1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Slovenia Country Risk Report Q1 2016

Slovenia Country Risk Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 33 pages

Core Views

The short-term economic outlook has improved in light of acceleratingregional economic activity and a slight rebound in domestic demand.The corporate sector remains overleveraged and will remain a majorrisk to the banking sector – unless ultimately some form of restructuringtakes place, whether on the loans itself to reduce debt servicingcosts, or through cost cutting (shedding jobs/trimming investment).Major Forecast ChangesThe slump in oil prices is proving to be more sustained than ourOil & Gas team’s initial forecasts, and the deflationary drag from oilprices will prevail for slightly longer as a result. Consequently, weare revising down our average inflation forecast to 0.3% in 2016,from a previous forecast of 0.5%.

Table Of Contents

Slovenia Country Risk Report Q1 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Domestic Politics 8
Migrant Crisis Remains The Priority8
The ongoing migrant crisis is presenting growing challenges to the Slovenian government, which is struggling with limited resources and
generally lacklustre cooperation between EU states
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW8
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
Tepid Economic Outlook A Test For Stability9
Although the EU will remain a policy anchor for Slovenia over the long term, massive economic pressures will be a major test for the
country's political institutions A structural shift in policy and/or governing institutions is unlikely, though we caution that failure to develop
a long-term growth model will raise challenges to governance, potentially exacerbating political party divisions
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 11
SWOT Analysis 11
BMI Economic Risk Index 11
Economic Growth Outlook 12
Remaining A Regional Growth Lagger12
Rising external demand from the eurozone will buoy the Slovenian economy over the coming quarters, but the recovery will continue to
lag other peers in emerging Europe
Trade and Investment 13
Record External Surplus To Decline Only Gradually13
Slovenia's vast current account will remain in surplus for the foreseeable future, helping to unwind the large stock of external liabilities
that the country accrued in the pre-financial crisis period A gradual recovery in domestic demand will reduce the current account
surplus after 2015, but only marginally
Outlook On External Position 14
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT14
Fiscal Policy 15
Fiscal Consolidation On Course15
The Slovenian budget deficit will continue to decline as the government holds course on fiscal consolidation However, spiralling costs
from the ongoing migrant crisis present a significant risk of higher budget deficits over the short-term
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY15
Structural Fiscal Position 16
TABLE: GOVERNMENT REVENUE/SPENDING SOURCES16
Monetary Policy 17
Weak Domestic Demand To Keep Inflation Subdued Beyond 201617
We are downgrading Slovenia's CPI forecast on account of lower than expected oil prices However, weak domestic demand means
inflation will remain low even after oil price base effects wear off in Q316
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast19
The Slovenian Economy To 202419
Convergence To Slow Markedly19
We expect Slovenia's real macroeconomic convergence with the Western European developed states to continue through our 10-year forecast period, although at a far reduced pace to the decade leading up to 2007 While continued capital market and trade integration with the eurozone, following the adoption of the euro in 2007 will remain a core factor underpinning productivity gains, we caution that reduced foreign capital flows resulting from the 2008-2009 financial crisis and domestic banking sector woes will stem trend growth over the long term That said, this should result in reduced external asymmetries and we forecast the current account deficit to fall steadily through to 2022
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS19
Chapter 4: Operational Risk21
SWOT Analysis21
Operational Risk Index21
Operational Risk 22
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK22
Education23
TABLE: EMERGING EUROPE - EDUCATION RISK24
Government Intervention26
TABLE: TOTAL GRADUATES OF TERTIARY EDUCATION BY SUBJECT ('000), 2006-201226
TABLE: EMERGING EUROPE - GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION RISK27
TABLE: PERSONAL INCOME TAX BRACKETS29
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook31
Global Outlook31
Emerging Markets Bending, Not Breaking31
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS31
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %32
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %32
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %33

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 12000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Rise in crude oil production worldwide drives the COFI market” The global market size of COFI is estimated to reach USD 1.73 billion by 2021 from 1.32 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of 5.5%. Excessive ...

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 7000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Transparency Market Research

The filter bags market report provides an in-depth analysis of the global filter bag market for the period 2014 – 2024, wherein 2015 is the base year and the years from 2016 to 2024 is the forecast period. ...


ref:plp2015

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.