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Netherlands Country Risk Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 19 pages

Core Views

The Netherlands will most likely hold general elections in H216.The rise in the popularity of far-right political parties, as well asuncertainty over potential coalition partners are the main factorsbehind the delay in the early ballot.While the recovery in the Dutch economy remains on track, wehighlight key risks stemming from the vulnerabilities of its mortgagemarket. For now, however, our core scenario remains that these riskswill be contained due to the strengthened banking system and thestrong fiscal position of the sovereign.

Table Of Contents

Netherlands Country Risk Report Q1 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Domestic Politics 8
Early Parliamentary Elections Delayed Until Latter Stages of 20168
The Netherlands will most likely hold general elections in H216 The rise in the popularity of far-right political parties, as well as
uncertainty over potential coalition partners are the main factors behind the delay in the early ballot
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 11
SWOT Analysis 11
BMI Economic Risk Index 11
Economic Growth Outlook 12
Mortgage Market Vulnerabilities Sizeable But Containable12
While the recovery in the Dutch economy remains on track, we
highlight key risks stemming from the vulnerabilities of its mortgage market For now, however, our core scenario remains that these risks
will be contained due to the strengthened banking system and the strong fiscal position of the sovereign
Chapter 3: Operational Risk 15
SWOT Analysis 15
Operational Risk Index 15
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook 17
Global Outlook 17
Emerging Markets Bending, Not Breaking17
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS17
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %18
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 18
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %19

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