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United Arab Emirates Country Risk Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 37 pages

Core Views

We expect relatively solid economic growth in the coming quarters, withreal GDP expansion at 4.0% and 3.4% in 2015 and 2016 respectively.We expect Dubai to outperform Abu Dhabi, with the former benefittingfrom increased activity in the trade and tourism sectors, in additionto our expectation that the all-important real estate industry is nowset for sustained growth.Credit growth to the private sector will remain relatively slow through2016 as commercial banks continue to increase provisioning againstpotential loan losses due to the debt funding cliff.Major Forecast ChangesOn the back of weaker oil prices, we have lowered our forecast forthe UAE's budget balance from 3.5% to -5.8% in 2015.

Table Of Contents

United Arab Emirates Country Risk Report Q1 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes 5
Key Risks 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Domestic Politics 8
Broadly Stable, But Risks Not Absent8
The UAE is one of the best insulated from regional stability, and we see few risks to the status quo over the coming years However, it
is important to note threats facing security in the country, namely the possibility of a terrorist attack or domestic opposition, even though
they remain minimal
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW8
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
Three Challenges In The Coming Decade9
The UAE is one of the more stable Gulf states over the long term, with a small, wealthy population; no history of terrorism; and no
sectarian tensions to speak of That said, it is not without its challenges
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Index 13
Economic Growth Outlook 14
Slowing Down, But No Cause For Concern14
The UAE's economic growth will slow over the coming quarters given lower oil prices, however, growth rates will still be impressive
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 15
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 15
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS15
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS16
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS16
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS16
Abu Dhabi Economic Growth Outlook 16
Slowing Growth As Oil Prices Bite16
Growth in Abu Dhabi's economy will slow modestly over the coming quarters, primarily on the back of lower oil prices The non-oil sector
will become the key growth driver, with construction the outperformer We forecast Abu Dhabi's real GDP growth to come in at 28% in
2016 and 26% in 2017, a modest slowdown from 2015 estimates of 32%
TABLE: ABU DHABI - GDP GROWTH FORECASTS17
Dubai Economic Growth Outlook 18
Exposed To Oil But Growth Still Strong18
Dubai's economy will slow over the coming quarters as the impact of lower oil prices takes effect However, growth will remain relatively
strong given the dominant non-oil sector - particularly the tourism, construction and retail segments - as well as the opening up of Iran's
economy We forecast real GDP growth of 42% in 2016 and 41% in 2017, following an estimated 44% in 2015
TABLE: DUBAI - GDP GROWTH FORECASTS18
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 20
End Of Expansionary Fiscal Policy20
The UAE's consolidated 2016 budget marks the end of the expansionary fiscal policy seen over the past decade We expect larger cuts
in spending to occur on an emirates level, particularly for Dubai and Abu Dhabi Overall, forecast a fiscal deficit of 46% of GDP in 2016,
from a surplus of 48% of GDP in 2014
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast23
The UAE Economy To 202423
Greater Caution, Slower Growth23
After its recent experience of boom and bust, we forecast a slower but more sustainable growth trajectory for the UAE over the next five to 10 years Consumer spending will remain the key driver of GDP However, investment and government spending are also significant, and this relative dependence on domestic demand puts it at some degree of risk
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk25
SWOT Analysis25
Operational Risk Index25
Operational Risk26
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK26
Education 27
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA - EDUCATION RISK28
TABLE: TERTIARY EDUCATION GRADUATES29
Government Intervention 30
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA - GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION RISK31
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook35
Global Outlook35
Emerging Markets Bending, Not Breaking35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %36
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %37

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