Outlook - Jamaica 45
Domestic Politics45
PNP Scandal Will Ensure Holness' Reforms Continue45
The opposition People's National Party's recent campaign financing scandal will undermine their popularity with the Jamaican public,
allowing the ruling Jamaican Labour Party to make significant gains in upcoming local elections
Long-Term Political Outlook 46
Crime And Weak Growth Pose Largest Risks To Stability 46
Jamaica's long-term political stability will be challenged by high levels of crime, elevated youth unemployment and ongoing fiscal
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook49
Global Macro Outlook 49
Austerity Has Peaked, But Populism Is Not Yet Policy 49

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