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Norway Country Risk Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 25 pages

Core Views

The Norwegian economy is past the worst of its oil-related economic downturn. However, lower long-term oil prices will keep investment subdued and domestic consumption suppressed. The Norwegian government will continue to expand fiscal policy in order to stimulate demand, by dipping into the country’s sovereign wealth fund. However, the government’s efforts to improve export competitiveness will be slow to bear fruit and the economic diversification process away from oil will be painful. The Conservative Party will maintain its minority coalition with the support of its partner the Progress Party and will win re-election in the September 2017 general elections, albeit falling somewhat short of a majority government.

Table Of Contents

Norway Country Risk Report Q1 2017
Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Past The Worst, But Painful Transition Ahead8
Norwegian economic growth will pick up pace moderately going into 2017 and the worst of the 2015-16 crisis is over However, the
outlook to 2019 continues to look bleak, compared with the years of peak oil prices
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 10
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 11
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 11
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS 11
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 12
Currency Forecast 12
NOK: Comeback To Continue In 2017 12
We project steady appreciation of the Norwegian krone over 2017 and 2018 on the back of rising oil prices boosting economic growth
and bolstering the external accounts Additionally, the currency will be supported by fiscal policy and a central bank that has become
more hawkish
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST 13
Monetary Policy Framework 14
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS 14
Chapter 2: Political Outlook 17
SWOT Analysis 17
BMI Political Risk Index17
Long-Term Political Outlook 18
Europe, Immigration And Russia To Test Long-Term Stability 18
Norway is among the least politically risky countries in the world, but even so, there are some major challenges that the country must
grapple with over the coming decade These include the country's relationship with the rest of Europe, immigration policy and a strained
relationship with Russia
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW 18
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook21
Global Macro Outlook 21
Austerity Has Peaked, But Populism Is Not Yet Policy 21
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS21
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 22
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 23
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS 25

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