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Self Build Housing Market Report - UK 2016-2020 Analysis

  • April 2016
  • -
  • AMA Research
  • -
  • 83 pages

The 6th edition of the 'Self Build Housing Market Report – UK 2016-2020 Analysis' focuses on the structure, size and performance of the self build market in terms of volume completions and value, together with forecasts for the sector through to 2020-21. The report also provides a review of the key market influences and the main challenges facing the self build market at present.

Key sections covered:

• Self/custom build housing market - market size by volume and value, historical and recent trends, sector shares, regional variations etc.
• Build options - timber frame, traditional brick & block and cost structures review.
• Supply structure - key players, kit suppliers etc.
• Product distribution - channel shares, review of; builders merchants, electrical wholesalers, specialist retailers, direct sell, internet, DIY and self build specialists.
• Forecasts - alternative growth scenarios and influence of recent government initiatives to encourage self build into the medium term.

Key areas of insight include:

• Review of the self/custom build market over 2014-15 including market volumes, trends, overall market value, public & private sector involvement in self build, regional trends and variations, etc.
• Analysis of factors underpinning and limiting market growth - land availability, access to finance, recent planning and housing policy changes, and financial incentives to promote self build.
• Overview of self build costs in relation to land, labour, materials, plant hire, etc.
• Market prospects for 2016-17 and longer term trends up to 2020 with self build market completions with scenarios based on alternative views - current government housing targets and average growth predictions – realistic targets?
• Key suppliers – timber frame, distribution etc.

THE SELF BUILD HOUSING MARKET

• Overview of overall UK housebuilding market – starts and completions 2010-15 and forecasts to 2020, role of public and private sectors, regional housebuilding, materials mix and role played by self build sector.
• Review of the self / custom build housing sector - current estimates of market size, definitions, factors influencing definition, construction routes, role played by the public & private sectors, etc.
• Market size in value and volume terms 2010-15 and forecasts through to 2020 – based on government targets and alternative forecasts scenarios.
• Underlying influencing factors in recent years – key positive and negative influencing factors including availability and price of land, access to finance, etc.
• Government policies – rise of self build up the political agenda – funding support, planning system changes, land allocation by councils, recent changes in 2015 etc.
• Current situation – factors and challenges influencing the market in 2014-15, prospects for 2016 and outlook into the medium-term including planning issues, availability of land, community infrastructure levy, etc.
• Geographical variations in the UK self build market – proportion of self build completions for each region of the UK, regional self build costs.
• Self build costs – analysis of cost areas including, land, labour, materials, plant hire, miscellaneous costs, etc as well as review of elements of self build projects such as foundations, heating, electrics, etc.

SPECIFICATION / PURCHASING

• Motivations and influences – Key Issues affecting motivation to self-build, processes and specifications, land availability, housing market performance.
• Self-build project – Overall value/share mix by key elements – land, materials, labour, services etc., volume of timber frame in self build, generic characteristics of a self-build project, key financing sources etc.
• Key specification issues – Key influences in specification.
• Analysis of major distribution channels in self build – builders/plumbers merchants, electrical wholesalers, DIY multiples, specialist, internet, others, etc.
• Key players by channel – shares, sector strengths and weaknesses etc.

FUTURE PROSPECTS

• Market prospects in 2016-17 - key drivers for and longer term prospects up to 2020.
• Key growth sectors for self build assessed against government targets for future housebuilding and the role of self build.
• Forecast scenarios to 2020

Table Of Contents

Self Build Housing Market Report - UK 2016-2020 Analysis
1. INTRODUCTION 7
1.1 BACKGROUND 7
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 7
2. SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS 9
2.1 SUMMARY 9
2.2 FUTURE PROSPECTS 10
3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 12
3.1 GDP 12
3.2 INFLATION and INTEREST RATES 13
3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT 14
3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 14
3.5 HOUSING and CONSTRUCTION 15
3.6 STERLING 15
3.7 POPULATION PROFILE 16
3.8 CONCLUSIONS 16
4. OVERALL HOUSEBUILDING MARKET 18
4.1 TOTAL HOUSING STARTS AND COMPLETIONS 18
4.2 PRIVATE AND PUBLIC SECTOR 19
4.2.1 Private Sector 19
4.2.2 Public Sector 19
4.3 HOUSEBUILDING AND THE 2015 SPENDING REVIEW 20
4.4 REGIONAL HOUSEBUILDING 21
4.5 HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS MIX 21
4.6 HOUSEBUILDING BY TYPE OF MATERIAL 22
4.6.1 General UK Housebuilding Sector 22
4.6.2 Self Build Housing Sector 25
5. SELF BUILD MARKET IN THE UK 29
5.1 INTRODUCTION 29
5.1.1 International Self Build Market 29
5.2 SELF-BUILD DEFINITIONS AND TERMINOLOGY 30
5.2.1 Self Build Construction Routes 30
5.2.2 Self Build Land/Property Sales Channels 31
5.3 SIZE OF THE SELF-BUILD MARKET 33
5.3.1 Overview 33
5.3.2 Self-Build Volumes 33
5.3.3 Value of Self-Build Market 36
5.3.4 Key Driver for Future Growth 37
5.4 CHALLENGES TO THE UK SELF BUILD MARKET 39
5.4.1 Financial Issues 39
5.4.2 Planning Issues 40
5.4.3 Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) 41
5.4.4 Section 106 Agreements 41
5.5 SELF BUILD - PRIVATE AND SOCIAL SECTORS 41
5.6 UK SELF BUILD MARKET GEOGRAPHICAL VARIATIONS 44
5.6.1 Self Build as a Proportion of New Build Housing 44
5.6.2 Self Build Market % Share by Country 45
5.6.3 Self-Build Market in England 46
5.6.4 Regional Self Build Costs 48
5.7 SELF-BUILD COSTS 49
5.7.1 Overview 49
5.7.2 Value of Individual Cost Sectors 50
5.7.3 Self Build - Mix of Product Sectors 52
6. MARKET INFLUENCES 53
6.1 HOUSE PRICES AND HOUSING AFFORDABILITY 53
6.1.1 Average Price of Building Plots 54
6.2 DISTRIBUTION AND MARKETING 55
6.3 ENVIRONMENTAL PRODUCTS 57
6.3.1 Government Policy 58
6.3.2 Carbon Emissions 58
6.3.3 Energy Consumption in the Domestic Sector 59
6.4 RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCTS IN THE SELF BUILD SECTOR 64
6.4.1 Heat Pumps 64
6.4.2 Biomass 66
6.4.3 Solar and Thermal Heating 67
7. SELF-BUILD MARKET - DISTRIBUTION AND SUPPLY 68
7.1 KEY PRODUCT SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS 68
7.2 BUILDERS MERCHANTS 70
7.3 ELECTRICAL WHOLESALERS 71
7.4 DIY MULTIPLES 72
7.5 SPECIALIST SUPPLIERS TO THE SELF-BUILD MARKET 74
7.5.1 Timber Frame Kits 75
7.5.2 Oak-Framed Housing 80
7.5.3 Brick and Block Packages 80
7.5.4 Suppliers of Other Self-Build Products 81


List of Charts and Tables

CHART 1 UK MARKET SIZE AND FORECASTS FOR SELF BUILD HOUSING 2010 TO2020 - BY VALUE (£BN) 9
TABLE 2 GDP DATA 2012 TO 2015 - KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS 12
CHART 3 INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 2000 TO 2020 13
CHART 4 PDI and SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 2000 TO 2020 14
TABLE 5 EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2011 TO 2017 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 16
CHART 6 HOUSEBUILDING STARTS and COMPLETIONS AND FORECASTS (GB) 2010 - 2020 - BY VOLUME 18
TABLE 7 HOUSING COMPLETIONS (UK) 2010 TO 2014 - BY VOLUME (‘000 DWELLINGS) 19
CHART 8 TOTAL UK HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS MIX BY REGION Q1-Q3 2015 % BY VOLUME 21
CHART 9 ENGLAND HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS MIX (HOUSES AND FLATS) 2009 - 2015 - % BY VOLUME 22
CHART 10 UK HOUSEBUILDING MARKET MIX BY MAIN METHOD OF CONSTRUCTION 2015 - % BY VOLUME (MASONRY, TIMBER FRAME, OTHERS) 23
CHART 11 UK TIMBER FRAME HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS 2005 TO 2015 - BY VOLUME (‘000) 24
CHART 12 UK TIMBER FRAME HOUSING ESTIMATED COMPLETIONS BY SECTOR 2015 - % BY VOLUME (PRIVATE, SOCIAL, SELF BUILD) 25
TABLE 13 UK SELF BUILD MARKET - ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF MAIN CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL (TIMBER FRAME AND MASONRY) 27
CHART 14 SELF BUILD AS A % OF NEW BUILD HOUSING - INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS 29
CHART 15 SELF BUILD LAND/PROPERTY SALES CHANNELS 32
CHART 16 UK SELF BUILD MARKET COMPLETIONS 2010-2020 - BY VOLUME (‘000 DWELLINGS) (BASED ON 3 FORECAST SCENARIOS) 34
TABLE 17 UK MARKET FOR SELF-BUILD HOUSING 2010 TO 2020 BY VALUE (£BN) 36
CHART 18 MIX OF PRIVATE AND SOCIAL SELF-BUILD MARKET BY VOLUME 2015 42
CHART 19 SELF BUILD SHARE OF TOTAL PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSING MARKET UK BY COUNTRY (ENGLAND, SCOTLAND, WALES AND N.I.) 2015 - % BY VOLUME 44
CHART 20 NEW SELF BUILD PLOTS AVAILABLE IN THE UK 2015 - % SHARE BY COUNTRY 45
CHART 21 SHARE COMPARISON OF HOUSEHOLDS AND SELF BUILD HOUSING BY COUNTRY 2015 - % BY VOLUME 46
CHART 22 SHARE OF NEW SELF BUILD HOUSING BY ENGLISH REGION - % BY VOLUME 2015 47
CHART 23 SELF-BUILD MARKET UK (ENGLAND, SCOTLAND, WALES AND NORTHERN IRELAND) COMPLETIONS 2015 - BY VALUE (£BN) 48
TABLE 24 SELF-BUILD REGIONAL COSTS COMPARISONS (LAND and DEVELOPMENT) ENGLAND and WALES 2014-15 - BY VALUE (£) 49
CHART 25 MIX OF TOTAL SELF-BUILD MARKET BY COST SECTOR (LAND, MATERIALS, LABOUR, PLANT/FEES) 2015 - % BY VALUE 50
TABLE 26 VALUE OF COST ELEMENTS IN THE SELF BUILD MARKET 2010-2020 - BY VALUE (£BN) 51
CHART 27 UK SELF BUILD MARKET KEY PRODUCT SECTORS 2015 - % BY VALUE (FOUNDATIONS, HEATING and INSULATION, JOINERY/PLUMBING/ELECTRICS, PLASTERING/DECORATING, ROOF, KITCHENS/BATHROOMS ETC.) 52
TABLE 28 UK HOUSING AFFORDABILITY FACTORS (SIMPLE AVERAGE PRICE, MORTGAGE ADVANCE AND INCOME) 2008 TO 2014 - BY VALUE (£) 53
TABLE 29 AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL LAND VALUES ENGLAND and WALES BY REGION 2014-15 - BY VALUE (£) 54
TABLE 30 SELF BUILD - MARKETING EVENTS AND EXHIBITIONS 2016 57
TABLE 31 PASSIVHAUS AND ENERPHIT PERFORMANCE TARGETS FOR NEW AND RETROFIT HOMES 61
TABLE 32 NEW GENERATION TARIFFS (FIT) FOR SOLAR PV, WIND AND HYDRO 2016 - (PENCE/KWH) 63
TABLE 33 TARIFFS FOR RENEWABLE HEAT INCENTIVE (RHI) SCHEME 2015-16 - (PENCE/KWH) 64
TABLE 34 SELF BUILD MARKET ESTIMATED INSTALLATION OF GSHP AND ASHP 2010-2016 - BY VALUE (£M) AND VOLUME (NUMBER OF UNITS INSTALLED) 65
TABLE 35 ESTIMATED INSTALLATION OF BIOMASS HEATING SYSTEMS IN THE UK SELF BUILD MARKET 2010 TO 2020 - BY VOLUME (NUMBER OF INSTALLATIONS) 66
CHART 36 DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS IN THE SELF-BUILD MARKET 68
CHART 37 DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS FOR MATERIALS INTO SELF BUILD MARKET - SHARE BY CHANNEL 2015 (BUILDERS MERCHANTS, SPECIALISTS, INTERNET/DIRECT, OTHERS) 69
CHART 38 MERCHANTS' MARKET SHARES 2014-15 71
CHART 39 ELECTRICAL WHOLESALE MARKET SHARES 2014-15 - % BY VALUE 72
CHART 40 DIY MULTIPLES MARKET SHARE 2015 73
CHART 41 DIY MULTIPLES SALES BY PRODUCT SECTOR 2015 - % BY VALUE 74
TABLE 42 COMPARISON OF MATERIALS SUPPLIED BY TYPICAL TIMBER FRAME PACKAGE AND TYPICAL SELF BUILDER 75
CHART 43 SHARE OF TIMBER FRAME MANUFACTURERS TO THE HOUSEBUILDING SECTORS - 2015 76
CHART 44 TIMBER FRAME SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES TO THE SELF BUILD SECTOR 2015 - % BY VALUE 77

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