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Housing Associations Market Report - UK 2014-2018 Analysis

  • February 2014
  • -
  • AMA Research
  • -
  • 105 pages

AMA Research are pleased to announce the publication of the Tenth edition of the report ‘Housing Associations Market Report – UK 2014 – 2018 Analysis’. The report incorporates original input and primary research, and represents an up-to-date and perceptive review of the market and its development.

This unique report provides a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the Private Registered Providers market (more generally known as Housing Associations) focusing on market size and trends, housing mix, new development pipelines and future prospects.

Key issues include:

Review of UK Social Housing Market – Local Authority and Housing Association sectors – size, structure, growth, political issues, future trends.
Identification of major Housing Associations in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
New Build – Review of government programmes including NAHP/AHP – prospects for 2014-2018 construction activity.
RMI – expenditure levels, trends and forecasts, progress of Decent Homes programme.
Future prospects –changing roles of Housing Associations and local authorities, stock transfer, public/private funding, new build programmes.
The overall Housing Association market is estimated at almost 3 million dwellings in 2013/14 – around 10% of UK housing stock. The sector offers major opportunities for contractors and building material suppliers and the market has grown through a combination of LSVTs and new build. In addition, the Decent Homes programme has stimulated improvement of existing homes, driving demand for a wide range of materials.

Areas of particular interest include:

Market activity levels with forecasts to 2018, including stock, new build completions, and refurbishment.
Review of Affordable Homes Programme – 2015 – 2018: – 165,000 dwellings - budgets, build levels, finance options, key HAs with development grants.
Top 30 HAs with development pipelines/volume estimates – profiles of top players.
Analysis of the housing mix in housing associations – social rental, shared ownership, care homes, student accommodation.
Review of key market influences and schemes – HCA funding, Right to Buy, Get Britain Building, Affordable Rent to Buy etc.

Key areas covered in the report :

HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS MARKET
Review of social housing structure. Market size in stock terms from 2006 with forecasts through to 2018. Overview of total UK housing stock/share by sector, regional mix. Mix between LA’s and HA’s – changing trends.
Market size - Social Housing new build starts and completions - forecast through to 2018.
Analysis of Repair Maintenance and Improvement on Housing Association properties – Total RMI spend up to 2016 – breakdown of major repairs, planned maintenance etc. Decent Homes Programme – backlog volumes, funding support up to 2018.
Review of key market influences – economic factors, government policies, housing affordability, Large Scale Voluntary Transfers, Right to Buy, etc.
Key regulatory and funding organisations and their role (HCA, National Housing Federation etc). Planning issues,
Future prospects for the market.

HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS
Review of major Housing Associations – dwelling stock, key characteristics, regional strengths, market positioning etc in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Market shares of major Housing Associations in each of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – mix of stock by HA size and region in 2013.
Housing Associations developing their business models - regional breakdown within shared ownership, key care home providers amongst the Housing Associations, Housing Associations providing purpose built student accommodation etc.

SOCIAL HOUSING DEVELOPMENT PLANS
Overview of £3.3 billion HCA funding in 2015-2018.
Review of key government affordable housing programmes – current 2011-2015 AHP programme, new AHP (Affordable Homes Programme) - investment levels 2015-2018. Split by year by value and volume. Review of programmes in England and Scotland.
New Build programmes – targets, grants awarded to key HAs – key players in the development market
Top 30 HAs with development pipelines/volume estimates up to 2020.
Private financing – sources of private finance, major lenders, areas of significant expenditure. New entrants/schemes. Leading HAs with recent bond issues in 2013.

SPECIFICATION AND BUYING PROCESS
Specification process – key influencers on the process.
Growth of buying consortia – Alliance – procurement initiative between Procurement for Housing, Fusion 21 and Northern Housing Consortium.
Influence of Government initiatives on buying and specification – partnering arrangements, framework agreements (New Build frameworks), PEI (Procurement Efficiency Initiative) – 13 consortia.
Key contractors – key schemes, value of contracts. Future trends and changes.

Housing Associations form the largest not-for-profit grouping in the country, working closely with both private and public organisations. The sector has grown dramatically following the large-scale voluntary transfer (LSVT) of council homes in the 1990s. Housing Associations in England now own some 2.8m homes - around 93% of all UK H.A. stock and around 10% of total housing stock.
In 2013, total UK Housing Association stock increased to 2,798,000 units with increases in all types of housing. Around 75% of market stock owned or managed by Housing Associations is general needs housing, which is primarily social rental accommodation.

The Housing Association sector is diverse, with around 1,700 associations in the UK varying in size from under 10 homes to more than 50,000. However, over 95% of homes are managed by the top 400 Housing Associations with at least 1,000 social homes each.
The top 30 Housing Association groups in England accounted for around 1.3m units in 2013, around 48% of the market. Since the previous edition of this report in 2011, the top 30 groups have gained over 267,000 units, reflecting continued consolidation with larger groups gaining share.

Housing Associations are currently facing a period of unprecedented change in the sector, with changes to the welfare system and the introduction of the Affordable Rents Model representing new risks and challenges. At the same time, the Government has moved towards a period of greater self-regulation in the sector.

In addition, registered providers now face reduced capital grants for housing development, with the affordable housing budget cut by 60% over the 2011-2015 period. As a result, many Housing Associations have been forced to take on increasing amounts of borrowing and risk by seeking alternative models of finance including the bond and equity markets to fund development.
In the 2013 Spending Round, the Government announced a further investment of £160m in 2015-16 to help towards completing the Decent Homes Programme and plans to further boost the Right to Buy Scheme by introducing Right to Buy Agents to help purchasers and provide £100m to establish a fund to increase sales by improving access to mortgage finance.
Post 2015, the Government has announced plans for £3.3bn of capital investment to build 165,000 new affordable homes under a new 3-year Affordable Homes Programme (AHP) to 2017-18. The extension of the AHP will see around £957m of funding each year from 2015-16 to 2017-18, and a £400m Affordable Rent to Buy scheme, to deliver 165,000 new affordable homes. Over the 3 years 2015-2018 this is a reduction in total funding of around 27% on the current AHP.
Going forward, the most successful Housing Associations will be those that can adapt their business models and extend into a wider range of land and development activities such as self-build and co-operative housing.

Table Of Contents

Housing Associations Market Report - UK 2014-2018 Analysis
1. INTRODUCTION 8
2. SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS 10
3. SOCIAL HOUSING IN THE UK 14
3.1 SOCIAL HOUSING MARKET - DEFINITIONS 14
3.2 HOUSING MARKET STRUCTURE 14
3.2.1 All Dwellings 14
3.2.2 Social Housing 16
3.3 SOCIAL HOUSING REGULATION AND CONTROL 19
3.3.1 England 19
3.3.2 Wales 20
3.3.3 Scotland 22
3.3.4 Northern Ireland 23
3.4 FUNDING FOR THE SOCIAL HOUSING MARKET 23
3.4.1 Public Sector Funding - England 24
3.4.2 Public Sector Funding - Wales 30
3.4.3 Public Sector Funding - Scotland 32
3.4.4 Public Sector Funding - Northern Ireland 34
3.4.5 Private Sector Funding 34
4. HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS MARKET 37
4.1 MARKET DEFINITION 37
4.2 MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 37
4.2.1 Future Drivers of Social Housing 39
4.3 MARKET MIX 41
4.4 HOUSING ASSOCIATION NEW STARTS AND COMPLETIONS 44
4.4.1 Size of Housing Association Completions 45
4.4.2 Social Housing Development Pipeline 46
4.5 PUBLIC HOUSING RMI 50
4.5.1 Social Housing RMI Output 52
4.6 KEY MARKET INFLUENCES 52
4.6.1 Economic, Demographic and Social Trends 52
4.6.2 Government Policy on Social Housing 54
4.6.3 Housing Affordability 56
4.6.4 Planning 58
4.6.5 Large Scale Voluntary Transfers (LSVTs) 60
4.6.6 Right to Buy 60
4.7 BUYING AND SPECIFICATION 62
4.7.1 Overview 62
4.7.2 Procurement Routes - Future Changes 65
4.7.3 Key Contractors in the Social Housing Sector 68
5. HOUSING ASSOCIATION ACTIVITIES 72
5.1 HOUSING MIX 72
5.2 SOCIAL RENTED HOUSING - GENERAL NEEDS STOCK 73
5.2.1 Size of Stock 73
5.2.2 Geographical Location of PRP Stock 73
5.2.3 Social Housing Rents 74
5.2.4 Decent Homes 76
5.3 SOCIAL HOMEBUY 78
5.4 CARE HOMES 79
5.4.1 Size of the Market 79
5.4.2 Supply and Demand 80
5.4.3 Care Home Stock 81
5.4.4 Private Care Home Market 82
5.4.5 Voluntary/Not-for-Profit Sector 83
5.4.6 The Extra Care Sector 85
5.5 STUDENT ACCOMMODATION 87
5.5.1 Market Overview and Size 87
5.5.2 Student Accommodation Development Pipeline 88
5.5.3 Leading Providers of Student Accommodation 89
6. KEY HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS 91
6.1 MARKET STRUCTURE 91
6.2 ENGLAND - KEY HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS 91
6.2.1 Overview 91
6.2.2 Housing Associations in London 93
6.2.3 Housing Association Profiles 93
6.3 SCOTLAND - KEY HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS 100
6.4 WALES - KEY HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS 102
6.5 NORTHERN IRELAND - KEY HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS 105

CHART 1: UK HOUSING ASSOCIATION STOCK 2008-2018 (‘000S) 10
TABLE 2: ENGLAND DWELLING STOCK BY TENURE (‘000S) 2008-2012 14
CHART 3: HOUSING STOCK BY COUNTRY AND TENURE 2012 (%) 15
CHART 4: UK SOCIAL HOUSING COMPLETIONS 1993-2013 17
CHART 5: SOCIAL HOUSING COMPLETIONS 2012-13 - MIX BY COUNTRY 18
TABLE 6: UK SOCIAL HOUSING - % DWELLING STOCK 2003-2013 BY TENURE - MIX BETWEEN PRP AND LA 19
CHART 7: HCA BUDGET BY PROGRAMME 2011 - 2015 (%) - DECENT HOMES, AFFORDABLE HOUSING, FIRSTBUY ETC 20
TABLE 8: HCA BUDGET BY PROGRAMME 2011 - 2015 - AFFORDABLE HOMES, DECENT HOMES, FIRSTBUY, LAND and REGENERATION 25
TABLE 9: SUMMARY OF HCA FUNDING ALLOCATIONS and ACTIVITY: ENGLAND 2011-2015 - AFFORDABLE HOUSING PROGRAMME / DECENT HOMES 25
TABLE 10: ENGLAND - AFFORDABLE HOMES PROGRAMME 2011-2015 - TOTAL FUNDING AND NO. OF UNITS BY HCA OPERATING REGION (£M/DWELLINGS) 27
TABLE 11: ENGLAND - AFFORDABLE HOMES PROGRAMME 2011-15: GRANTS AWARDED TO TOP 20 HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS BY NO. HOMES PLANNED and BY TENURE- APPROVALS 28
CHART 12: WALES - SOCIAL HOUSING GRANT FUNDING (£M) 2007-2016 31
TABLE 13: SCOTLAND - AFFORDABLE HOMES SUPPLY PROGRAMME (AHSP) 2012-2016: ALLOCATIONS BY COUNCIL (£M) 33
TABLE 14: LEADING HOUSING ASSOCIATION BOND ISSUES: 2013-14 (£M) 36
TABLE 15: UK HOUSING ASSOCIATION STOCK 2008-2018 (‘000S) 38
CHART 16: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS IN ENGLAND BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS 2013 (%) 41
CHART 17: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS AND STOCK HOLDINGS IN ENGLAND BY SIZE OF ASSOCIATION 2013 42
CHART 18: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING ASSOCIATION STOCK BY REGION - ENGLAND 2013 (%) 42
CHART 19: HOUSING ASSOCIATION NEW STARTS AND COMPLETIONS UK: 2008 - 2018 - BY VOLUME OF DWELLINGS 44
TABLE 20: HOUSING ASSOCIATION COMPLETIONS BY SIZE OF DWELLING 2008-09 TO 2012-13: ENGLAND (% MIX HOUSES/FLATS) 46
TABLE 21: AHP - TOTAL STARTS AND COMPLETIONS BY YEAR: 2011-2015 47
TABLE 22: AFFORDABLE HOMES DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE: TOP 30 HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS BY NO. AFFORDABLE UNITS DEVELOPED/APPROVED FOR THE AHP 2011-2015 AND NO. HOMES PLANNED FOR 2015-2020 49
TABLE 23: EXPENDITURE ON HOUSING ASSOCIATION PROPERTIES - MAJOR REPAIRS, PLANNED MAINTENANCE, SERVICE COSTS: 2008-12 (£M) 50
CHART 24: ESTIMATED TOTAL EXPENDITURE ON HOUSING ASSOCIATION RMI: 2010 -2016 51
TABLE 25: HOUSEHOLD MIX ESTIMATES (MULTI / SINGLE PERSON) - UK 2005 - 2033 (‘000S) 53
TABLE 26: AFFORDABILITY FACTORS UK - SIMPLE AVERAGE PRICE, MORTGAGE ADVANCE AND INCOME (£) 2005-2012 57
TABLE 27: ‘RIGHT TO BUY' AND ‘RIGHT TO ACQUIRE' SALES, ENGLAND 61
TABLE 28: LEADING CONTRACTORS IN THE SOCIAL HOUSING SECTOR 2013 (VALUE OF CONTRACTS and KEY HA CLIENTS) 69
CHART 29: HA STOCK IN ENGLAND BY TYPE 2013 (%) 72
TABLE 30: ENGLAND -GENERAL NEEDS SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK BY SIZE OF DWELLING 2013 (%) 73
TABLE 31: ENGLAND - REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF GENERAL NEEDS SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK 2013 - LARGE PRPS (%)* 74
TABLE 32: ENGLAND - GENERAL NEEDS HOUSING - RENTS PER REGION 2013 (£/WK) 75
TABLE 33: ENGLAND - GENERAL NEEDS HOUSING RENTS PER REGION 2013 (£/WK) - AFFORDABLE RENTS MODEL VS. GENERAL RENTS 76
TABLE 34: HOUSING ASSOCIATION PROPERTIES FAILING TO MEET THE DECENT HOMES STANDARD 2010, 2011 AND 2013 (‘000S) 77
TABLE 35: NUMBER OF HOMES MADE DECENT WITHIN PRP SECTOR AND AVERAGE COST PER UNIT (£) 2011 - 2015 78
TABLE 36: ENGLAND - SOCIAL HOUSING SALES - ANNUAL SOCIAL HOMEBUY SALES 2006-2013 78
TABLE 37: LONG-TERM CARE MARKET BY OWNERSHIP TYPE (INDEPENDENT, LA, VOLUNTARY, NHS) - NUMBER OF CARE HOMES/BED-SPACES 2012-13* 80
CHART 38: AVERAGE SIZE OF CARE HOMES IN ENGLAND 2013 82
TABLE 39: LEADING 10 PRIVATE PROVIDERS OF LONG-TERM CARE* NUMBER OF HOMES AND BED SPACES - 2013 83
TABLE 40: LEADING 10 VOLUNTARY SECTOR PROVIDERS OF LONG-TERM CARE* 84
TABLE 41: TOP 15 HOUSING ASSOCIATION PROVIDERS OF EXTRACARE HOUSING 86
CHART 42: TYPES OF STUDENT ACCOMMODATION IN THE UK - APPROXIMATE SHARE BY TYPE 2013 88
TABLE 43: MARKET SHARES OF LEADING COMMERCIAL and HA OPERATORS OF STUDENT ACCOMMODATION IN THE UK (INCL. HA'S) 2013-14 90
TABLE 44: TOP 30 HA GROUPS IN ENGLAND BY TOTAL STOCK OWNED (2013) UNITS MANAGED / MARKET SHARE 92
CHART 45: SANCTUARY HOUSING GROUP HOUSING MIX 2013 - GENERAL, SHELTERED/SUPPORTED, STUDENT/KEY WORKER ETC 94
CHART 46: PLACES FOR PEOPLE HOUSING MIX 2013 96
CHART 47: LONDON and QUADRANT HOUSING GROUP HOUSING MIX 2013 97
CHART 48: CIRCLE HOUSING GROUP HOUSING MIX 2013 98
CHART 49: GUINNESS PARTNERSHIP HOUSING MIX 2013 100
TABLE 50: TOP 30 HA GROUPS IN SCOTLAND BY TOTAL STOCK OWNED (2013) UNITS MANAGED / MARKET SHARE 101
TABLE 51: MAJOR HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS IN WALES 2013: UNITS MANAGED/ MARKET SHARES 103
TABLE 52: MAJOR HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS IN NORTHERN IRELAND 2013 UNITS MANAGED / MARKET SHARES 105

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