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Israel Country Risk Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 41 pages

Core Views

Political risks have increased sharply, with more than one hundredIsraeli and Palestinian deaths recorded between October andNovember 2015, and with no sign of appeasement in tensions. PrimeMinister Benjamin Netanyahu controls a coalition with a majority ofjust one seat in the Knesset and it is likely that it will not be ableto see out its four-year term. Economic growth will accelerate overthe coming quarters, as government spending increases, and asexports and private consumption pick up following one-off slumps.

Table Of Contents

Israel Country Risk Report Q1 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Domestic Politics 8
Risk Of Full-Scale Conflict Rising8
The cycle of violence between Israelis and Palestinians will continue over the coming weeks, increasing the risk of a wider conflict
between Hamas and Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) This would pose significant downside risks to Israel's economic growth
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW8
Long-Term Political Outlook 10
Long-Lasting Peace With The Palestinians Unlikely10
We do not expect a long-lasting peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians to be reached over the coming decade Israel
will also continue to face external security threats from Hizbullah and Iran That said, it will withstand these challenges due to elevated
levels of internal cohesion and the strength of its security forces
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Index 13
Economic Growth Outlook 14
Economic Slump Coming To An End14
Israeli growth will accelerate in 2016, as government spending
increases following a year of capped expenditure in the absence of a budget, and as exports and private consumption pick up following
one-off slumps
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 15
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS15
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS15
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS16
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS16
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 16
Deficit To Increase Regardless Of Coalition Fate16
Despite the Israeli budget for 2015 and 2016 passing the first of three readings in the Knesset, tensions within the coalition remain high and
could lead to the government falling before the adoption of the financial framework
Monetary Policy 18
Dovish Stance To Continue In 201618
The Bank of Israel (BOI) will remain wary not to hike its policy rate too soon and too abruptly over the coming quarters, as weakness in
global growth and low commodity prices provide important downside risks to domestic economic activity and delay inflation reaching the
BOI's target band of between 10 and 30%
Export Labelling 19
Political - Not Economic - Cost From EU Export Labelling19
The EU's recommendation to label goods from Israeli settlements in the West Bank will have a negligible impact on the Israeli economy,
but will contribute to further isolate the country politically on the international stage
Economic Impact Violence 20
Wave Of Violence Worsening Economic Outlook20
The current wave of violence in Israel will continue for the remainder of 2015 at least, providing a substantial drag on private
consumption and business confidence
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 23
The Israeli Economy To 2024 23
Steady Expansion Over Coming Decade23
Israel's economy will undergo a steady expansion over the coming decade, driven by elevated export and gross fixed capital formation
growth Political risks will remain significant and the key downside risk to growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 27
SWOT Analysis 27
Operational Risk Index 27
Operational Risk 28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK28
Education 29
TABLE: MENA - EDUCATION RISK30
TABLE: TERTIARY EDUCATION ENROLMENT32
Government Intervention 34
TABLE: MENA - GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION RISK34
TABLE: INCOME TAX BRACKETS35
TABLE : REPRESENTATIVE MUNICIPAL TAX BY REGION 36
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 39
Global Outlook 39
Emerging Markets Bending, Not Breaking39
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS39
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %40
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 40
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %41

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