1. Market Research
  2. > Materials
  3. > Metals Market Trends
  4. > Sierra Leone & Liberia Country Risk Report Q1 2016

Sierra Leone & Liberia Country Risk Report Q1 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 43 pages

Core Views

Real GDP growth in Liberia will come in at 2.3% in 2016, on theback of the post-Ebola recovery, infrastructure investment and somelimited growth in iron ore production.The slump in the iron ore price will significantly weigh on growth,pushing back investment plans and reducing exports.Political stability continues to improve as the country recovers fromits civil war, although the drawdown of UN forces will test the authorities’capabilities as 2017 elections approach.Core Views

We expect Sierra Leone will begin its economic recovery in 2016,forecasting the economy will enjoy real GDP growth of 4.8%, followinga massive 20.6% contraction in 2015. This will be driven bybase effects, the effective end of the Ebola crisis and a more positiveoutlook for the iron ore mining sector.The country is enjoying increasing levels of political and social stability,continuing its recovery from its ruinous civil war, although theEbola outbreak has increased the risk of social and political unrest.Violent crime rose as the disease ravaged the country.

Table Of Contents

Sierra Leone and Liberia Country Risk Report Q1 2016
BMI Index 6
BMI Risk Index - Sierra Leone6
BMI Risk Index - Liberia7
Executive Summary - Liberia 11
Core Views11
Key Risks 11
Chapter 11: Economic Outlook - Liberia 13
SWOT Analysis 13
Economic Growth Outlook 14
2016 Recovery Muted By Commodity Weakness14
Real GDP growth in Liberia will pick up in 2016, but will there considerable downward pressures remain The most acute of these is the
expectation that iron ore prices will remain low, although political risk will also dampen investor appetite
Chapter 12: 10-Year Forecast - Liberia 17
The Liberian Economy To 2025 17
Extractive Industries Will Drive Growth17
Our previously bullish long-term outlook for Liberia has been knocked off course by the Ebola outbreak Although growth will still be
robust, it will be slower than anticipated There also remain significant infrastructure challenges
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS17
Chapter 13: Political Outlook - Liberia 21
SWOT Analysis 21
Domestic Politics 22
A Myriad Of Political Risks As Elections Approach22
International investors will grow increasingly wary towards Liberia in the run-up to 2017 presidential elections as the country faces a
myriad of political challenges Corruption scandals, the drawdown of UN troops and a likely change of the ruling party following the vote
will all exacerbate political risk
Long-Term Political Outlook 23
Putting The War Behind It23
Liberia will continue on its road towards becoming a stable democracy over the coming decade, steadily recovering from its horrific civil
war However, poverty, inequality and corruption will remain major challenges to stability, and the Ebola crisis threatens to set back
advances
Executive Summary - Sierra Leone 25
Core Views25
Key Risks25
Chapter 21: Economic Outlook - Sierra Leone 27
SWOT Analysis 27
Economic Growth Outlook 28
A Return To Growth In 201628
Sierra Leone will enjoy a return to growth in 2016 and 2017 as a recovery in iron ore production will begin to offset low prices and
partially offset the massive economic contraction seen in 2015 Growth will be bolstered by a pick-up in private consumption and a
number of major infrastructure projects
Chapter 22: 10-Year Forecast - Sierra Leone 31
The Sierra Leonean Economy To 2025 31
Ebola After-effects Will Continue To Weigh On Growth31
Our long-term growth forecasts for Sierra Leone have been revised down as a result of the Ebola crisis Delayed investment into
important growth industries such as iron ore mining will weigh on future economic activity
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS31
Chapter 23: Political Outlook - Sierra Leone 35
SWOT Analysis 35
Domestic Politics 36
Third-Term Fears Will Exacerbate Political Risk36
We do not expect that any attempt by Sierra Leonean President Ernest Bai Koroma to extend his time in office will be successful, but
concerns over the matter will exacerbate political tensions in the run-up to scheduled November 2017 elections Regardless of what
political party eventually wins the next premiership, we envisage little differentiation in terms of policies
Long-Term Political Outlook 37
Stability Will Continue Despite Ebola Upheaval37
Sierra Leone will enjoy increasing political and social stability over the coming decade as it continues to recover from its civil war
Nevertheless, poverty and economic inequality will remain key challenges, and the Ebola outbreak threatens to set back recent
gains
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook 39
Global Macro Outlook 39
Summer Of Risk39
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS39
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %40
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %41
TABLE: LIBERIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS43
TABLE: SIERRA LEONE - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS43

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Ahmad

+1 718 618 4302

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Nickel Profile, Bar and Rod Markets in the World to 2020 - Market Size, Development, and Forecasts

Nickel Profile, Bar and Rod Markets in the World to 2020 - Market Size, Development, and Forecasts

  • $ 20469
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Global Research & Data Services

The expansion of the global nickel profile, bar and rod industry is forecast to reach 2.6% p.a. in the coming years. Between 2009 and 2015 the market increased with an average annual growth of 2.7%. Currently, ...

Copper Markets in the World to 2020 - Market Size, Development, and Forecasts

Copper Markets in the World to 2020 - Market Size, Development, and Forecasts

  • $ 20469
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Global Research & Data Services

The expansion of the global copper industry is forecast to reach 4.2% p.a. in the coming years. Between 2009 and 2015 the market increased with an average annual growth of 5.0%. Currently, copper sheets ...

Copper Sheet and Plate Markets in the World to 2020 - Market Size, Development, and Forecasts

Copper Sheet and Plate Markets in the World to 2020 - Market Size, Development, and Forecasts

  • $ 20469
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Global Research & Data Services

The report package Copper Sheet and Plate Markets in the World to 2020 - Market Size, Development, and Forecasts offers the most up-to-date industry data on the actual market situation, and future outlook ...


ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.