Table of Contents
PharmaPoint: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2023
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a retrovirus that infects the cells of the immune system, destroying or impairing their function. As the infection progresses, the immune system becomes increasingly weaker, making the infected person more susceptible to other infections. Since the first anti-HIV drug, GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK’s) Retrovir (azidothymidine), was approved in 1987, major improvements have been made in the field of antiretroviral therapy (ART). This rapid progress has been headlined by the emergence of once-daily, single-tablet regimens (STRs) such as Gilead Science's Atripla (efavirenz/emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate [TDF]), which offer patients an unparalleled level of convenience.
GlobalData projects the global HIV marketplace - which, for the purposes of this report, comprises nine major pharmaceutical markets (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, China) - to experience modest growth during the forecast period. This growth will be driven primarily by the highly anticipated arrivals of novel integrase inhibitor- (INI-) and protease inhibitor- (PI-) based STRs, which include ViiV Healthcare’s Triumeq (dolutegravir/abacavir/lamivudine), Gilead’s Quad 2 (elvitegravir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide fumarate [TAF]), and Gilead’s and Janssen’s darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/TAF. Nevertheless, looming patent expiries of high-grossing branded drugs in the US, 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), and Japan, along with compulsory licensing and generic erosion in Brazil and China, are expected to curtail market growth.
Key Questions Answered
- How will the HIV market landscape in the 9MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, China) change from 2013-2023?
- What are the most promising late-stage pipeline drugs in HIV?
- How do the clinical and commercial attributes of late-stage pipeline therapies compare with one another, and against existing treatment options?
- What are the unmet needs in HIV treatment management?
- What drivers and barriers will affect HIV therapeutics sales in the 9MM over the forecast period?
- The global HIV therapeutics market was worth approximately $14 billion in 2013, and GlobalData projects this market to reach a total of $15 billion in sales by 2023, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 0.9%. These sales are expected to come predominantly from the US market, as financial austerity measures remain a primary barrier to the growth of the HIV market in the other countries covered in this report.
- Over GlobalData’s 2013-2023 forecast period, the increased uptake of STRs is expected to drive market growth. KOLs interviewed by GlobalData expect that INI-based STRs - led by ViiV’s Triumeq and Gilead’s Quad 2 - will dominate the marketplace for the duration of the forecast period.
- The most notable barriers of growth over the forecast period include patent expiries of key HIV drugs in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan) and compulsory licensing in Brazil and China.
- Overview of HIV, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and current management strategies.
- Topline HIV market revenue from 2013-2023. Annual cost of therapy (ACOT) and major pipeline product sales in this forecast period are included.
- Key topics covered include current treatment options, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting HIV therapeutics sales in the 9MM.
- Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, synopses of innovative early-stage projects, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline products.
- Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global HIV therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
Reasons to buy
- Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global HIV therapeutics market.
- Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the HIV therapeutics market in the future.
- Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
- Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
- Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments, and strategic partnerships.
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