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Floorcoverings Market Report– UK 2014-2018 Analysis

  • December 2014
  • -
  • AMA Research
  • -
  • 102 pages

AMA Research are pleased to announce the publication of the 12th edition of the report ‘Floorcoverings Market Report– UK 2014-2018 Analysis’. First published in 1991, the report focuses on providing a comprehensive and up to date review of the floorcoverings market in the UK in 2013-2014, as well as analysing influencing factors and trends likely to drive future market performance. The report contains:

•DETAILED ASSESSMENT OF THE MARKET - analysis of major developments and current and future trends.


•REVIEW OF KEY PRODUCT AND SECTOR TRENDS – carpets, wood/laminates, vinyl, ceramic tiles & natural stone, others.


•REVIEW OF SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE – changes to supply structure and changes to key distribution channels etc.


• FORECASTS OF MARKET DEVELOPMENTS UP TO 2018.

In 2013/14, the UK Floorcoverings sector has benefited from a recovery in the housing market and other construction sectors. Carpet remains the largest sector within the floorcoverings product mix, but vinyl, ceramic tiles and wood/laminates all account for significant shares, reflecting varying strengths in different applications in some key end-use sectors. The current outlook for the market into the medium-term is for steady recovery, underpinned by a combination of further recovery in the housing market and improving consumer and business confidence and investment levels.



Areas of particular interest include:

• Underlying performance of the market in 2013–14.


• Despite longer-term trend of loss of share for carpet in favour of smooth floorcoverings, the product mix has remained relatively stable in 2013-14.


• Vinyl continued to increase sales in key commercial sectors with domestic growth underpinned by stone and wood effect products.


• Review of leading manufacturers and suppliers.


• Market prospects in 2015 and medium term prospects to 2018.


Companies include:

Abingdon Flooring, AIREA, Altro, Amtico International, Armstrong UK, Atkinson & Kirby, Axminster Carpets, Balta Group, Balterio, Beach Bros, Beaulieu International Group (BIG), BHK (UK), Brintons, British Ceramic Tile, Burmatex, Carpetright, Carpets & Flooring, Cavalier Carpets, Desso, Ege Carpets, Egger UK, Finsa UK, Floors-2-Go, Fludes, Forbo Flooring UK, Gerflor, Greenwood & Coope Ltd, Havwoods, Headlam Group, Interface Europe, International Decorative Surfaces (IDS), Johnson Tiles, Junckers, Kährs, Karndean International, Kent Flooring Supplies, Kenton Floors, Kronospan, Metsä Wood UK, Milliken Carpet Europe, Panaget, Pennine Flooring Supplies, Pergo, Pilkingtons, Plasman, Polyflor, Porcelanosa, Rovers Flooring, STS Flooring, Tarkett Group, Tedd Todd, Tileflair, Timbmet, Topps Tiles, Tradewoods, Ulster Carpet Mills, Unilin, United Carpets, United Carpets Group, Victoria Carpets, Victorian Woodworks, Westco, Whitestone Weavers.

Key areas covered in the report include:

THE MARKET

• Total Floorcoverings Market – analysis of size by value 2008 -2018, historical trends and market characteristics.


• Analysis by major product sectors – carpets, wood & laminate, vinyl, ceramic & natural stone tiles, linoleum etc. – current shares and mix changes over the last decade, driving factors, future prospects.


• Review of key market influences – housebuilding, construction market sizes by sector 2008-18, growth of underfloor heating etc. Overview of domestic and contract sectors.


• Future Prospects – forecasts of overall market performance in 2015-18.


PRODUCT MIX

• Carpets – market size by value 2008-14, product mix (tufted, woven, fibre-bonded and non-woven), factors influencing market performance, international trade in carpets. Rugs market size. Key suppliers/market shares in the UK carpet market, future prospects to 2018.


• Wood & Laminates – market size by value 2008-14, mix share between solid, engineered and laminates, changes to product mix in recent years, factors affecting recent market performance, domestic and contract end-use mix, key suppliers/market shares, distribution channels, market outlook to 2018.


• Vinyl – market size by value 2008-14, share mix between vinyl tiles and sheeting, key trends influencing recent market behaviour, domestic/contract sector mix, recycling initiatives, profiles of key suppliers in the UK vinyl floorcovering market, future prospects to 2018.


• Ceramic & Natural Stone Tiles – market size by value 2008-14, growth of sector, factors continuing to influence demand for ceramic and stone floorcoverings in both domestic and contract end-use sectors, key suppliers, outlook for market to 2018.


• Others – linoleum, cork, rubber, etc. - market size 2008-14, recent sector performance, key influencing factors, prospects to 2018.


DISTRIBUTION/SUPPLIERS

• Domestic Distribution - definitions, market shares by major channel – Multiples, Independents, Specialists, DIY, Builders Merchants, Department Stores, Mail Order, Internet, etc – areas of growth and decline, major companies within each channel.


• Contract Distribution – mix by major channel – healthcare, education, commercial, retail, industrial, leisure, areas of growth and decline – future prospects.


FUTURE PROSPECTS

• Key growth areas – prospects for 2015 and up to 2018 - prospects by product sector.


• Review of key factors impacting the market.

Floorcoverings is a mature market, underpinned by strong consumer and business confidence, a healthy housing market and buoyant economy. Significant decline in 2007-11 has been followed by relatively moderate but steady improvement in 2012-14, the result of improving economic conditions, a recovering housing market and rise in business confidence and levels of investment. The UK floorcoverings market was worth an estimated £1.8bn in 2014, representing value growth of 2% from 2013.

The moderate increase experienced in 2012 was largely the result of investment and refurbishment work associated with the London Olympics and Golden Jubilee, with the upturn in the housing market and underlying economy helping to buoy demand from around mid-2013. Strengthening demand from the contract sector has helped to offset a domestic sector still struggling with relatively cautious consumers whose spending power remains relatively constrained.

Short to medium term prospects are for steady moderate growth, with the domestic market expected to show further improvement as consumer confidence in the economy continues to grow, spending power improves and ongoing growth in the housing market translates into a higher level of home refurbishment activity.

The market, which is heavily reliant on replacement and refurbishment, was also buoyed by insurance repairs and replacement of floorcoverings after the recent floods in Winter 2013-14 in some areas of the UK. The market remains tied to levels of consumer confidence and spending which have remained constrained over the last 4-5 years - although recent indicators are for some modest improvement. Demand in 2014 has been driven more strongly by the contract sector, in the private industrial and commercial markets, with business sentiment remaining relatively high despite the Eurozone problems and the prospect of both higher interest rates and a general election in 2015.

Carpet still dominates the floorcovering product mix, accounting for around 57% in value terms in 2014, a share that has changed only marginally since the pre-financial crisis days. Wood accounts for a 16% share, followed by Vinyl and the ‘other floorcoverings’ sector accounting with slightly smaller shares. The growth of around 2% for carpet in 2014 was due to improved sales in the contract/commercial sector and a marginal rise in the domestic market. The wood floorcoverings market experienced growth of just 1% in 2013 but with this strengthening marginally to around 2% in 2014.

Demand for laminates has remained relatively flat, although demand has (and is) being boosted by the popularity of some of the latest ranges. There are also indications that the market has continued to move away from high volume/low value entry level products with greater concentration on mid-upper value sectors. Solid and engineered woods remain popular, however there are signs that while demand for affordable, low to mid-market floors is holding steady and even rising, sales of premium ranges within the upper market sector may be declining.

Vinyl products have remained relatively buoyant (compared with other floorcovering sectors) in recent years with growth of 3% in 2014 – however, the value remains below the 2008 peak. Luxury vinyl tiles have continued to take share of both the domestic and contract market and continued product developments have included coatings, improved slip resistance and formats such as loose lay.

In general, the outlook for the floorcoverings sector is more optimistic, with a number of positive indicators for growth in the short term. These include steady improvements in housing output and a stronger housing market, growth in construction activity and output, and higher levels of business confidence and investment.

Consumer confidence, which underpins growth particularly in the carpet sector, remains somewhat disappointing, though is expected strengthen in 2015 – reflecting the impact of lower fuel prices and inflation and ongoing stabilisation of employment prospects and the underlying economy. Prospects for the new housebuilding sector in 2014-16 are good with significant improvement to starts and completions currently forecast, although this is forecast to slow down from 2016 onwards as factors such as higher interest rates begin to affect mortgage availability. Annual growth for the total floorcoverings market is currently forecast at around 2– 3% to 2018, when the market will be worth just under £2bn.

While demand for all product sectors will continue to rise in 2015-18, rates of growth are likely to be more buoyant in the short term, subsiding slightly in 2017-18 as a result of a slowing recovery in the new housebuilding sector, possibility of higher interest rates and uncertainty remaining on public sector capital spending plans.

Growth will also vary between product sectors, with vinyl and wood flooring each expected to enjoy growth of around 9% over the 2015-18 period. Carpet is currently forecast to increase by around 7% over 2015-18 with good prospects for tufted ranges offset by continuing subdued demand in the woven sectors. Rugs are likely to remain popular, benefiting from their flexibility and low cost in changing décor schemes and coordinating with other home furnishing accessories.

A key factor in the market recovery of floorcoverings is likely to remain the recovery of private sector housebuilding and private sector non-residential output into the medium-term, balanced by more subdued demand from key public end-use sectors which are likely to have limited spending capacity for refurbishment and new build into the medium-term.

Continuing pressure on margins and average prices has meant that there has been further change to the supply structure in the UK with further rationalisation of production facilities. In addition, the wider floorcoverings market has seen further development of the growth of larger floorcovering specialist groups.

Intense competition is likely to remain a key characteristic of all flooring sectors into the medium-term, with margins likely to remain under pressure. In terms of supply structure, it is likely that UK manufacturing will be subject to further changes in terms of productions facilities, while in the wider European floorcoverings market there is likely to be further consolidation as the emerging floorcoverings super specialists continued to widen product ranges.

Table Of Contents

Floorcoverings Market Report- UK 2014-2018 Analysis
1. INTRODUCTION 7
1.1 BACKGROUND 7
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 7
2. SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS 9
2.1 SUMMARY 9
2.2 FUTURE PROSPECTS 11
3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 12
3.1 GDP 12
3.2 INFLATION and INTEREST RATES 13
3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT 14
3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 15
3.5 HOUSING and CONSTRUCTION 15
3.6 STERLING 17
3.7 POPULATION PROFILE 17
3.8 CONCLUSIONS 18
4. FLOORCOVERINGS MARKET 19
4.1 DEFINITION 19
4.2 MARKET OVERVIEW 19
4.2.1 Current Situation 21
4.3 PRODUCT MIX 22
4.4 MARKET CHARACTERISTICS 23
4.5 KEY MARKET INFLUENCES 24
4.5.1 The Housing Market 24
4.5.2 Construction Output 27
4.5.3 Domestic Conservatory Market 28
4.5.4 Underfloor Heating Market 29
5. CARPETS 32
5.1 DEFINITION 32
5.2 MARKET SIZE AND CHARACTERISTICS 32
5.2.1 Market Size 32
5.2.2 Market Characteristics 34
5.2.3 Current Situation 35
5.2.4 Future Prospects 35
5.3 INTERNATIONAL TRADE 36
5.3.1 Imports 37
5.3.2 Exports 39
5.4 CARPET PRODUCT MIX 39
5.4.1 Tufted Carpet 40
5.4.2 Woven Carpets 42
5.4.3 Fibre Bonded Carpets 44
5.4.4 Others 44
5.5 CARPET TILES and RUGS 45
5.5.1 Carpet Tiles 45
5.5.2 Rugs 46
5.6 CARPET SUPPLIERS 47
5.6.1 Market Shares 47
6. WOOD FLOORCOVERINGS 52
6.1 DEFINITION 52
6.2 MARKET SIZE 52
6.2.1 Current Situation 54
6.3 PRODUCT MIX 54
6.4 MARKET CHARACTERISTICS 57
6.5 END USE SECTORS 57
6.6 FUTURE PROSPECTS 58
6.7 KEY SUPPLIERS 59
6.7.1 Market Share 60
6.7.2 Key Suppliers 61
7. VINYL FLOORCOVERINGS 64
7.1 DEFINITION 64
7.2 MARKET SIZE 64
7.2.1 Current Situation 66
7.2.2 Future Prospects 67
7.3 INTERNATIONAL TRADE 67
7.4 PRODUCT MIX 68
7.5 END-USE SECTORS 69
7.5.1 Contract Vinyl Sector 71
7.5.2 The Domestic Sector 73
7.6 SUPPLIERS 73
8. OTHER FLOORCOVERINGS 76
8.1 DEFINITION 76
8.1.1 Product Mix 76
8.2 CERAMIC AND PORCELAIN TILES 77
8.2.1 Market Overview 78
8.2.2 International Trade 79
8.2.3 Suppliers of Ceramic Tiles 81
8.3 NATURAL STONE 82
8.3.1 Market Overview 82
8.3.2 Suppliers 83
8.4 LINOLEUM 84
8.4.1 Market Overview 84
8.4.2 International Trade 85
8.5 OTHER FLOORCOVERINGS 86
8.5.1 Cork 86
8.5.2 Rubber 87
8.5.3 Leather and Bamboo 88
9. DISTRIBUTION 90
9.1 OVERVIEW 90
9.2 CONTRACT FLOORCOVERINGS DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS 92
9.2.1 Contract Floorcoverings Distribution Channels 92
9.3 DOMESTIC DISTRIBUTION 93
9.3.1 Domestic Distribution Channel Share 94
9.3.2 Floorcoverings Multiples 95
9.3.3 Furniture and Floorcovering Independents 96
9.3.4 DIY Multiples 97
9.3.5 Furniture and Furnishing Multiples 98
9.3.6 Department Stores and Variety Stores 98
9.3.7 Mail Order and Catalogue Stores 99
9.4 DISTRIBUTORS AND WHOLESALERS 101
9.4.1 Major Wholesalers/Distributors 101
CHART 1 UK FLOORCOVERINGS MARKET SIZE AND FORECASTS 2008-2018 - BY VALUE (£M AT MSP) 9
TABLE 2 GDP DATA - 2011-2014 - KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS 12
CHART 3 INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 1994-2018 14
CHART 4 PDI and SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 1995-2018 15
TABLE 5 EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2009-2015 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 17
CHART 6 UK FLOORCOVERINGS MARKET SIZE AND FORECASTS 2008-2018 - BY VALUE (£M AT MSP) 20
CHART 7 UK FLOORCOVERINGS MARKET PRODUCT MIX 2008 AND 2014 - % BY VALUE 22
TABLE 8 HOUSING COMPLETIONS 2008 TO 2014 (GB) - NUMBER OF DWELLINGS ('000) 24
TABLE 9 NUMBER OF UK RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS 2008 TO 2014 (JAN-OCT) - BY VOLUME (THOUSANDS) 26
TABLE 10 CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT (GREAT BRITAIN) NEW WORK BY SECTOR 2008 TO H12014 -BY VALUE (£M AT CURRENT PRICES) 27
CHART 11 UK CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT NEW WORK BY SECTOR H1 2014 - % BY VALUE 28
TABLE 12 DOMESTIC CONSERVATORY MARKET 2009 TO 2014 - BY VALUE (£M RSP) 29
CHART 13 UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET 2009 TO 2018 - BY VALUE (£M MSP) 30
CHART 14 UK MARKET SIZE AND FORECASTS FOR CARPET 2008 TO 2018 - BY VALUE (£M AT MSP) 33
CHART 15 INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN CARPETS 2008 TO H1 2014 - BY VALUE (£M) 37
TABLE 16 PRODUCT MIX FOR UK CARPET IMPORTS 2013 AND H1 2014 - % BY VALUE (£ M) 38
CHART 17 PRODUCT MIX FOR UK CARPET EXPORTS 2011 AND 2013 - % BY VALUE 39
CHART 18 UK CARPET MARKET PRODUCT MIX (TUFTED, WOVEN, FIBRE BONDED, OTHERS) - 2012 AND 2014 - % BY VALUE 40
CHART19 UK MARKET FOR TUFTED CARPETS 2008 TO 2014 - BY VALUE (£M MSP) 41
CHART 20 UK MARKET FOR WOVEN CARPET 2008-2014 - BY VALUE (£M AT MSP) 43
TABLE 21 LEADING SUPPLIERS TO THE UK CARPET MARKET 2013 TO 2014 48
CHART 22 UK MARKET SIZE AND FORECASTS FOR WOOD FLOORCOVERINGS 2008-2018 - BY VALUE (£M AT MSP) 53
CHART 23 UK MARKET FOR WOOD FLOORCOVERINGS PRODUCT MIX (SOLID, ENGINEERED, LAMINATES) 2014 - % BY VALUE 55
CHART 24 MARKET PERFORMANCE OF SOLID/ENGINEERED WOOD AND LAMINATES 2008 TO 2018 - BY VALUE (£M MSP) 56
CHART 25 UK WOOD FLOORCOVERINGS MARKET - END USE APPLICATION MIX (CONTRACT / DOMESTIC) 2014 - % BY VALUE 58
TABLE 26 LEADING SUPPLIERS TO THE TOTAL UK WOOD FLOORCOVERINGS MARKET 2013 60
CHART 27 UK MARKET SIZE AND FORECASTS FOR VINYL FLOORCOVERINGS 2008-2018 - BY VALUE (£M AT MSP) 64
TABLE 28 INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN VINYL WALL, CEILING AND FLOORCOVERINGS 2008 TO 2013 - BY VALUE (£M) 68
CHART 29 VINYL FLOORCOVERINGS PRODUCT MIX (TILES/SHEETING) 2014 - % BY VALUE 69
CHART 30 UK VINYL FLOORCOVERINGS MARKET END-USE SECTOR MIX 2014 - % BY VALUE 70
TABLE 31 UK VINYL FLOORCOVERINGS END-USE SECTOR MIX (CONTRACT / DOMESTIC) 2009, 2012 AND 2014 - % BY VALUE (£ M MSP) 71
CHART 32 UK MARKET FOR CONTRACT VINYL PRODUCT MIX 2010, 2012 AND 2014 - % BY VALUE 72
TABLE 33 UK SUPPLIERS OF VINYL FLOORCOVERINGS - % SHARE BY VALUE 2014 74
CHART 34 UK MARKET FOR OTHER FLOORCOVERINGS PRODUCT MIX 2014 - (% BY VALUE) 77
CHART 35 UK MARKET FOR CERAMIC AND PORCELAIN FLOOR TILES 2008-2018 - BY VALUE (£M AT MSP) 78
CHART 36 INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN CERAMIC TILES 2008 TO 2013 - BY VALUE (£M) 80
TABLE 37 INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN LINOLEUM FLOORCOVERINGS 2008 TO 2013 - BY VALUE (£ M) 85
CHART 38 MAIN DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS FOR THE UK FLOORCOVERINGS MARKET 91
TABLE 39 CONTRACT FLOORCOVERINGS MARKET - KEY DISTRIBUTION ROUTES - BY PRODUCT (DISTRIBUTORS SPECIALISTS, RETAIL ETC) 93
TABLE 40 DISTRIBUTION OF DOMESTIC FLOORCOVERINGS 2014 - % SHARE BY VALUE 94
TABLE 41 RETAIL SALE OF CARPETS, RUGS AND WALL COVERINGS - NUMBER OF ORGANISATIONS BY TURNOVER BAND 97

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