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Construction in Venezuela - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2019

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Timetric
  • -
  • 66 pages

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Synopsis
In real terms, the Venezuelan construction industry’s output value contracted from US$43.4 billion in 2013 to US$39.0 billion in 2014. The decline was mainly due to high inflation, a large budget deficit and government policies that limited domestic and foreign investments in the country. This caused delays in several infrastructure projects, weakening business confidence. The economic contraction, a weak property market, subdued public spending and lack of investor confidence, the construction industry is expected to decline further over the forecast period (2015–2019). Moreover, high levels of political intervention and corruption, an anti-business environment, stringent foreign currency control, and an increase in black market sales will also contribute to the industry’s decline. In real terms, the industry’s output value is expected to contract by an annual average of -1.48% over the forecast period, compared to 1.63% growth during the review period (2010–2014).

Summary
Timetric’s Construction in Venezuela – Key Trends and Opportunities to 2019 report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights into the Venezuelan construction industry including: - The Venezuelan construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and type of construction activity - Analysis of equipment, material and service costs across each project type within Venezuela - Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, and the risks and opportunities they present to participants in the Venezuelan construction industry - Profiles of the leading operators in the Venezuelan construction industry - Data highlights of the largest construction projects in Venezuela

Scope
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Venezuela It provides: - Historical (2010-2014) and forecast (2015-2019) valuations of the construction industry in Venezuela using construction output and value-add methods - Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by project type - Breakdown of values within each project type, by type of activity (new construction, repair and maintenance, refurbishment and demolition) and by type of cost (materials, equipment and services) - Analysis of key construction industry issues, including regulation, cost management, funding and pricing - Detailed profiles of the leading construction companies in Venezuela

Reasons To Buy
- Identify and evaluate market opportunities using Timetric's standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies - Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts - Understand the latest industry and market trends - Formulate and validate business strategies using Timetric's critical and actionable insight - Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures - Evaluate competitive risk and success factors

Key Highlights
- Currency devaluation and high inflation have severely undermined Venezuela’s economic prospects. According to Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV), the country’s annual inflation rate increased from 63.4% in August 2014 to 68.5% by December 2014. Rising prices, a decline in purchasing power, and a shortage of food and consumer goods have adversely affected consumer confidence. The Venezuelan Bolivar depreciated against the US dollar by nearly 69.0% in February 2015, when it moved to a partial free floating currency regime, thereby making imported products more expensive. This had an impact because the country imports 96.0% of its goods. In its budget bill presented to the National Assembly in October 2015, the Venezuelan government forecasts an inflation rate of 60.0% for 2016. The high inflation and a deteriorating business environment are expected to challenge construction industry growth over the forecast period. - In a bid to revive the country’s housing market and ensure good quality homes, the government introduced the Great Housing Mission in 2011, under which the government plans to construct 3 million new housing units by 2019. In October 2015, the Venezuelan ministry of housing announced that 739,154 units have been constructed since mid-2011 under the government’s mass housing construction program. Around 350,000 new housing units were built in the country between 2011 and 2012, and more than 200,000 units were built in 2013. The government aims to construct 700,000 units by the end of 2015. Under the program, the families, particularly which were affected by the heavy rains in 2010 and 2011 in the country, will get good quality houses. Consequently, it will support residential construction activities in the country over the forecast period - Venezuela is one of the world's largest producers of oil. The oil and gas industry is vital to its economic growth and accounts for around 95.0% of all exports earnings. With the aim of increasing oil production capacity from 2.9 million barrels per day in 2013 to 6.0 million barrels per day by 2019, state oil company PDVSA announced plans in 2014, to invest VEF4.2 trillion (US$420.0 billion) by 2019. Plans to increase production capacity will support the energy and utilities construction market’s growth over the forecast period. However, the decline in oil prices from US$107.5 per barrel in June 2014 to US$45.9 per barrel in October 2015 hampered investor confidence and will affect market growth over the forecast period. - In a bid to stimulate the country’s housing market and maintain a balance between supply and demand for affordable housing, the Venezuelan government introduced new housing law in 2014. Under the new law, home owners with three or more housing units with rented units for more than 20 years, are obliged to sell rented units to tenants at a fair price. The law is expected to reduce oligopolies in the housing market; the government believes the new law will also tackle the country’s chronic housing shortage. - In terms of the quality of rail and road infrastructure, the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2014–2015, ranked Venezuela 99th of 148 economies. The government devised the Railway Development Plan 2006'2030 to improve the country’s rail network, with the aim of constructing 14,000km of new railway lines to connect all major cities by 2030. This is expected to support the construction activity in the infrastructure construction market over the forecast period.

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