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AMA Research are pleased to announce the publication of the 12th edition of the report “Domestic Central Heating Market Report – UK 2014-2018 Analysis”. The report represents an informed and up-to-date and detailed review of the market and offers excellent value for money.

Key issues covered in the report:

• Boilers – Combination, Traditional, System etc.
• Radiators – Standard Panel, Decorative, Towel Warmers etc.
• Circulator Pumps – Stand-alone, Boiler-integrated.
• Heating Controls – Programmable Thermostats, Wireless, TRVs, Compensators etc.

The report reviews developments within the industry, with emphasis on both QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE market assessment - both essential requirements to good marketing planning. Recent trends, key influencing factors and forecasts of future developments are assessed.

The UK domestic heating market is significant, with an estimated total value of £1.1 billion at manufacturers selling prices in 2014. Since January 2013 this market has seen a notable upturn, in line with the UK economic recovery and the related upturn in housebuilding and consumer confidence. Government initiatives such as the ECO scheme and the Green Deal plus the further tightening of energy efficiency legislation has also supported growth in all product sectors of this market.

Areas of particular interest:

• Impact of increasing legislation regarding the efficiency and environmental impact of domestic heating systems – ErP 2015 (Boilers and Circulators), Part L, simplified energy efficiency regulations.
• Significant market opportunities in the replacement sector – around 50% of UK households with central heating have an inefficient non-condensing boiler.
• Impact of new build trends on the domestic central heating market – shift towards flats, increasing use of renewable technologies, product developments to meet legislative requirements.
• Impact of initiatives such as the ECO scheme and the Green Deal enabling installation of energy efficiency measures in homes at no upfront cost.
• Widespread roll out of smart metering and the increased consumer focus on energy efficient central heating products.
• Trend towards smart heating controls enabling flexible control of whole house heating over the internet.

Companies include:

Abacus Direct, ACV, Alpha Therm, Ariston Thermo Group, Armstrong Integrated, Baxi Heating UK, Biasi, Broag, Calpeda, DAB Pumps, Danfoss, Double Quick, Drayton, Elco UK, Ferroli, Glow- worm, Grant Engineering, Grundfos, Heatline, Honeywell, Ideal Stelrad, Jaga Heating Products, JIS (Europe), Johnson and Starley, Kermi, Kudox, Lowara UK, Myson, Pegler Yorkshire, Quinn Radiators, Radiating Style, Radox Radiators, Ravenheat, Rettig, Salus Controls, Schneider Electric, Secure Controls, Siemens Building Technologies, Sime, Smedegaard, Stelrad Radiators, Strebel, Sunvic Controls, TFC Group, The Radiator Company, Timeguard, Tuscan Foundry Products, Ultra Finishing, Vaillant Group, Viessmann, Vogue, Vokera, Wilo, Worcester Bosch Group, Zehnder.

Key areas covered in the report include:

CENTRAL HEATING
• Market development of central heating installations.
• Product mix – boilers, radiators, pumps, controls
• Source of fuel – mains gas, LPG, oil, solid fuel, and electric.
• Ownership levels, penetration by sector, share by type of application – replacement, new build, first time installation.
• Environmental concerns – the Green Deal, CSH, Part L, ECO, smart meters and ErP.
• Renewable energy technologies - ground source heat pumps, air source heat pumps, micro-CHP, and biomass. Domestic RHI scheme, Feed-in Tariffs.
• Trends for the future and key influencing factors, underfloor heating market, insulation trends.

BOILERS
• Boiler market size, trends and future prospects – legislative changes, condensing sales, new build trends, impact of renewable heating solutions etc. Forecasts through to 2018.
• Market share by mix of fuel – gas-fired, oil-fired, electric etc.
• Market mix by location – wall mounted, floor standing, back boiler etc.
• Product mix by type of boiler - combination, system, traditional etc.
• Major suppliers - market shares, strengths, key characteristics, turnover etc.

RADIATORS
• Radiator market size, trends and future prospects – the increasing importance of thermal performance, growth of decorative styles, new build trends, impact of UFH etc. Forecasts through to 2018.
• Product mix by type of radiator – standard, decorative, towel warmer.
• Key product trends – design, materials, finish, colour, functionality and innovation.
• Radiator suppliers - market shares, turnover, strengths and opportunities.

CIRCULATOR PUMPS
• Circulator pump market development and forecasts – legislative changes, influence of boiler trends etc. Forecasts through to 2018.
• Product mix by type of circulator – stand-alone, boiler-integrated.
• Key product trends – high efficiency circulators, ErP requirements etc.
• Supplier market shares, key companies, strengths and characteristics etc.

HEATING CONTROLS
• Heating controls market size, trends and forecasts – market opportunities, impact of legislation etc. Forecasts through to 2018.
• Ownership levels – types of heating controls used.
• Product mix – programmers, thermostats, TRVs, motorized valves, compensators etc.
• Key product trends – smart heating controls, zoning, wireless technology, development of compensators etc.
• Major suppliers, market shares, strengths and key characteristics.

DISTRIBUTION
• Distribution of domestic central heating products
• Market mix by channel – builders and plumbers’ merchants, DIY multiples, electrical wholesalers, online retailers, other retail, OEMs etc.
• Key companies, shares, strengths and characteristics etc.
The UK domestic central heating market is substantial, with an estimated total value of around £1.1 billion at manufacturers’ prices in 2014. Over recent years this market has benefited from more stringent energy efficiency legislation and the drive to sustainability. With around 92% of UK homes with central heating installed, the market is now mature but still offers further growth potential through product innovation to improve thermal performance, energy efficiency and control.

Between 2009 and 2012, the UK domestic central heating market was comparatively volatile - in line with the uncertain economic situation at this time. However, since January 2013 the market for domestic central heating products has seen a notable increase, with demand picking up as the economy improves. This growth can be partly attributed to the introduction of Government initiatives such as the ECO scheme and the Green Deal in 2013 plus the further tightening of energy efficiency legislation in all product sectors of this market.

Estimated at £637 million at MSP in 2013, the boiler sector dominates the industry's sales. This is followed by radiators, heating controls and circulator pumps. The majority of these products are distributed via the trade channels such as builders/plumbers merchants and electrical wholesalers. However, replacement and retrofit products are often distributed via the DIY multiples and Online retailers. Other distributors include specialist heating retailers, hardware stores and catalogues. A number of products are also sold into OEMs.

In 2013 the market for domestic central heating products can be broken down into three key areas; refurbishment, which accounts for over 80% of sales, new build and first time installations. A major area of support for the market is expected to come from the domestic refurbishment sector. With new legislative measures, householders are now more aware of energy efficiency and the environmental impact of domestic central heating products.

The future performance of the UK domestic heating market is likely to be influenced by overall trends in house building, home improvement, fuel prices, energy efficiency legislation, renewable technologies, and technological developments also niche market drivers such as the self-build and conservatory markets.

Increasing legislation represents a major influence in the long term development of this market. For example, legislation developed by the European Commission; the Eco-Design of Energy related Products (ErP) Directive. Since July 2013 all radiators sold in the UK also have to conform and have outputs verified to British Standard BS-EN442, something which supports the UK radiator industry as a whole, as it will eliminate (low cost) imports that do not meet this new mandatory standard.

Higher levels of efficiency are also likely to be driven by the 2014 revisions to Part L of the Building Regulations. These changes mean that new build homes will have to be 6% more efficient than under current regulations. Housing developers are more likely to demand energy-saving fittings such as high efficiency boilers with new ‘ErP ready’ circulator pumps.

As part of the transition to a low carbon economy, 53 million gas and electricity meters will be replaced with smart meters by 2020. The widespread roll-out of these meters is expected to start in 2015. Householders will become more aware of their energy usage and seek energy efficiency measures in order to save money. In addition, with the evolving trend towards ‘the internet of things’ the development of smart heating controls will start to transform the heating controls sector. These systems are particularly useful to people who want flexible control of their heating systems or those who own second homes that are left empty for long periods of time.

Future growth in the use of renewables will be driven by the Governments’ renewable energy strategy with initiatives such as the domestic Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) and Feed-in Tariffs (FIT). This will lead to further development of heating systems that are compatible with these technologies. It is anticipated that the trend towards low carbon homes will result in the adoption of a wider range of technologies in order to deliver a comfortable home heating environment. These are likely to use a combination of both fossil fuel and renewable heat sources.

The outlook for the UK domestic central heating market in Q4-2014 remains positive, with the continuing recovery in the UK economy and the related upturn in housebuilding and consumer confidence. However, with the election in mid-2015, uncertainties do exist regarding Government policy after this time. By 2018 it is estimated that the UK domestic central heating market will be worth some £1.3 billion, representing an increase of around 18% when compared to the estimated market size in 2014.

Table Of Contents

Domestic Central Heating Market Report - UK 2014-2018 Analysis
1. INTRODUCTION 6
1.1 BACKGROUND 6
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 6
2. SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS 8
2.1 SUMMARY 8
2.2 KEY TRENDS 9
2.3 FUTURE PROSPECTS 10
3. HOUSING AND ECONOMIC INFLUENCES 12
3.1 GDP 12
3.2 INFLATION and INTEREST RATES 13
3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT 14
3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 15
3.5 DOMESTIC HOUSING 15
3.5.1 House Building Completions 15
3.5.2 Mix of Housebuilding Completions 16
3.5.3 House Moving Levels 17
3.5.4 House Prices 18
3.5.5 Self-Build Market 18
3.5.6 Conservatory Market 19
3.6 STERLING 20
3.7 POPULATION PROFILE 20
4. UK MARKET FOR DOMESTIC CENTRAL HEATING 22
4.1 DEFINITION 22
4.2 MARKET OVERVIEW 22
4.2.1 Market Size by Value 2009 - 2018 22
4.2.2 Product Mix (Boilers, Radiators, Heating Controls, Circulators) 23
4.2.3 Household Penetration (Overall Market, Tenure, Type of Boiler) 24
4.2.4 Type of Installation (Replacement, New Housing, First Time) 27
4.2.5 Source of Fuel 28
4.3 KEY MARKET INFLUENCES 30
4.3.1 Underfloor Heating Market 30
4.3.2 Insulation Measures (Cavity Wall, Loft, Double Glazing) 32
4.3.3 Environmental Legislation (CSH, Part L, ECO, Green Deal, Smart Meters, ErP) 33
4.3.4 Renewable Energy Technologies (domestic RHI, Feed-in Tariff) 36
5. BOILERS 38
5.1 MARKET OVERVIEW 38
5.1.1 Definition 38
5.1.2 Market Size by Value 2009 - 2018 38
5.1.3 Market Background 39
5.1.4 Future Prospects 39
5.2 MARKET TRENDS 40
5.2.1 Fuel Used (Boiler Mix by Type, Passive Flue Gas Recovery Units) 40
5.2.2 Location (Wall Mounted, Floor Standing, Back Boilers) 41
5.2.3 Condensing Boilers 42
5.2.4 Imports and Exports 43
5.3 PRODUCT TRENDS 43
5.3.1 Product Mix 43
5.3.2 Combination Boilers (Combi) 44
5.3.3 Traditional Boilers (Heat-only, Regular, Open vent) 44
5.3.4 System Boilers 45
5.3.5 Other Boilers (Back Boilers, Electric Boilers) 45
5.4 SUPPLIERS 46
5.4.1 Market Shares 46
5.4.2 Key Company Profiles 46
5.4.3 Other Suppliers 48
6. RADIATORS 51
6.1 MARKET OVERVIEW 51
6.1.1 Definition 51
6.1.2 Market Size by Value 2009 - 2018 51
6.1.3 Market Background 52
6.1.4 Future Prospects 52
6.2 PRODUCT TRENDS 53
6.2.1 Product Mix 53
6.2.2 Standard Radiators (Panel, Compact, LST, Column, Fan Convector) 54
6.2.3 Decorative Radiators 56
6.2.4 Towel Warmers 57
6.3 SUPPLIERS 58
6.3.1 Market Shares 58
6.3.2 Key Company Profiles 59
6.3.3 Other Suppliers 60
7. CIRCULATOR PUMPS 63
7.1 MARKET OVERVIEW 63
7.1.1 Definition 63
7.1.2 Market Size by Value 2009 - 2018 63
7.1.3 Market Background 63
7.1.4 Future Prospects 64
7.2 PRODUCT TRENDS 65
7.2.1 Product Mix 65
7.2.2 Stand-alone Circulators (Independent Circulators) 65
7.2.3 Boiler-integrated Circulators 67
7.3 SUPPLIERS 68
7.3.1 Market Shares 68
7.3.2 Key Company Profiles 68
8. HEATING CONTROLS 70
8.1 MARKET OVERVIEW 70
8.1.1 Definition 70
8.1.2 Market Size by Value 2009 - 2018 70
8.1.3 Market Background 71
8.1.4 Future Prospects 71
8.1.5 Home Ownership 72
8.1.6 Legislative Requirements (Part L, Lifetime Homes) 72
8.1.7 Smart Home Technology 73
8.2 PRODUCT TRENDS 74
8.2.1 Product Mix - Thermostats, Programmers, TRVs, Valves etc 74
8.2.2 Thermostats (Conventional, Wired, Wireless, Programmable, Cylinder) 75
8.2.3 Smart Heating Controls 77
8.2.4 Programmers 78
8.2.5 Thermostatic Radiator Valves (TRVs) 79
8.2.6 Motorised Valves 79
8.2.7 Boiler Load Compensators (including Weather Compensators) 80
8.3 SUPPLIERS 80
8.3.1 Market Shares 80
8.3.2 Key Company Profiles 81
9. DISTRIBUTION 83
9.1 CHANNEL SHARES - MERCHANTS, DIY MULTIPLES, INTERNET, WHOLESALERS 83
9.2 KEY COMPANIES 84
9.2.1 Merchants 84
9.2.2 DIY Multiples 86
9.2.3 Electrical Wholesalers 86
9.2.4 Online retailers 87
9.2.5 Other 87
CHART 1 UK DOMESTIC CENTRAL HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2009-2018 8
TABLE 2 GDP DATA - 2011-2014 - KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS 12
CHART 3 INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 1994-2018 14
CHART 4 PDI and SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 1995-2018 15
TABLE 5 UK HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 2009-2016 (‘000 DWELLINGS) 16
CHART 6 HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS IN ENGLAND - % MIX BY TYPE OF DWELLING 2003-2013 17
TABLE 7 UK RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS VALUED AT £40K OR ABOVE 2009-2016 18
TABLE 8 UK DOMESTIC CONSERVATORIES MARKET 2010-2015 (000S) 19
TABLE 9 EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2008-2014 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 20
TABLE 10 UK DOMESTIC CENTRAL HEATING MARKET - BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2009-2018 23
CHART 11 MARKET MIX BY PRODUCT TYPE (BOILERS, RADIATORS, HEATING CONTROLS, CIRCULATORS) - BY VALUE 2013 24
CHART 12 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CENTRAL HEATING IN ENGLAND - 1996, 2006 AND 2013 25
CHART 13 VOLUME OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CENTRAL HEATING IN ENGLAND BY TENURE (OWNER OCCUPIED, PRIVATE RENTED, SOCIAL HOUSING) 2012 25
CHART 14 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CENTRAL HEATING IN ENGLAND BY BOILER TYPE (COMBINATION, STANDARD, BACK) 2012 26
CHART 15 MARKET MIX BY TYPE OF INSTALLATION (REPLACEMENT, NEW HOUSING, FIRST TIME EXISTING HOUSING) - BY VOLUME 2013 27
CHART 16 MARKET MIX BY SOURCE OF FUEL USED (GAS, OIL, OTHER ETC.) - BY VOLUME 2013 28
TABLE 17 UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2009-2013 30
CHART 18 PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH INSULATION MEASURES IN ENGLAND - 1996, 2006 AND 2012 32
TABLE 19 UK DOMESTIC BOILER MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2009-2018 38
CHART 20 BOILER SALES MIX BY TYPE OF FUEL (GAS-FIRED, OIL-FIRED, ELECTRIC, ETC.) - BY VOLUME 2013 41
CHART 21 BOILER SALES MIX BY LOCATION (WALL MOUNTED, FLOOR STANDING) BY VOLUME 2013 42
CHART 22 BOILER MIX BY TYPE (COMBINATION, TRADITIONAL, SYSTEM, ETC.) - BY VOLUME 2013 44
TABLE 23 DOMESTIC BOILER SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARES - BY VALUE 2013 46
TABLE 24 UK DOMESTIC RADIATOR MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2009-2018 51
CHART 25 RADIATOR MIX BY TYPE (STANDARD, DECORATIVE, TOWEL WARMERS) - BY VALUE 2013 54
TABLE 26 DOMESTIC RADIATOR SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARES - BY VALUE 2013 58
TABLE 27 UK DOMESTIC CIRCULATOR MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2009-2018 63
CHART 28 CIRCULATOR PRODUCT MIX (BOILER-INTEGRATED, STAND-ALONE) - BY VOLUME 2013 65
CHART 29 ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION (FIXED SPEED CIRCULATORS, VARIABLE SPEED CIRCULATORS) - BY KWH 66
TABLE 30 CIRCULATOR SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARE - BY VALUE 2013 68
TABLE 31 UK DOMESTIC HEATING CONTROLS MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2009-2018 70
CHART 32 HEATING CONTROLS PRODUCT MIX - THERMOSTATS, PROGRAMMERS, TRVS, MOTORISED VALVES, COMPENSATORS - BY VALUE 2013 75
TABLE 33 DOMESTIC HEATING CONTROLS - LEADING SUPPLIERS 2013 81
CHART 34 MARKET DISTRIBUTION BY CHANNEL (MERCHANTS, DIY MULTIPLES, INTERNET, ELECTRICAL WHOLESALERS, ETC.) - BY VOLUME 2013 83

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