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Telecoms total revenue in Western Europe (WE) will continue to decline, driven by market maturity, falling prices and competition. This report summarises our 5-year forecast for WE and provides commentary on five key countries in the region: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom.

Table Of Contents

The Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2015-2020

Table of Contents


5.Executive summary


6.Executive summary


7.Worldwide trends


8.Worldwide: Developing regions will have the highest revenue growth, but North America will have the largest retail revenue


9.Worldwide: Mobile penetration will increase to 108% by 2020, driven by service take-up in the SSA, EMAP and DVAP regions


10.Worldwide: LTE's share of connections will be the highest in NA (92%) and DVAP (84%), while SSA will lag behind (5%)


11.Worldwide: Over-the-top (OTT) services and converged bundle services will have a downward pressure on mobile ARPU


12.Regional trends


13.WE: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline, at a CAGR -1.5%, due to market maturity, price competition and OTT services


14.WE: Total penetration will not grow in most countries, but many users will migrate from prepaid to contract plans


15.WE: LTE will rapidly become the dominant mobile technology, boosted by the launch of VoLTE services


16.WE: Next-generation services will dominate the mobile and fixed broadband markets in Western Europe by 2020


17.WE: Smartphones will become the default handset type, with penetration exceeding 100% of the population


18.WE: Declining prices and competition from OTT services will cause ARPU to continue to fall during the forecast period


19.WE: ARPU will decline, offset in part by mobile data services revenue and consolidations


20.Country-level trends


21.France: More smartphones and LTE in the customer base will offset the impact of converged bundles on ARPU Country 2


22.Germany: Quadruple-play offers will put pressure on handset ARPU, and drive users from prepaid to contract deals


23.Italy: LTE technology gained strength in 2015 and the potential merger of 3 Italia and Wind may ease price competition


24.Spain: ARPU will be more resilient as LTE gains momentum, and fixed-mobile bundles may reduce churn


25.UK: The pending mergers of BT and EE, as well as Three and O2, will alter the competitive landscape significantly


26.Forecast methodology and assumptions


27.We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics


28.Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers


29.A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities


30.About the authors and Analysys Mason


31.About the authors


32.About Analysys Mason


33.Research from Analysys Mason


34.Consulting from Analysys Mason


List of figures:



Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 2: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide


Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2010-2020


Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2014 and 2020


Figure 5: Mobile ARPU by region and worldwide, 2010-2020


Figure 6: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020


Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020


Figure 9a: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), northern Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 9b: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), southern Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Western Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Western Europe, 2020


Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2014 and 2020


Figure 13a: Mobile ARPU by country, northern Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 13b: Mobile ARPU by country, southern Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Western Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Western Europe


Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, France, 2014-2020


Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Germany, 2014-2020


Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Italy, 2014-2020


Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Spain, 2014-2020


Figure 21: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, UK, 2014-2020


Figure 22: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology


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