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Gabon and Rep. Congo Country Risk Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 39 pages

Core Views

A stable currency peg and a large increase in crude oil production will shield economic activity from the worst of the sustained collapse in oil prices in the Republic of Congo. While the government will look to rein in spending to accommodate for lower fiscal revenues, this will pose little headwind to growth given the high proportion of unproductive public expenditure. Despite the relative calm in the wake of the 2016 presidential election, the Republic of Congo faces a challenging political outlook over the next 10 years. Low levels of political inclusion, widespread poverty and inequality and systemic corruption have created tensions between the government and the wider population, which could result in outbursts of violence in the future. Core Views

Gabon's economic growth will accelerate in the years ahead, as the economy gradually recovers from the 2014/15 plunge in oil prices.

The re-election of President Ali Bongo Ondimba in the September 2016 election will be a boon for policy continuity and support the country's broad reform agenda, helping to diversify the economy away from its heavy dependency on the oil sector. The confirmation of President Ali Bongo's re-election by Gabon's constitutional court will act as a boon for the government's drive to diversify the economy. While tensions will remain high as opposition parties and foreign observers question the validity of the result, this will not threaten general political stability over our short-term outlook.

Table Of Contents

Gabon and Rep. Congo Country Risk Report Q1 2017
BMI Index 6
BMI Risk Index - Congo-Brazzaville 6
BMI Risk Index - Gabon 7
BMI Index League Tables 9
Executive Summary - Congo-Brazzaville 11
Core Views 11
Chapter 1 1: Economic Outlook - Congo-Brazzaville13
SWOT Analysis 13
Economic Growth Outlook14
Brent Production Boom Will Sustain Robust Growth 14
A stable currency peg and a large increase in crude oil production will shield economic activity from the worst of the sustained collapse
in oil prices in Congo-Brazzaville While the government will look to rein in spending to accommodate for lower fiscal revenues, this will
pose little headwind to growth given the high proportion of unproductive public expenditure
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 15
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 15
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 15
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS15
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 16
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS 16
Chapter 1 2: 10-Year Forecast - Congo-Brazzaville 17
The Congo Economy To 202517
Structural Weaknesses To Continue Amid Oil Boom17
Economic growth will remain robust in Congo-Brazzaville over our long-term forecast period thanks to rapid production growth in the
oil sector offsetting the impact of the low price of crude in the near term However, the economy will struggle to break free of the same
structural inadequacies it has been guilty of for years, namely a dependence on oil
Chapter 1 3: Political Outlook - Congo-Brazzaville 19
SWOT Analysis 19
Domestic Politics20
Underlying Tensions Remain A Threat To Regime Stability 20
Despite the relative calm in the wake of the 2016 presidential election, the Congo-Brazzaville faces a challenging political outlook over
the next 10 years
Chapter 2 1: Economic Outlook - Gabon25
SWOT Analysis 25
Economic Growth Outlook26
Bongo Re-Election Paves Way For Reform Agenda 26
Gabon's economic growth will accelerate in the years ahead, as the economy gradually recovers from the 2014/15 plunge in oil prices
The re-election of President Ali Bongo Ondimba in the September 2016 election will be a boon for policy continuity and support the
country's broad reform agenda, helping to diversify the economy away from its heavy dependency on the oil sector
GDP By Expenditure Breakdown27
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 27
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 27
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 27
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS28
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS 28
Contents
Chapter 2 2: 10-Year Forecast - Gabon 29
The Gabonese Economy To 2025 29
Government's Diversification Drive Will Yield Long-Term Results29
The Gabonese government's early recognition of the limitations of an oil-dependent economic model will yield some positive results
over our long-term forecast period, with economic growth to accelerate to 2020 and remain robust thereafter Efforts at economic
diversification will help the country avoid some of the structural pitfalls of the region's other oil producers
Chapter 2 3: Political Outlook - Gabon 31
SWOT Analysis 31
Domestic Politics32
Tensions To Continue After Bongo's Confirmation32
The confirmation of President Ali Bongo's re-election by Gabon's constitutional court will act as a boon for the government's drive to
diversify the economy While tensions will remain high as opposition parties and foreign observers question the validity of the result, this
will not threaten general political stability over our short-term outlook
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook35
Global Macro Outlook 35
Austerity Has Peaked,But Populism Is Not Yet Policy35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 37
TABLE: CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS 39
TABLE: GABON - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS39

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