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  4. > Domestic Replacement Door and Window Market Report – UK 2015-2019 Analysis

AMA Research have published the 12th edition of the report 'Domestic Replacement Door and Window Market Report – UK 2015-2019 Analysis'. The report represents an informed and up-to-date detailed review of the replacement door and window market sectors, with particular emphasis on the double glazing sector, and provides forecasts to 2019. First published in 1990, the new edition incorporates both original input and primary research.

Key areas covered:

• Product review- windows, residential doors, patio doors.


• Frame material review - PVCu, aluminium, timber, composites etc.


• Sector review - public and private sectors.


• Supply and distribution - leading players, distribution channels.


• Supply and distribution review - leading manufacturers, key distribution channels by sector.


• Key trends and market influences - standards and legislation, product trends, material and distribution trends, housing and economic factors.


Market saturation is a key issue for the replacement sector and there are many significant implications for the industry in the medium term in terms of material usage, end use markets, changing supply and distribution structures etc, which are reviewed in the report. After a difficult period, 2014 undoubtedly saw a significant improvement in market performance in most sectors, with prospects for 2015 also looking favourable as companies throughout the supply chain look to build on an improving market.


Areas of insight include:

• Market activity levels in 2013-2014.


• Material usage trends in all product sectors - including growth of bifold doors.


• Review of changes in the supply and distribution structure - industry rationalisation.


• Market trends in the private and public sectors.


• Forecasts for 2015 and up to 2019 - review of key market drivers, impact of the Green Deal etc.


Some of the companies included:

Aluk Group, Anglian Windows, Benlowe Group, Birtley Group, Britdoors Group, C R Smith, Clearwood Joinery, Deceuninck, Distinction Doors, Door Stop International, Duraflex, Epwin Holdings, Eurocell Profiles, Everest, GBW Panels, Griffin Windows, Hallmark Panels, HL Plastics, Homesafe-Lindman, Howarth Timber, Howdens Joinery, Hurst Plastics, IG Doors, Jeld-Wen UK, Kawneer UK, LB Plastics, Magnet, Masterdor, Mumford and Wood, My House Group, New World Developments, Permadoor, Premdor Crosby, Premier Manufacturing Ltd, Profine UK, Rehau, Rockdoor, Safestyle, SAPA Building Systems, Securidor, Selecta Systems, Senior Architectural Systems, Smart Systems, Synseal, Veka, Vista Panels, Weatherseal, Zenith Home.

Key areas covered in the report include:

THE MARKET

• Market size by Volume and Value – recent developments to 2014 and forecasts of future trends within each product group up to 2019.


• Review of market in 2012-14 – market performance and potential in short/medium term.


• Share and analysis of market by product – windows, doors and patio doors.


• Share and analysis of market by frame material – PVC-u, timber, aluminium, composites and steel.


• Share and analysis of market by sector – direct sell, indirect private and public sector.


• Developments in the private and public sectors - role of Housing Associations, List of Top Housing Associations by dwelling stock (England, Scotland, Wales), development programmes.


• Household penetration levels – 1981-2014 and future growth. Prospects for further penetration – growth of ‘second’ replacement market.


• Forecasts from 2015 - 2019 – short /medium term issues in 2015-16 – market saturation, pricing, industry restructuring, sustainability issues, impact of Green Deal etc.


PRODUCTS

• Market size by Volume and Value for each product sector – recent developments to 2014 and forecasts of future trends from 2015-19.


• Analysis of market trends for each product, including use of aluminum, PVC-u, composite and timber by product.


• Product trends, forecasts of future developments up to 2019 – opportunities/threats, growth of composites etc.


• Distribution by sector – Social Housing, Private direct sell and Builders sector – for each product.


• Importance of frame materials within market sectors – Local Authorities, Direct Sell, Housing Associations, Conservatory market etc.


• Sustainability issues – impact on market, legislation, impact of Green Deal.


SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION

• Analysis of distribution structure for PVC-u, Aluminium, Timber.


• Role of Extruders, Systems Companies, Fabricators, Merchants, Builders, Local Authorities, DIY Outlets etc – reasons for their market positions, market changes, acquisitions etc.


• Review of changes in market structure over the last 2-3 years – recent mergers, acquisitions.


• Analysis of leading suppliers within each material group – including market share analysis, strengths and weaknesses, industry rationalisation in the future.


• Review of composite door supply structure – key players.


• Retail distribution – review of suppliers in the direct sell and builders sectors of the market, market shares, strengths and weaknesses, leading companies.


KEY INFLUENCES AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

• Review of standards and legislation – potential impact of Green Deal.


• Review of current and future performance of the housing market.


• Developments within major product groups – market saturation levels, new areas of growth, niche sectors. Material and distribution trends.


• Economic influences and growth prospects up to 2019.

The UK market for replacement domestic doors and windows is large, but mature. Volumes have been in steady underlying decline, but in 2014 the market returned to growth. By value, the market is estimated to have grown by as much as 9% at retail selling prices in 2014. This growth partly reflects the release of pent-up demand due to rising consumer confidence and an improving housing market.

The dominant position of PVC-u, especially in the windows and patio door sector over the past few decades, is undeniable with the PVC-u dominated direct sell route to market particularly strong in these product sectors. Aluminium and timber are also important frame materials for doors and windows – though aluminium is largely restricted to specific applications or products. Composite doors have gained significant market share and have grown rapidly in popularity in recent years.

Sustainability remains a core theme in this as in other construction markets. New product developments in this market include a wider range of colours for doors and window frames than previously. Some major restructuring has been seen in this sector in the last 2 years, with further rationalisation anticipated at all levels of the supply chain. In particular, the composite door sector has seen significant change in terms of acquisitions and companies exiting the market 2013/14.

Our forecast for the development of the door and window replacement market for 2015 is for further good growth overall in the region of 5%, given continued growth in the general economy, strong consumer confidence and a good housing market. For the longer term, our forecasts are for steady recovery of around 2-3% growth, reflecting market maturity and a steadily rising economy. We anticipate that certainly in the short term, the market will be primarily driven by demand from the private rather than public sector, because of the impact of cuts in government spending for the forecast period.

A return to the volumes seen in the 1990s is not likely. Increases in the market will be limited by a number of factors including the maturity of the market and the extended lifespan of door and window products. New legislation may encourage replacement of windows and doors to some extent, as regulations for thermal efficiency etc become stricter over time, while security and appearance will also drive second/third-time replacement.

New niche sectors continue to offer opportunities – bifold doors have been a recent example as homeowners look to open up access to their garden areas with large, flexible glazed areas. In the longer term, the UK replacement door and window market is likely to see further consolidation at all levels.

Table Of Contents

Domestic Replacement Door and Window Market Report - UK 2015-2019 Analysis
1. INTRODUCTION 7
1.1 BACKGROUND 7
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 7
2. SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS 9
2.1 SUMMARY 9
2.2 FUTURE PROSPECTS 10
3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 12
3.1 GDP 12
3.2 INFLATION and INTEREST RATES 13
3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT 14
3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 15
3.5 HOUSING and CONSTRUCTION 15
3.6 STERLING 16
3.7 POPULATION PROFILE 17
3.8 CONCLUSIONS 17
4. THE MARKET 19
4.1 MARKET DEFINITION 19
4.2 MARKET SIZE 19
4.2.1 Market Background 19
4.2.2 Current Situation 22
4.2.3 Future Prospects 25
4.3 PRODUCT MIX 27
4.4 MARKET SECTORS 28
4.5 HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION LEVELS 29
4.6 KEY INFLUENCES 31
4.6.1 Standards and Legislation 31
4.6.2 Environmental 32
4.6.3 Residential Construction Market 32
4.6.4 Housebuilding Market 34
4.6.5 UK Social Housing Market 35
4.6.6 House moving market 44
4.7 THE CONSERVATORY MARKET 44
5. MATERIALS 46
5.1 OVERVIEW 46
5.2 MATERIALS - CURRENT TRENDS IN BRIEF 49
5.3 DEVELOPMENT OF KEY MATERIALS 50
5.3.1 PVCu 50
5.3.2 Aluminium 52
5.3.3 Timber 53
5.3.4 Composite Doors 54
5.3.5 Other materials 54
6. PRODUCTS 55
6.1 WINDOWS 55
6.1.1 Market Size and Volume 55
6.1.2 Distribution by Sector 57
6.2 PATIO DOORS 58
6.2.1 Market Size and Volume 58
6.3 RESIDENTIAL DOORS 59
6.3.1 Market Size and Volume 59
7. SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION 62
7.1 OVERVIEW OF DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE 62
7.2 DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE BY FRAME MATERIAL 62
7.2.1 PVC-u 62
7.2.2 Aluminium 69
7.2.3 Timber 72
7.2.4 Composite Doors 76
7.3 RETAIL DISTRIBUTION 78
7.3.1 Retail Glazing Companies 78
7.3.2 Builders Merchants 82
7.4 MARKET SHARE 83
7.4.1 DIY Outlets 84
7.4.2 Specialist Suppliers to DIY/Builders Merchants 86
TABLE 1 UK DOMESTIC REPLACEMENT DOOR and WINDOW MARKET SIZE AND FORECASTS - 2008-2019 (£M RSP) 9
TABLE 2 GDP DATA - 2012-2014 - KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS 12
CHART 3 INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 2000-2019 14
CHART 4 PDI and SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 2000-2019 15
TABLE 5 EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2009-2015 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 17
TABLE 6 UK DOMESTIC REPLACEMENT DOOR and WINDOW MARKET (£M RSP) 2008-2019 22
CHART 7 UK DOMESTIC REPLACEMENT DOOR and WINDOW MARKET (£M RSP) 2010-2019 25
CHART 8 MARKET VALUE BY PRODUCT - WINDOWS, PATIO DOORS and RESIDENTIAL DOORS - % MIX 2014 28
CHART 9 UK DOMESTIC REPLACEMENT WINDOWS AND DOORS SHARE BY MARKET SECTOR 2014 29
CHART 10 HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION LEVEL OF ANY TYPE OF DOUBLE-GLAZING 1985 - 2014 30
CHART 11 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT NEW WORK AND RMI 2011 TO 2013 - BY VALUE (£ BILLION AT CURRENT PRICES) 33
CHART 12 HOUSING STARTS BY REGION (ENGLAND, WALES AND SCOTLAND) 2008 - 2014 - BY VOLUME OF DWELLINGS 34
CHART 13 HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS IN ENGLAND - % MIX BY TYPE OF DWELLING (HOUSES/FLATS) 2001-2014 35
TABLE 14 UK HOUSING ASSOCIATION STOCK 2008-2018 (‘000S) 36
TABLE 15 EXPENDITURE ON HOUSING ASSOCIATION PROPERTIES - MAJOR REPAIRS, PLANNED MAINTENANCE, SERVICE COSTS - 2008-12 (£M) 37
CHART 16 ESTIMATED TOTAL EXPENDITURE ON HOUSING ASSOCIATION RMI - 2010 -2016 38
TABLE 17 TOP 30 HA GROUPS IN ENGLAND BY TOTAL STOCK OWNED (2013) UNITS MANAGED / MARKET SHARE 40
TABLE 18 TOP 30 HA GROUPS IN SCOTLAND BY TOTAL STOCK OWNED (2013) UNITS MANAGED / MARKET SHARE 42
TABLE 19 MAJOR HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS IN WALES 2013 - UNITS MANAGED/ MARKET SHARES 43
CHART 20 MOVING ANNUAL TOTAL SECURED GROSS LENDING TO INDIVIDUALS AND HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS 2008 TO 2014 - MAT (£MILLION) 44
CHART 21 MIX OF WINDOWS BY FRAME MATERIAL (TIMBER, ALUMINIUM, PVCU) - DEVELOPMENT OVER TIME - BY VALUE 47
CHART 22 MIX OF PATIO DOORS BY FRAME MATERIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER TIME - BY VALUE 48
CHART 23 MIX OF RESIDENTIAL DOORS BY FRAME MATERIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER TIME - BY VALUE 49
CHART 24 MARKET VALUE BY PRODUCT - WINDOWS, PATIO DOORS and RESIDENTIAL DOORS - % MIX 2014 55
TABLE 25 UK HOME IMPROVEMENT MARKET FOR WINDOWS 2009-2019 BY VOLUME 56
CHART 26 VALUE OF WINDOWS BY SECTOR (DIRECT SELL, LA/HA, INDIRECT PRIVATE) - 2014 57
TABLE 27 UK HOME IMPROVEMENT MARKET FOR PATIO DOORS 2009 -2019 BY VOLUME 58
TABLE 28 UK HOME IMPROVEMENT MARKET FOR RESIDENTIAL DOORS 2009-2019 BY VOLUME 60
CHART 29 DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE - PVC-U DOORS AND WINDOWS 63
TABLE 30 PVC-U SYSTEMS MARKET SUPPLIER SHARES - 2013/14 66
CHART 31 DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE - ALUMINIUM WINDOWS AND DOORS 70
CHART 32 DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE - TIMBER WINDOWS AND DOORS 73
CHART 33 DISTRIBUTION OF TIMBER DOORS and WINDOWS - BY VOLUME 2014 76
CHART 34 UK REPLACEMENT DOOR and WINDOW MARKET RETAIL CHANNEL MIX - NATIONAL/REGIONAL/LOCAL SHARES - 2013 79
TABLE 35 RETAIL MARKET SHARE - BY VALUE 2013 80
CHART 36 MERCHANTS MARKET SHARES 2013 83
CHART 37 MIX OF MERCHANTS BY TYPE 2013 84
CHART 38 DIY MULTIPLES MARKET SHARE 2013 85

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