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  4. > Panellised Modular Building Systems Market Report – UK 2014-2018 Analysis

AMA Research have just published the fifth edition of the report “Panellised Modular Building Systems Market Report – UK 2014-2018 Analysis”. Previously named 'Prefabricated Frame and Panel Building Systems' this edition of the report, incorporating original input and primary research, has been substantially updated and represents an up-to-date review of this changing and complex market.

Key issues covered include:

• Market Size & Structure – Market value, trends, forecasts for future growth, key influencing factors etc.


• Product Mix – Mix by value of Timber Frame, Light Steel Framing, Concrete and Structural Insulated Panels.


• Key End User Sectors – Analysis of end user sectors, mix by value, future potential- including commercial and industrial, MoD, residential, healthcare, education, hotels, prisons, student accommodation, etc.


• Major Suppliers – Market shares, market position, relative end user strengths and company profiles.


• Forecasts – trends up to 2018 and key driving factors.

Following a difficult period for the sector, market performance is slowly improving in 2013/14 and panellised modular building systems have substantial market potential in the medium term, and are forecast to demonstrate long-term growth - particularly as key public sector departments focus more on energy-efficiency and cost-savings through the Modular Building Systems Framework to deliver large-scale development programmes.

Of particular interest:

• Forecasts of performance for the UK panellised modular building systems market - 2014-2018.


• Review of the principal frame and panel product sectors by value - timber frame, light gauge structural steel structural framing, concrete, and structural insulated panels.


• Performance of key end use markets including student accommodation, housebuilding, defence, health, education, infrastructure etc.


• Review of major suppliers - shares, key players, changes in market structure.


• Up-to-date review and forecasts of construction trends.


Companies mentioned in the report include:

Ayrshire Metal Products, Bell and Webster Concrete, Bison Manufacturing, Buchan Concrete Solutions, BW Industries, Creagh Concrete Products, Deeside Timberframe, Frame Homes (South West), Hanson Structherm, Kingspan Timber Solutions, Laing O’Rourke, Lanefield Timber Frame, McAvoy Group, Merronbrook, Metek Building Systems, Metsec, Oregon Timber Frame, Pinewood Structures, Prestoplan, Robertson Timber Engineering, Roe Timberframe, Space 4, Stewart Milne Group, Taylor Lane Timber Frame, Walker Timber Group, Western Building Systems.

The report covers the following key areas:

THE MARKET

• Total Panellised Modular Building Systems Market 2008-2018 - market analysis by value and forecasts. Current market performance in 2013/2014.


• Key influencing factors affecting market performance – level of construction and manufacturing activity, trends in flats, affordable homes, quality issues, Government's Modular Building Systems Framework, trends leading to demand for prefabricated panellised systems in key sectors e.g. healthcare, education, MoD, residential, prisons, hotels, asylum/immigration centres etc.


• Product Mix - analysis by product type – timber frame, light steel framing, concrete, structural insulated panels, etc. sector market sizes, changing trends and future prospects, key application areas.


• Key areas of end user growth, and forecasts for product mix in 2018.


END USE SECTORS

• Mix of key end user sectors by value. Performance in 2013/2014.


• Key end user sectors – Reviews of major end user groups and subsectors e.g. Commercial and industrial, Education, Healthcare, residential, defence, hotel/catering, prisons, asylum centres, etc.


• Key future trends for the usage of panellised systems, growth potential of the sector, product issues, long term growth of apartment blocks, etc.


• Key suppliers to the various end user sectors.


• Influencing factors of future end user growth potential, e.g. building information modelling (BIM), trends in capital expenditure and accommodation requirements, major changes in health and education. Student Accommodation, hotels market performance etc.


MARKET / PRODUCT SPECIFICATION ISSUES

• General trend towards OSM (Off-Site Manufacturing) to improve quality standards and address problems of site skills shortages, waste minimisation.


• Review of broad levels of specification in end user sectors.


SUPPLIERS

• Market Shares of the major suppliers in the panellised building systems market – 2013 by value.


• Profiles of major suppliers including turnover, market share estimates, market positioning, brand names etc.


• Review of the key channels of distribution used by leading suppliers – direct supply, contractors, etc.


• Key end user sectors of individual suppliers and future growth potential etc.


The UK market for panellised modular building systems is estimated to be worth some £440 million in 2013.

The market comprises factory manufactured, 2-dimensional frames or panels for constructing walls, partitions, roofs and floors, typically supplied to site as systems in flat-pack format. The main material used is timber, with other competing materials being light gauge steel, precast concrete and panels made from insulated oriented strand boards (SIPS).

The market has remained subdued following a period of significant decline between 2008 and 2010, primarily due to the downturn in housebuilding activity, cuts in public sector capital expenditure, the completion of major public sector construction projects and falling investment in private sector newbuild.

From 2013 onwards the tentative recovery in the economy, driven by the recovery in the UK housing and London office construction sectors have fed through to increased demand for MMC, partly due to temporary shortages of aircrete blocks and bricks. However, from 2015 the market is likely to experience more modest growth rates as this situation changes.

The timber frame sector is by far the largest under review, with trends here largely underpinning those at the overall level. By value, the timber frame market was worth around £400m at msp. The three other sub-sectors are much smaller, accounting collectively for around £110m.

Key end use sectors for panellised modular building systems are houses, apartment blocks, schools, budget hotels, smaller healthcare and care facilities and purpose built student accommodation. However, demand across the public sector has been impacted upon by cuts at central departmental, agency and local authority levels.

The industry has undergone some restructuring in recent years, with the exit of a number of major suppliers, particularly in the timber frame sector. Market supply is fairly fragmented, with no suppliers having dominant market shares - there are only three relatively large manufacturers of timber frame system that regularly report annual sales over £20m.

There could be a sustained recovery in demand for panellised modular systems in the short to medium term provided that key construction sectors, such as the private housebuilding sector, continue to recover. The government’s pledge to support the development of up to 30,000 affordable homes in England and the need to accommodate thousands of armed forces personnel relocating from Germany should mean that affordable housing will provide a key sector for growth.

Another key driver should be the government’s Modular Building Systems Framework, which should encourage the increasing specification of steel frame and timber frame modular building systems on public sector projects. Other factors that should help overcome barriers to specification include the mandatory implementation of BIM across the public sector and the introduction of a quality assurance scheme by Build Offsite.

Taking these factors into account, forecasts for the short to medium term are for steady growth within the range of 3-5% per annum.

Table Of Contents

Panellised Modular Building Systems Market Report - UK 2014-2018 Analysis
1. INTRODUCTION 7
1.1 BACKGROUND 7
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 7
2. SUMMARY 9
3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 12
3.1 GDP 12
3.2 INFLATION and INTEREST RATES 13
3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT 14
3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 15
3.5 HOUSING and CONSTRUCTION 15
3.6 STERLING 17
3.7 POPULATION PROFILE 18
3.8 CONCLUSIONS 18
4. THE MARKET 20
4.1 MARKET DEFINITION 20
4.2 MARKET SIZE, RECENT TRENDS AND INDUSTRY PROSPECTS 20
4.3 KEY MARKET FACTORS 24
4.3.1 Housebuilding and Non-Housing Construction Output 24
4.3.2 Government Policy 29
4.3.3 Building Information Modelling 30
4.3.4 Shortages in Traditional Construction Skills 31
4.3.5 Perceptions of Costs and Risks 32
4.3.6 Quality Assurance 33
4.3.7 Sustainability Issues 34
5. PRODUCT MIX 35
5.1 OVERVIEW 35
5.2 TIMBER FRAME 36
5.2.1 Definition 36
5.2.2 Market Size and Sector Trends 36
5.3 LIGHT STEEL FRAME 39
5.3.1 Definition 39
5.3.2 Sector Size and Trends 39
5.4 PRECAST CONCRETE PANEL SYSTEMS 40
5.4.1 Definition 40
5.4.2 Sector Size and Trends 40
5.5 STRUCTURAL INSULATED PANEL SYSTEMS (SIPS) 41
5.5.1 Definition 41
5.5.2 Sector Size and Trends 41
5.6 DISTRIBUTION PROCESS FOR PANELLISED MODULAR BUILDING SYSTEMS 42
6. END USE MIX 45
6.1 END USE SECTOR DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW 45
6.2 HOUSING 46
6.2.1 Overview 46
6.2.2 Social Housing 48
6.2.3 Private Housing Developments 51
6.2.4 Self-build 51
6.3 COMMERCIAL 52
6.3.1 Overview 52
6.3.2 Education 53
6.3.3 Healthcare 54
6.3.4 Hotels 55
6.3.5 Defence 56
6.3.6 Retail and Leisure 57
7. SUPPLY 59
7.1 MARKET SHARES 59
7.2 TIMBER FRAME 60
7.2.1 Light steel frame manufacturers 63
7.2.2 Precast Concrete Panel Sytems 64
7.2.3 Structural Insulated Panel Systems
CHART 1 UK PANELLISED MODULAR BUILDING SYSTEMS MARKET BY VALUE (MSP) 2008-2018 9
TABLE 2 GDP DATA: 2011-2014 - KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS 12
CHART 3 INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) 2000 -2018 14
CHART 4 PDI and SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 2000 -2018 15
TABLE 5 EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS £ STERLING TO THE US DOLLAR AND THE EURO - SPOT RATES 2008-2014 17
TABLE 6 UK PANELLISED MODULAR BUILDING MARKET BY VALUE(£M MSP) 2008-2013 AND FORECASTS 2014 -2018 21
CHART 7 GB HOUSING STARTS AND COMPLETIONS BY VOLUME (DWELLINGS) 2007 - 2017 24
CHART 8 UK HOUSEBUILDING MARKET - MIX BY SECTOR AND BUILD METHOD (MMC/TRADITIONAL) BY VOLUME 26
TABLE 9 NON-DOMESTIC CONSTRUCTION NEW WORK OUTPUT BY END USE SECTOR- BY VALUE (£ BILLION AT CURRENT PRICES) 2010 - 2013 AND FORECASTS 2014 -2018. 28
CHART 10 UK MARKET FOR PANELLISED BUILDING SYSTEMS SYSTEM BY PANEL MATERIAL BY VALUE (TIMBER, LIGHT STEEL, CONCRETE, SIPS) 2013 35
TABLE 11 GB TIMBER FRAME HOUSING OUTPUT BY VOLUME AND SHARE 2007 -2013 AND FORECASTS 2014 -2018 37
CHART 12 UK TIMBER FRAME HOUSING OUTPUT BY SECTOR (PRIVATE, SOCIAL AND SELF BUILD) BY VOLUME 2013 38
CHART 13 DISTRIBUTION/BUILDING PROCESS FOR PANELLISED BUILDING SYSTEMS 43
CHART 14 PANELLISED MODULAR BUILDING SYSTEMS BY END USE SECTORS (RESIDENTIAL, MOD, HEALTHCARE, EDUCATION, HOTELS ETC.) BY VALUE 2013 46
TABLE 15 UK HOUSING OUTPUT BY BUILDING METHOD (BRICK and BLOCK, TIMBER FRAME, LSF, PRECAST PANELS) BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS 2008 - 2013 47
CHART 16 UK PANELLISED MODULAR BUILDING SYSTEMS MARKET SHARES BY TYPES OF DWELLING 48
CHART 17 UK SOCIAL/AFFORDABLE HOUSEBUILDING OUTPUT - % SHARE BY MAIN CONSTRUCTION METHODS (TIMBER FRAME, MASONRY, OTHERS) - BY VOLUME 2013 49
CHART 18 AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEWBUILD IN ENGLAND 2003-04 TO 2012-13 50
CHART 19 UK PRIVATE HOUSING COMPLETIONS % SHARE BY MAIN METHODS OF CONSTRUCTION METHOD BY VOLUME 2013 51
CHART 20 UK SELF-BUILD COMPLETIONS % SHARE BY PRINCIPAL CONSTRUCTION METHOD BY VOLUME 2013 52
CHART 21 ESTIMATED NUMBER OF NEW STUDENT BED SPACES BUILT PER YEAR - 2008-2018 54
TABLE 22 BUDGET HOTEL SECTOR - TOTAL SUPPLY OF ROOMS 2008 - 2013 56
TABLE 23 SUPPLIER SHARES - PANELLISED MODULAR BUILDING SYSTEMS MARKET - BY VALUE

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