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Kazakhstan and Central Asia Country Risk Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 61 pages

Core Views

The Kazakh economy is past the worst, with a rebound in oil prices offering support for the tenge – mitigating inflationary pressures and allowing for monetary policy easing in the coming months. Strong sovereign position will prevent a collapse of the banking system. Kyrgyzstan's economy will struggle to recover in the coming quarters despite the gradual rebound in commodity prices and rebounding growth. Nevertheless, regulatory and political uncertainty, subdued remittances from Russia, and weak external demand will keep a lid on the country's recovery.

Economic conditions in Tajikistan will continue to deteriorate despite a gradual rebound in commodity prices in the coming quarters. While a credit line arrangement with the International Monetary Fund will help the country avoid a balance of payments crisis, this will come at the expense of huge costs to the economy. Turkmenistan's economic growth prospects will remain weak over the medium term due to subdued hydrocarbon prices, a narrow economic base and poor competitiveness in its non-oil and gas sectors. This will pose risk to domestic political stability as the government's main policy response has been to reduce subsidies to cope with the decrease in fiscal revenue. That said, we believe that a collapse of the authoritarian regime remains a distant possibility given that power is typically derived from elites in the country, and unrest in the country is likely to be curtailed by the repressive state security apparatus. GDP growth in Uzbekistan will slow down in 2016, as the commoditydependent economy struggles to recover from the decline in commodity prices and Russia's economic crisis. Although growth will remain above the regional average, structural deficiencies remain.

Table Of Contents

Kazakhstan and Central Asia Country Risk Report Q1 2017
Executive Summary - Regional13
Core Views 13
Key Risks 13
Chapter 1 1: Economic Outlook - Kazakhstan 15
Economic Growth Outlook15
Recovery Restrained As Economy Struggles To Diversify 15
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 17
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 17
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 17
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS18
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 18
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS 18
Chapter 1 2: 10-Year Forecast - Kazakhstan 19
The Kazakh Economy To 2025 19
Developing Non-Oil Sectors Key To Sustaining Growth 19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 19
Chapter 1 3: Political Outlook - Kazakhstan 21
Domestic Politics21
Weak Recovery And Transition Uncertainty To Stifle Reforms 21
Chapter 1 4: Operational Risk - Kazakhstan 23
Operational Risk 23
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORE 23
Business Crime 24
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO RISK IN KAZAKHSTAN 24
Government Intervention 27
TABLE: BUSINESS TAXES 29
Chapter 2 1: Economic Outlook - Kyrgyzstan 33
Economic Growth Outlook33
Improved China Ties Positive For LT Growth, But ST Growth To Remain Weak 33
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 34
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 34
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 34
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS34
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 35
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS 35
Chapter 2 2: Political Outlook - Kyrgyzstan37
Domestic Politics37
Constitutional Referendum Highlights Fragile State Of Democracy 37
Contents
Chapter 3 1: Economic Outlook - Tajikistan 39
Economic Growth Outlook39
Growth Upgrade Does Not Alter Negative Outlook 39
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 40
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 40
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 41
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS41
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 41
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS 41
Chapter 3 2: Political Outlook - Tajikistan 43
Domestic Politics43
Political Outlook To Remain Highly Unstable43
Chapter 4 1: Economic Outlook - Turkmenistan 45
Economic Growth Outlook45
Dependence On Gas Exports Stagnating Growth 45
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 47
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 47
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 47
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS47
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 48
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS 48
Chapter 4 2: Political Outlook - Turkmenistan 49
Domestic Politics51
Constitutional Amendments Support Indefinite Presidential Rule 49
Chapter 5 1: Economic Outlook - Uzbekistan 51
Economic Growth Outlook51
Political Transition Encouraging For Reform Outlook51
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 52
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 53
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 53
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS53
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 54
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS 54
Chapter 5 2: Political Outlook - Uzbekistan55
Domestic Politics55
Foreign Policy Reset With Political Succession55
The succession to President Islam Karimov will dominate Uzbekistan's politics in 2017, following the upcoming election of interim
President Shavkat Mirziyoyev on December 4 We expect the new president to promote a more market-based economy and reset
foreign relations, lowering regional tensions and political risk
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook57
Global Macro Outlook 57
Austerity Has Peaked, But Populism Is Not Yet Policy 57
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS57
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 58
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 59
TABLE: KAZAKHSTAN and CENTRAL ASIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS61

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