1. Market Research
  2. > Tourism and Leisure
  3. > Tourism Market Trends
  4. > Cuba, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico Country Risk Report Q1 2017

Cuba, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico Country Risk Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 49 pages

Core Views

Economic activity in the Dominican Republic will decelerate through 2018 as investment and government consumption retreat from previous levels. Tourism and related services will continue to be bright spots, providing tailwinds to the economy. Puerto Rico's economy will remain in recession in the next several years, as fiscal austerity and a restructuring of the territory's debt depress household and government consumption. The Cuban economy holds immense potential given the island's large size and proximity to the lucrative US market. However, investment and growth will depend on political dynamics on both sides of the Florida Straits.

Major Forecast Changes We have delayed our expectations for the unification of Cuba's dual exchange rate regime, and we now expect it will take place by the end of 2018 from end-2017 previously. A lack of information regarding the timeline for unification, combined with policymakers' failure to address it during the Communist Party's congress in April, suggest that it will take longer than we previously expected to come to fruition.

Table Of Contents

Cuba, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico Country Risk Report Q1 2017
BMI Risk Index - Cuba 6
BMI Risk Index - Dominican Republic 7
BMI Risk Index - Puerto Rico 8
BMI Index League Tables 9
Regional SWOT 10
Executive Summary - Cuba 11
Core Views 11
Major Forecast Changes 11
Key Risks 11
Chapter 1 1: Economic Outlook - Cuba 13
Economic Growth Outlook13
Openness Will Support An Acceleration Of Economic Growth 13
Economic growth will pick up in Cuba over the coming years on the back of a rapidly expanding tourism sector and gradual economic
liberalisation The pace of economic growth will be on par with the advancement of orthodox economic reforms, including greater
openness to foreign trade and investment
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 14
Chapter 1 2: 10-Year Forecast - Cuba15
The Cuban Economy To 202515
Reforms And Global Integration To Drive Stronger Growth Over The Next Decade 15
Economic growth in Cuba will pick up in the coming decade, due to incremental reforms on the part of the government and greater
engagement with the global economy
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 15
TABLE: THE CUBAN BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT TWO-STEP16
Chapter 1 3: Political Outlook - Cuba19
Domestic Politics19
Network of International Ties Will Deepen19
Cuba will strengthen and diversify its international partnerships over the coming years, as waning economic assistance from Venezuela
pushes it to pursue new allies
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW 19
Long-Term Political Outlook 20
Political Change To Come, Despite Legacy Of Intransigence 20
The Cuban political system is heading for substantial change and uncertainty, as the Castro brothers prepare to leave office in 2018
after more than 50 years in power
Chapter 2 1: Economic Outlook - Dominican Republic 25
Economic Growth Outlook25
Slower Growth To Be Sustained By Tourism25
Economic activity in the Dominican Republic will decelerate through 2018 as investment and government consumption retreat from
previous levels Tourism and related services will continue to be bright spots, providing tailwinds to the economy
External Trade And Investment Outlook 26
Rising Imports Will Widen Current Account Deficit26
The Dominican Republic's current account deficit will narrow in 2016 before widening in 2017 and beyond Resilient tourism and stable
gold prices will be outweighed by a trade imbalance resulting from increased goods imports
Chapter 2 2: 10-Year Forecast - Dominican Republic 29
The Dominican Republic Economy To 2025 29
Recovery In Tourism To Drive Growth 29
The Dominican Republic's economic outlook is bright over the next decade, with the country set to benefit both directly and indirectly
from growth in the US A strengthening tourism sector, driven by arrivals from the US, will bolster revenues in the sector and feed
through to growth in construction, services, and private consumption
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 29
Chapter 2 3: Political Outlook - Dominican Republic31
Domestic Politics31
Reform Drive Slow Despite Majorities 31
Dominican Republic President Danilo Medina will pursue fiscal consolidation and energy sector liberalisation over the coming years,
benefitting from a legislative majority to pass key legislation However, public pushback will weaken proposed cuts and entrenched
corruption will remain an obstacle to policymaking
Long-Term Political Outlook 32
Economic Improvements To Support Policy Continuity 32
Government policies will remain business-friendly in the Dominican Republic in the coming years, as strong economic growth ensures
the current political direction of the country remains popular
Chapter 3 1: Economic Outlook - Puerto Rico 35
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook35
Sharp Cuts To Expenditure Will Bring Budget To Surplus 35
Puerto Rico ' s fiscal control board will enforce steep cuts to the commonwealth's public expenditures over the coming years, with
healthcare, social transfers and public expenditure receiving the bulk of the cuts While these cuts will help Puerto Rico to address its
ongoing fiscal crisis, they will contribute to the island's ongoing economic recession
Economic Growth Outlook36
Recovery A Long Way Off 36
Puerto Rico will remain mired in recession over the coming years , as a painful internal devaluation and fiscal adjustment play out
While the PROMESA legislation will restore the island to solvency, private consumption and gross fixed capital formation will remain
depressed for the foreseeable future
Chapter 3 2: 10-Year Forecast - Puerto Rico 39
The Puerto Rican Economy To 2025 39
Growth Will Remain Subdued Amid Unfavourable Demographics39
Puerto Rico will remain in recession in the next few years due to a painful internal devaluation The economy will return to growth in the
latter part of our 10-year forecast period, but unfavourable demographics and labour market dynamics will limit the pace of expansion
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 39
Chapter 3 3: Political Outlook - Puerto Rico 41
Domestic Politics41
Fiscal Control Board Members Will Keep Fiscal Consolidation On Track 41
The recently announced members of Puerto Rico's fiscal oversight board come from technocratic backgrounds, and will likely prove to
be sympathetic to the demands of the commonwealth's creditors
Long-Term Political Outlook 42
No Change In Sight To Political Status With The US 42
Puerto Rico's political status as a territory of the US is unlikely to change over the coming decade, given the unfavourable tax effects
that statehood would imply for residents
TABLE: IMPACT OF PUERTO RICO STATEHOOD ON SELECT FEDERAL PROGRAMMES 42
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook45
Global Macro Outlook 45
Austerity Has Peaked,But Populism Is Not Yet Policy45
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS45
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 46
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 47
TABLE: CUBA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC and PUERTO RICO - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS 49

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Global Tourism Spend Analytics to 2020: Accommodation, Entertainment and Sightseeing, Foodservice, Retail, Transportation, Travel Intermediation, Others

Global Tourism Spend Analytics to 2020: Accommodation, Entertainment and Sightseeing, Foodservice, Retail, Transportation, Travel Intermediation, Others

  • $ 14995
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by Canadean Ltd

Summary Tourism Spend (Expenditure under taken on Travel and Tourism related commodities by a tourist within a country. This expenditure is categorized in to accommodation, sightseeing and entertainment, ...

Global Tourism Demand and Flow, 2011 - 2020: Domestic and International Trips Analytics

Global Tourism Demand and Flow, 2011 - 2020: Domestic and International Trips Analytics

  • $ 14995
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by Canadean Ltd

Summary Tourism Demand (Factors that influence time and money spent on tourism. Typical factors include the number of holiday days available to an employee in their country and mean household income) and ...

Global Travel Intermediaries Business, 2011 to 2020

Global Travel Intermediaries Business, 2011 to 2020

  • $ 14995
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by Canadean Ltd

Summary Travel Intermediaries (part of a business that assists in selling travel products and services to customers, which may include airline tickets, car rentals, hotels, railway tickets, and package ...

Enhanced Monthly Statistics

December 2016 $ 9600

Download Unlimited Documents from Trusted Public Sources

Tourism Industry in Caribbean

  • December 2016
    2 pages
  • Tourism  

  • Caribbean  

    Dominican Repub...  

    North America  

View report >

The future of the Business Tourism Industry in France and Europe

  • December 2016
    2 pages
  • Business Touris...  

  • France  

    Europe  

View report >

The future of the Railway Transport Industry in the US

  • December 2016
    8 pages
  • Railway Transpo...  

    Railway Passeng...  

  • United States  

View report >

ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.