1. Market Research
  2. > Financial Services
  3. > Banking Market Trends
  4. > Poland Country Risk Report Q1 2017

Poland Country Risk Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 41 pages

Core Views

Poland's robust real GDP growth will continue throughout 2017 and 2018, driven mainly by household consumption and fixed investment. The National Bank of Poland will start tightening its monetary policy by the end of 2017 on account of strong demand and supply-side inflationary pressures. The right-wing Law and Justice government will continue to slightly widen the fiscal deficit, and now expect Poland to breach the 3.0% of GDP Maastricht criteria threshold in 2017. Major Forecast Changes On the back Brexit induced uncertainty we have revised our real GDP growth forecasts down. We now forecast Poland's economy to expand by 3.1% in 2017 and 3.4% in 2018. Fixed investment and export growth will decline in 2017 due to low confidence.

Table Of Contents

Poland Country Risk Report Q1 2017
Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Major Forecast Changes 5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Growth To Stay Strong But PiS Poses Downside Risk 8
Although real GDP growth will slow in 2017 relative to 2015-2016,
Poland's economy remains in good shape, with growth primarily driven by domestic consumption Strong wage growth and a tight labour
market will prop up household consumption, although potential growth will be constrained by investor-hostile government policies and
Brexit-infused uncertainty
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 10
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS 11
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook11
Government To Push For Fiscal Stimulus11
Poland's budget deficit in 2017 will exceed 3 0% of GDP on the back of an expansionary fiscal policy and slower economic growth
Nevertheless, the public debt ratio and sovereign risk remains relatively low
Structural Fiscal Position 12
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS 13
TABLE: MAIN EXPENDITURE and REVENUE CATEGORIES 13
External Trade And Investment Outlook 14
Widening Current Account Deficit Sign Of Strength 14
Strong household demand and rising oil prices will tip Poland's trade balance back into deficit in 2017 The primary income
account deficit will remain elevated on account of solid domestic growth boosting profit repatriation by foreign firms operating in the
country
Outlook On External Position 15
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE 15
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS 16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS16
Monetary Policy 17
Demand-Driven Inflation To Trigger Monetary Tightening In 2017 17
Strong consumer-led economic growth will trigger demand-side inflationary pressures in the quarters ahead In combination with rising
oil prices, this will prompt the National Bank of Poland to return to a cycle of monetary tightening by the end of 2017
Monetary Policy Framework 18
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS 18
Currency Forecast 19
PLN: Bullish Outlook Despite Risks19
Both technicals and Poland's strong macroeconomic fundamentals point towards zloty strength over the short term Over the long
term, the zloty is set to strengthen further despite mounting political risks
TABLE: PLN CURRENCY FORECAST 19
Contents
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 21
The Polish Economy To 2025 21
Long-Term Future Looks Bright 21
We forecast Polish real GDP growth to average 3 2% between 2016 and 2025, down from 3 8% between 2005 and 2015 Poland
is well placed to avoid the pitfalls of the middle income trap and continue benefitting from large catch-up growth with the rich EU
economies
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 23
SWOT Analysis 23
BMI Political Risk Index23
Domestic Politics24
Despite Strong Support, Criticism Of PiS Mounting 24
After a year in power, the populist Law and Justice government remains hugely popular domestically, while relations with the European
Union have turned sour The government will continue to push for far reaching reforms, dismantling some of the country's democratic
institutions
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW 24
Long-Term Political Outlook 25
Rapidly Growing Challenges To 2025 25
Poland is well positioned to become a regional power over the coming decade However, it faces mounting external challenges
stemming from Russia's increasing assertiveness in Eastern Europe and uncertainty over the future shape of the EU Domestically, the
main challenges emanate from a rise in populism, and social tensions between conservatives and liberals
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 29
Operational Risk 29
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK 29
Business Crime 30
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO RISK IN POLAND 31
Government Intervention 33
TABLE: BUSINESS TAXES 33
TABLE: PERSONAL INCOME TAX BRACKETS34
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook37
Global Macro Outlook 37
Austerity Has Peaked, But Populism Is Not Yet Policy 37
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS 37
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 38
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 39
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS 41

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
China Banking IT Solutions Market Shares, 2015: Market Maintains Stable Growth

China Banking IT Solutions Market Shares, 2015: Market Maintains Stable Growth

  • $ 7500
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by IDC

"China's banking industry is facing three major challenges -- economic slowdown, interest rate liberalization reform, and internet finance, accompanied by dramatic changes in the banking business environment," ...

Blockchain Technology Market by Provider, Application, Organization Size, Vertical, and Region - Global Forecast to 2021

Blockchain Technology Market by Provider, Application, Organization Size, Vertical, and Region - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 5650
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Need for transparency and immutability is driving the growth of the blockchain technology market” MarketsandMarkets estimates the global blockchain technology market to grow from USD 210.2 million ...

China Banking Industry IT Solutions Forecast, 2016-2020

China Banking Industry IT Solutions Forecast, 2016-2020

  • $ 5500
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by IDC

"China's banking industry is facing three major challenges -- economic slowdown, interest rate liberalization reform, and internet finance, accompanied by dramatic changes in the banking business environment. ...

Uk Wealth Report 2016

September 2016 $ 4995

Italy Wealth Report 2016

September 2016 $ 4995

ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.