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UK Retail Sector Summary Forecasts to 2019

  • January 2014
  • -
  • Verdict Retail
  • -
  • 30 pages

Summary
A unique forecasting tool providing dynamic forecasts and analysis of market demand and price pressures. This is a summary report covering total retail, sectors and channels - clothing and footwear, DIY and gardening, electricals, furniture and floorcoverings, food and grocery, health and beauty, homewares, music and video and books.

Key Findings
- Brief review of economic trends and how they impact retail, explaining how we believe key economic metrics will evolve over the next five years

- Forecasts of how overall retail and retail sectors will fare over the next five years, examining volume, inflation and overall growth rates

- Category level forecasts are provided to fully inform growth strategies

Synopsis
Verdict forecasts overall UK retail will grow by 16.5% over the next five years, double that of the previous five (8.0%).

The improving economy, consumer confidence and population growth will all drive higher spending.

Home-related sectors will return to growth and start to take more share of overall spending as the housing market improves.

Reasons To Buy
- How will the economic recovery impact my retail sector and when?

- Which retail sectors will perform the best through 2014-19? Which sectors should my business focus on?

- How will fast will online sales penetration grow over the next five years?

- Which sectors will be most impacted by high unemployment?

- Will inflation reach the 2.0% BoE target, and what will happen as a result? How long will this last, and will it stimulate a rise in interest rates?

Table Of Contents

UK Retail Sector Summary Forecasts to 2019
Table of Contents
1 Overview
2 Summary
2.1 Definitions
2.2 Key findings
2.2.1 Growth drivers
2.2.2 Growth inhibitors
2.3 Strategies for success
2.3.1 The customer must be central to retail strategies
3 Retail Expenditure Summary
3.1 Highest five-year growth rate since 2002-07
4 UK Economic Forecasts
4.1 Economic stability returns
4.1.1 Employment continues to rise
4.1.2 Interest rate rise threatens
4.1.3 Low inflation eases pressure on consumers' wallets
4.1.4 Consumers save less as confidence returns
4.1.5 Improved housing market supports growth in home related sectors
5 Online Expenditure
5.1 Definition
5.2 Summary
5.2.1 Online set to take 16.9% share of total retail spend in 2020
6 Methodology
7 Appendix
7.1 About Verdict Retail
7.2 Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: UK retail expenditure definition, 2015
Table 2: UK online expenditure definition, 2015

List of Figures
Figure 1: UK retail expenditure (£bn) and growth (%), 2015e and 2020e
Figure 2: UK retail expenditure (£bn) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e
Figure 3: UK retail expenditure growth drivers (%), 2010-20e
Figure 4: UK retail expenditure sector shares (%), 2015e and 2020e
Figure 5: UK retail expenditure sector changes (£bn), 2020e on 2015
Figure 6: UK retail expenditure sector growth (%), 2015-20e
Figure 7: UK retail expenditure, food and non-food shares (%), 2010, 2015e and 2020e
Figure 8: UK gross domestic product (£m) and growth year-on-year (%), 2010-20e
Figure 9: UK employment numbers (millions) and growth year-on-year (%), 2010-20e
Figure 10: UK unemployment numbers (millions) and share of economically active (%), 2010-20e
Figure 11: Earnings growth and CPI inflation (%), 2011-14
Figure 12: UK interest rates (%), 2010-20e
Figure 13: UK inflation growth year-on-year (%), 2010-20e
Figure 14: UK savings ratio (%), 2010-20e
Figure 15: England and Wales housing transactions (000s) and growth year-on-year (%), 2005-20e
Figure 16: England and Wales housing average prices (£) and growth year-on-year (%), 2010-20e
Figure 17: UK online expenditure (£bn) and growth year-on-year (%), 2010-20e
Figure 18: UK online sector expenditure (£bn), 2015e and 2020e
Figure 19: UK online sector growth (%), 2015-20e e
Figure 20: UK online spending as a share of total sector spending (%), 2015
Figure 21: UK online spending as a share of total sector spending (%), 2020e

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