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Denmark Country Risk Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 25 pages

Core Views

Danish economic growth will remain weak over the 2016-18 period, with real GDP growth averaging just 1.2% annually. Additionally, the large debt burden of the private sector presents significant systemic risks, and will restrain growth over a longer horizon. The Liberal Party-led minority government is likely to be ousted before its term ends in 2019. This could happen as soon as Q416 if the Liberal Party loses support from its coalition partners amid the annual budget process. A rise in political risk in Europe in 2017 could put upside pressure on the krone-euro currency peg as global investors plough into Danish safe haven assets, but there is almost no danger of the peg giving way.

Major Forecast Changes We have revised up our average current account surplus forecast to 8.8% of GDP between 2016 and 2018, from 6.3% previously, on account of a major restating of the historic balance of payments statistics in October.

Table Of Contents

Denmark Country Risk Report Q1 2017
Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Major Forecast Changes 5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Weak Activity To Spill Over Into 2017 8
Danish economic activity will remain weak in 2017 Although upcoming revisions to national statistics may cast the export sector in
a more favourable light than we are currently anticipating, our overall view on the economy is unlikely to change, as we expect fixed
investment and private consumption to continue to disappoint
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 10
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS 10
Monetary Policy 11
Intervention Could Pick Up In 2017 11
Rising European political risk in 2017 could put the Danish krone's peg to the euro to the test, as was the case amid heavy safe haven
inflows in 2011-12 and 2015 While the peg will undoubtedly be sustained, renewed monetary easing to offset the impact of inflows on
the peg could further inflate real estate prices, potentially storing up problems down the road when policy is normalised
Monetary Policy Framework 12
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS 12
Chapter 2: Political Outlook 15
SWOT Analysis 15
BMI Political Risk Index15
Domestic Politics16
Early Election Risks Rising 16
The risks of a government collapse and snap election being called in Denmark by late 2016 have risen significantly following a dispute
over tax policy Even if it survives this episode, we continue to harbour doubts that the ruling centre-right Liberal Party-led minority
government elected in June 2015 will last through its full four-year term to 2019
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW 16
Long-Term Political Outlook 18
Welfare Reform, Migration Are Key Long-Term Issues 18
Denmark will experience broad political stability over the coming decade, but changes to the welfare state will see divisions emerge
between left and right, and old and young Meanwhile, opposition to immigration will remain significant, and the country's membership in
the EU will come under increasing public scrutiny
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook21
Global Macro Outlook 21
Austerity Has Peaked,But Populism Is Not Yet Policy21
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS21
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 22
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 23
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS 25

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