1. Market Research
  2. > Financial Services
  3. > Banking Market Trends
  4. > Portugal Country Risk Report Q1 2016

Portugal Country Risk Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 23 pages

Core Views

Portugal’s rebound will remain on track in 2016 underpinned byfiscal expansion by the new Socialist government, and continuedrebound in private consumption. However, growth will peak in 2016,and slow down in the coming years, as delayed structural reformsand high debt levels will impede Portugal’s ability to develop itsproductive capacities and shift away from consumption dependenceand towards production and export- oriented growth model.While weeks of political stalemate following Portugal’s October 4general election ended with the Socialist Party being invited to form aminority government on November 24, political uncertainty will remainin play in the coming quarters. Reversal of austerity will result in thedeterioration in Portuguese fiscal and debt metrics. While we expecta rise in the political risk premium, ECB backstops will prevent anexcessive rise in Portugal’s government debt yields.Forecast Changes

We have adjusted upward our real GDP growth forecast for 2016 - to1.7% from 1.6% previously as the positive impact on growth fromlower oil prices, weaker euro and liquidity boost to the banking sectorfrom the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programmeseem to be slightly stronger than we initially estimated. Nevertheless,we maintain our subdued growth outlook for the country in themedium- to long term, mainly on account of Portugal’s hefty debtburden and delayed structural reform, which will limit the country’sgrowth potential.

Table Of Contents

Portugal Country Risk Report Q1 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Forecast Changes5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Domestic Politics 8
Left-Wing Government Presages An Unstable 20168
While weeks of political stalemate following Portugal's October 4 general election ended with the Socialist Party being invited to form a
minority government on November 24, political uncertainty will remain in play in the coming quarters Reversal of austerity will result in
the deterioration in Portuguese fiscal and debt metrics
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 11
SWOT Analysis 11
BMI Economic Risk Index 11
Economic Growth Outlook 12
Rebound On Track But Growth To Peak In 201612
Portugal's rebound will remain on track in 2016 underpinned by fiscal expansion by the new Socialist government, and continued
rebound in private consumption However, growth will peak in 2016, and slow down in the coming years, as delayed structural reforms
and high debt levels will impede Portugal's ability to develop its productive capacities and ability to shift away from consumption
dependence and towards production and export-oriented growth model
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 15
The Portuguese Economy To 2024 15
Crisis An Opportunity To Improve Long-Term Growth15
The near-term outlook for Portugal will be shaped heavily by the measures its government must undertake to corral the fiscal deficit and
bring national debt levels under control However, beyond the immediate term, Portugal will have to grapple with improving its growth
prospects if it is to escape from the debt trap
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS15
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 19
SWOT Analysis 19
Operational Risk Index 19
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 21
Global Outlook 21
Emerging Markets Bending, Not Breaking21
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS21
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %22
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 22
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %23

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Ahmad

+1 718 618 4302

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
China Banking IT Solutions Market Shares, 2015: Market Maintains Stable Growth

China Banking IT Solutions Market Shares, 2015: Market Maintains Stable Growth

  • $ 7500
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by IDC

"China's banking industry is facing three major challenges -- economic slowdown, interest rate liberalization reform, and internet finance, accompanied by dramatic changes in the banking business environment," ...

Blockchain Technology Market by Provider, Application, Organization Size, Vertical, and Region - Global Forecast to 2021

Blockchain Technology Market by Provider, Application, Organization Size, Vertical, and Region - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 5650
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Need for transparency and immutability is driving the growth of the blockchain technology market” MarketsandMarkets estimates the global blockchain technology market to grow from USD 210.2 million ...

China Banking Industry IT Solutions Forecast, 2016-2020

China Banking Industry IT Solutions Forecast, 2016-2020

  • $ 5500
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by IDC

"China's banking industry is facing three major challenges -- economic slowdown, interest rate liberalization reform, and internet finance, accompanied by dramatic changes in the banking business environment. ...

Uk Wealth Report 2016

September 2016 $ 4995

Italy Wealth Report 2016

September 2016 $ 4995

ref:plp2015

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.