1. Market Research
  2. > Financial Services
  3. > Banking
  4. > Retail Banking Market Trends
  5. > Qatar Country Risk Report Q1 2016

Qatar Country Risk Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 37 pages

Core Views

Qatar's short-term political risk profile remains among the moststable in the region. Despite enjoying little in the way of democraticfreedom, Qataris benefit from massive hydrocarbon wealth which isspread generously across the country's native population and enjoythe highest per capita GDP in the world. A small population – andone without much inclination to protest against the government –will keep the country insulated from large-scale public unrest inthe immediate term.Despite tightening liquidity conditions and the government's shift toa more conservative fiscal stance, Qatar's economic growth trajectoryremains positive. The bulk of the country's investment planswill continue, supporting infrastructure growth and the expansionof the services economy. We forecast real growth of 5.9% in 2016and 5.5% in 2017 (retaining 2004 as our base year).Lower hydrocarbons prices do not present a significant threat toQatar's fiscal sustainability. Nevertheless, the government will seekto tighten control over public spending and rationalise Qatar's vastpipeline of infrastructure projects – a trend that will be positive forthe economy over the longer run.Qatar's decision to send 1,000 ground troops to Yemen – nearly 10%of its armed forces – marks a decisive milestone in the country'sforeign policy. The move aligns Qatar more closely with its Gulfneighbours, but carries domestic risks and comes with little benefit.

Table Of Contents

Qatar Country Risk Report Q1 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Foreign Policy 8
Regime Not At Risk From Greater Austerity8
While the fall in international energy prices will force greater fiscal discipline in the coming years and test the Gulf regimes' popularity,
Qatar will remain the regional state most well placed to navigate the new environment
TABLE: POLITICTAL OVERVIEW8
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
Limited Challenges For The Coming Decade9
We find it hard to argue that political instability could become a core scenario in Qatar Nevertheless, with the government playing
the role of conflict mediator in one of the hottest international conflict flashpoints in the world, in addition to having a growing young
population and increasing number of expatriates, Qatar will not be immune to external and internal shocks in the long run
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Index 13
Economic Growth Outlook 14
Sailing Through New Headwinds14
Despite tightening liquidity conditions and the government's shift to a more conservative fiscal stance, Qatar's economic growth
trajectory remains positive
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 15
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS16
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS16
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS17
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS17
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS17
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 18
Strong Public Finances Will Support Bonds18
Qatar's public finances remain among the strongest in the region, an attribute that the government's ongoing shift towards fiscal
prudence will only reinforce
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY18
Banking Sector 20
Greater Liquidity Constraints To Weigh On Asset Growth20
Qatar's commercial banking sector will report a modest slowdown in growth over 2016, as deposit pressures rise amidst the continuing
slump in global energy prices We forecast the pace of asset expansion slowing to 76% by the end of 2015, before picking up slightly to
98% in 2016
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 23
The Qatari Economy To 2024 23
Solid Long-Term Growth Prospects23
The outlook for the Qatari economy over the next 10 years is positive, particularly given the positive outlook on the hydrocarbon sector
and our view that the country will continue recording substantial current account surpluses
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk25
SWOT Analysis25
Operational Risk Index25
Operational Risk 26
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK26
Education 27
TABLE: MENA - EDUCATION RISK28
TABLE: ENROLMENT IN UNIVERSITIES29
Government Intervention 31
TABLE: MENA - GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION RISK32
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook35
Global Outlook35
Emerging Markets Bending, Not Breaking35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %36
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %37

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
The Global Wealth Market in 2016; Analyzing 69 country wealth markets worldwide.

The Global Wealth Market in 2016; Analyzing 69 country wealth markets worldwide.

  • $ 5250
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Verdict Financial

Summary The global wealth market is on a continuous growth path. Worldwide liquid onshore assets will exceed $100tn no later than 2017. But the market is not homogenous: rates and reasons for growth diffe ...

HNW Offshore Investment: Booking Center Preferences 2016

HNW Offshore Investment: Booking Center Preferences 2016

  • $ 5250
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by Verdict Financial

Summary 2015 was a weak year for the global offshore market. However, there have been clear winners and losers as the dynamics of the offshore markets continue to shift. The recent focus of most Western ...

Future of Financial Services

Future of Financial Services

  • $ 4950
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Frost & Sullivan

Growth in FinTech is Shaping the Future of Invisible Finance & Virtual Banking The financial services industry is on the brink of disruption, as the use of technology poses a challenge to market players ...

Global Bitcoin Industry

September 2016 $ 4950

Mass Affluents: Channel Use In China

September 2016 $ 3450

ref:plp2015

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.