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Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 37 pages

Core Views

While we expect Sudan's budget deficit to narrow in the coming years, it will remain structurally larger than seen over the past decade. Debt service will remain a sizeable burden and policymakers will continue struggling to replenish the oil revenues lost from South Sudan's 2011 secession. Former Vice President Riek Machar's calls for an armed struggle substantially increase the risk of a re-escalation of the South Sudanese conflict. The ongoing conflict will exacerbate the severe economic challenges and operational risks facing the country. Renewed conflict will continue to curtail South Sudan's economic activity in the coming quarters.

Stunted oil production, displacement of people and hyperinflation will drive a reduction in output in 2016. While we are forecasting a return to growth in 2017, downside risks remain pertinent. Major Forecast Changes We have downgraded our 2016 real GDP Growth forecast for South Sudan from a contraction of 2.7% to a contraction of 5.8% on the back of increased political instability and hyperinflation.

Table Of Contents

Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report Q1 2017
Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Major Forecast Changes 5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Sudan Economic Growth Outlook8
High Inflation And Hostile Business Environment Will Inhibit Growth 8
Sudan will see weak growth this year and next Declining oil production in South Sudan and weakened consumer spending power will
mitigate economic activity in the short term, whilst sanctions will restrain investment in the long term
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: SUDAN - GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 9
TABLE: SUDAN - PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 9
TABLE: SUDAN - GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 10
TABLE: SUDAN - FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 10
TABLE: SUDAN - NET EXPORTS FORECASTS 10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook11
Sluggish Oil Revenues Will Forestall Substantial Narrowing Of Deficit 11
While we expect Sudan's budget deficit to narrow in the coming years, it will remain structurally larger than over the past decade Debt
service will remain a sizeable burden and policymakers will continue struggling to replenish the oil revenues lost from South Sudan's
2011 secession
South Sudan Economic Growth Outlook 13
Economic Activity Will Be Inhibited By Conflict13
Renewed conflict will continue to curtail South Sudan's economic activity in the coming quarters Stunted oil production, displacement
of people and hyperinflation will drive a reduction in output in 2016 While we are forecasting a return to growth in 2017, downside risks
remain pertinent
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 14
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN - GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 14
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN - PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 15
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN - GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS15
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN - FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 15
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN - NET EXPORTS FORECASTS 15
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 17
The Sudanese Economy To 2025 17
Subdued Long-Term Growth Outlook 17
Sudan faces persistent sluggish growth in the years ahead Structural obstacles following the secession of South Sudan coupled with
the impact of Western-led economic sanctions will keep growth well below capacity
TABLE: SUDAN - LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 17
The South Sudanese Economy To 2025 18
A Potential Unrealised 18
The South Sudanese economy has significant potential due to its huge oil reserves, expanding population, large amount of arable land
and proposed integration with East African nations However, it faces serious challenges in order to fulfil this potential, including security
concerns with its neighbour to the north and among rival ethnic groups, a gaping infrastructure deficit and a lack of human or physical
capital
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN - LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 18
Contents
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 21
SWOT Analysis 21
BMI Political Risk Index21
Sudan Domestic Politics 22
National Dialogue Will Yield Little 22
Constitutional reforms promised at Sudan's National Dialogue Conference will have little beneficial effect on the ongoing fighting in the
South Kordofan, Blue Nile and Darfur regions This, coupled with an Amnesty report revealing evidence of Sudanese government forces
using chemical weapons in Darfur, will mean that Sudan is no closer to resolving its weak security environment
South Sudan Domestic Politics 23
Machar's Rebellion Risks Return To Civil War 23
Former Vice President Riek Machar's calls for an armed struggle substantially increase the risk of a re-escalation of the South
Sudanese conflict The ongoing conflict will exacerbate the severe economic challenges and operational risks facing the country
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 25
Operational Risk 25
TABLE: XXXXXXXXXXXXXX 25
Business Crime 26
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO RISK IN SUDAN27
Government Intervention 29
TABLE: BUSINESS TAXES 30
TABLE: PERSONAL INCOME TAX 31
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook33
Global Macro Outlook 33
Austerity Has Peaked, But Populism Is Not Yet Policy 33
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS33
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 34
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 35
SUDAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS37
SOUTH SUDAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS 37

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