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Austria Country Risk Report 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 23 pages

Core Views Austrian real GDP growth will accelerate in 2016 but economic activity will lag behind regional peers, despite improving external demand from the eurozone. At a federal level, support for the Freedom Party (FPÖ) exceeds that of either the SPÖ or ÖVP, which we expect to hold throughout 2016. The FPÖ is now the junior government coalition member in two Austrian states (Burgenland and Upper Austria).

Table Of Contents

Austria Country Risk Report 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Road To Recovery Ahead8
Austrian GDP growth will be mainly driven by strong internal demand in the years ahead The government's tax reforms will boost
household consumption, while public spending will increase due to higher expenditure on migrants in 2016 and 2017
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: 10 YEAR GDP FORECAST10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS 11
Chapter 2: Political Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Political Risk Index 13
Domestic Politics 14
Border Controls To Hurt EU And Trade14
Austria's unilateral decision to reinstate border controls along its southern border will put more pressure on the EU to find a common
answer to the refugee question Although the policy will bolster the government's short-term approval ratings, we expect Austrian trade
to suffer in the quarters ahead
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW14
Chapter 3: Operational Risk 17
SWOT Analysis 17
Operational Risk Index 17
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook 19
Global Macro Outlook 19
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth19
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS19
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %20
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%) 20
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %21
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS23

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