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The Green Deal Market Report Update - March 2013 

  • March 2013
  • -
  • AMA Research
  • -
  • 107 pages

AMA Research are pleased to announce publication of: ‘The Green Deal Market Report Update – March 2013’, which was first published in July 2012. The report was completed in March 2013 and provides current information about the Green Deal following the launch in January 2013. The ‘soft launch’ of the Green Deal took place in November 2012 and officially came into force on 28th January 2013. The scheme was launched several months later than planned due to a delay in setting up the IT systems required to manage the process.

This report updates our review of the scheme, key players, providers, processes and core product areas for energy improvements. This update also includes our market size estimates for 2012 and forecasts to 2016, for the majority of product sectors covered under the scheme:

Insulation – wall, roof, floor.
Heating – boilers, heating controls, underfloor heating etc.
Lighting – energy efficient systems, fittings and controls.
Glazing – energy efficient glazing and external doors.
Microgeneration – Biomass boilers, Solar PV and
Solar thermal, Ground and Air Source heat pumps.
The Green Deal Finance Company (TGDFC) launched their finance package at the end of January 2013. TGDFC offers funding to every accredited provider and will offer the same rate of finance to the widest possible range of consumers.Areas of particular interest include:

Impact of Green Deal scheme on key product markets and future prospects.
Overview of Green Deal – process, providers and key stages of the scheme.
Overview of the finance package available e.g. interest rates, cashback scheme etc, including the different schemes available in Scotland, England and Wales.
List of Green Deal providers (as at November 2012).
Opportunities for manufacturers and installers created by the Green Deal and barriers to uptake of the Green Deal.
Overview of key product sectors covered under the Green Deal including market sizes, market trends, product mix and key suppliers.
Key market influences including expenditure on home improvements, mix of housing stock, energy supplies and Government incentives and initiatives.

Key Companies included:
Anglian, Armacell, Baxi Heating, Cellecta, Celotex, EcoLEDLighting, Ecotherm Insulation UK, Energy Conservation Solutions, Enfis, Hodgson & Hodgson, Holophane Europe, Ideal Stelrad Group, Jablite, Kingspan Insulation, Knauf Insulation, Latium, MARL International, Mayplas, Osram, Panel Systems, Philips PowellLED, Promat UK, Recticel, Rockwool, Safestyle, Saint Gobain Isover (SGI), Springvale EPS, Superglass Insulation, Thermal Economics, Uponor, URSA UK, Vaillant UK, Vita Cellular Foams, Warmup, Wavin UK, Worcester Bosch Group, Xtratherm, Zeta Group, Zumtobel.

Key areas covered in the report include:-

OVERVIEW OF THE GREEN DEAL

Definition of The Green Deal and background information.
Key product sectors covered under the Green Deal – Insulation, Heating, Lighting, Glazing, Microgeneration.
Green Deal process, finance options and key parties involved in the value chain.
Details of each stage of the process, e.g. providers, assessors, installers and energy companies.
Barriers and opportunities for manufacturers and suppliers.
The Green Deal Finance Company (TGDFC) – list of members as at Nov.2012.
Brief overview of building regulations and their impact on the key product areas covered in the Green Deal.

INSULATION MARKET


Overview of insulation market trends, current market size & forecasts 2007-2016.
Product mix by type of insulation, loft insulation market, Insulated render market size.
Solid Wall Insulation market size – new build/retro, external/internal, Cavity/Solid Wall installations by area.
Key application areas under the Green Deal including wall, floor and roof insulation.
Supply structure and company profiles of key suppliers of insulation products – shares etc.

HEATING AND LIGHTING PRODUCTS

Overview of heating market and energy efficient lighting products including market size and forecasts 2007-2016.
Market size, trends and future prospects of boilers, heating controls, underfloor heating, domestic ventilation and air conditioning 2007-16.
Market size, trends and future prospects of energy efficicent lighting products including lamps, luminaires and lighting controls 2007-2016.
Other issues covered include legislation, energy supplies and key suppliers of heating and lighting products.

DOOR AND WINDOWS MARKET

Windows and external door market size and trends for the residential market 2007-2016.
Market size by volume and value for residential windows, entrance doors and patios.
Key suppliers of glazing and doors in the domestic sector.

MICROGENERATION MARKET

Overview of microgeneration – key issues, drivers, barriers to growth etc.
Market size for air and ground source heat pumps, biomass boilers - market trends, product mix, forecasts to 2020.
Market size of Solar thermal heating and Solar PV systems installations. Installations by country and region.In 2011, the Government introduced the Energy Act which included the provision for a new ‘Green Deal’ and a new Energy Company Obligation (ECO) to replace the existing Carbon Emissions Reduction Target (CERT) and the Community Energy Saving Programme (CESP), both of which will expire in 2012.

The ‘soft launch’ of the Green Deal took place in November 2012 and officially came into force on 28th January 2013. The scheme was launched several months later than planned due to a delay in setting up the IT systems required to manage the process. The Green Deal Finance Company (TGDFC) launched their finance package at the end of January 2013. TGDFC will offer funding to every accredited provider and will offer the same rate of finance to the widest possible range of consumers.

As is well-known, The Green Deal enables private companies/organisations to offer energy-efficiency improvements to householders and businesses at no upfront cost. The key areas for energy improvements are insulation, heating, glazing, lighting and microgeneration measures. The list of Green Deal qualifying improvements include 45 measures of which 15 are more specifically targeted at the non-domestic sector.

The high average age of dwelling stock has major implications for energy-efficiency in the UK, with very poor standards of insulation and heating efficiency in many older properties. For example, around 7 to 8 million properties with solid walls are not insulated. The installation of energy efficiency measures under the Green Deal is largely dependent on educating homeowners, creating awareness and gaining their confidence, particularly in the early months.

As the report highlights, these product sectors are major markets. Building insulation is worth well over £1 billion with cavity and loft insulation significant sectors.. The glazing industry is now a mature sector but still worth over £2 billion and continuing to benefit from improving performance standards for glass. Improvements in boiler efficiency and wider installation of radiator thermostats are also helping to drive market growth and should be major beneficiaries of the Green Deal.

Essentially, the Green Deal will be funded by private capital and implemented by private sector participants. The key parties involved are the Green Deal Providers, Assessors, and Installers, and the energy companies collecting the payments. Initial estimates from DECC are that approximately 150,000 solid wall insulation schemes will be taken up through the Green Deal, along with the installation of around 830,000 cavity wall insulation measures, and 365,000 loft insulation measures

Table Of Contents

The Green Deal Market Report Update - March 2013 
1. INTRODUCTION 5
1.1 BACKGROUND 6
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 6
2. SUMMARY 8
3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 10
3.1 KEY INDICATORS 10
3.2 GDP 11
3.3 INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION 11
3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION AND SAVINGS RATIO 11
3.5 CONCLUSIONS 12
4. OVERVIEW OF THE GREEN DEAL 13
4.1 DEFINITION OF THE GREEN DEAL 13
4.2 KEY PRODUCT SECTORS 14
4.3 BACKGROUND INFORMATION 16
4.3.1 The Green Deal Consultation Document 18
4.4 KEY PARTIES 19
4.5 CURRENT SITUATION - JANUARY 2013 22
4.6 THE GREEN DEAL PROCESS 24
4.6.1 Providers 26
4.6.2 Assessors/Advisors 27
4.6.3 Installers 28
4.6.4 Payment Collection 29
5. KEY MARKET INFLUENCES 31
5.1 NEW NATIONAL HOUSEBUILDING 31
5.2 RMI 32
5.3 SELF BUILD 33
5.4 MIX OF HOUSEBUILDING STARTS AND COMPLETIONS 34
5.5 HOUSING STOCK - CURRENT AND FORECASTS UP TO 2050 35
5.6 THE BUILDING REGULATIONS 38
5.7 ENERGY SUPPLIES IN THE UK 39
5.7.1 Renewable Sources of Energy 41
5.8 GOVERNMENT INCENTIVES AND INITIATIVES 42
5.8.1 The Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS) 42
5.8.2 Solar PV 44
5.8.3 Carbon Emissions Reduction Target 44
5.8.4 Home Energy Saving Programme 45
6. INSULATION MARKET 47
6.1 MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 47
6.2 OVERVIEW OF INSULATION PRODUCTS 48
6.3 APPLICATIONS 52
6.3.1 Roof Insulation 52
6.3.2 Floor Insulation 53
6.3.3 Wall Insulation 53
6.4 SUPPLY STRUCTURE 57
7. HEATING 61
7.1 BOILERS 61
7.1.1 Definition 61
7.1.2 Market Size 61
7.1.3 Fuel Used 64
7.1.4 Product Mix 64
7.1.5 Biomass Boilers 65
7.1.6 Suppliers 67
7.2 HEATING CONTROLS 69
7.2.1 Market Size 69
7.2.2 Home Ownership 70
7.2.3 Legislative Changes 71
7.2.4 Product Mix 72
7.2.5 Suppliers 73
7.3 UNDER FLOOR HEATING 73
7.3.1 Definition 73
7.3.2 Market Size 74
7.3.3 Product Mix 75
7.3.4 UFH Controls 76
7.3.5 Suppliers 77
7.4 DOMESTIC VENTILATION AND AIR CONDITIONING 79
8. ENERGY EFFICIENT LIGHTING 80
8.1 MARKET DEFINITIONS 80
8.2 MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 82
8.3 DOMESTIC SECTOR 83
8.4 PRODUCT TRENDS 84
8.5 FUTURE PROSPECTS 86
9. DOOR AND WINDOWS MARKET 87
9.1 GLAZING MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 87
9.2 OVERALL MARKET FOR RESIDENTIAL ENTRANCE DOORS 89
9.3 REPLACEMENT MARKET FOR RESIDENTIAL ENTRANCE DOORS 91
9.4 SUPPLY 92
10. MICROGENERATION MARKET 93
10.1 HEAT PUMPS 93
10.1.1 Market / Product Definition 93
10.1.2 Types of Heat Pump 93
10.1.3 Market Size 95
10.1.4 Product Mix 96
10.1.5 Barriers to Growth 98
10.1.6 Suppliers 101
10.2 SOLAR THERMAL and PV 101
10.2.1 Solar PV 101
10.2.2 Solar Thermal 103
10.2.3 Solar PV Market Size 104
10.2.4 Supply and Distribution Structure 106TABLE 1 KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2008 TO 2016 (% ) 10
TABLE 2 LIST OF GREEN DEAL QUALIFYING IMPROVEMENTS JANUARY 2013 15
TABLE 3 EXAMPLE TERM LOAN INTEREST RATES FOR GREEN DEAL PLANS 23
CHART 4 GREEN DEAL SUMMARY VALUE CHAIN - 6 KEY STEPS 25
TABLE 5 HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 2006-2013 - GREAT BRITAIN (‘000 DWELLINGS) 31
CHART 6 DOMESTIC CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT GROWTH (NEW BUILD AND RMI) AND FORECASTS 2006 TO 2016 - BY VALUE (£ MILLION AT CURRENT PRICES) 32
CHART 7 UK SELF-BUILD MARKET - COMPLETIONS BY VOLUME 2005-2015 34
CHART 8 HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS IN ENGLAND - % MIX BY TYPE OF DWELLING 2001-2012 35
CHART 9 MIX OF STOCK OF DWELLINGS BY AGE 2009 - ENGLAND 36
TABLE 10 UK HOUSING STOCK PROFILE - COMPARISONS BY AGE PROFILE 2009 AND 2050 - VOLUME OF DWELLINGS (MILLIONS) 37
CHART 11 HOUSING STOCK NOT CONNECTED TO THE GAS GRID -GT. BRITAIN, 2009 38
CHART 12 FUEL INPUT FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY MILLION TONNES OF OIL EQUIVALENT (TOE) 1997-2009 40
CHART 13 POSSIBLE FUTURE ENERGY GENERATION MIX BY FUEL TYPE 2020 (GAS, NUCLEAR, RENEWABLES, COAL, OTHERS) 41
CHART 14 ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES (%) (WIND, BIOFUELS, HYDRO, PHOTOVOLTAICS ETC) 42
CHART 15 NUMBER OF MEASURES DELIVERED UNDER CERT BY TECHNOLOGY 45
TABLE 16 UK BUILDING INSULATION MARKET 2005 TO 2015 BY VALUE (£ MILLION MSP) 47
CHART 17 MIX OF INSULATION BY MATERIAL 2011 - % BY VALUE 49
TABLE 18 VOLUME OF LOFT INSULATION INSTALLATIONS UNDER CERT 2008/11 - (MILLION M2) 53
TABLE 19 FORECASTS FOR INSULATED RENDER SYSTEMS BY AREA INSTALLED (MILLION SQ M) 2012 -2016 55
TABLE 20 UK DOMESTIC SOLID WALL INSULATION MARKET MIX (‘000S OF INSTALLATIONS) - 2010 55
TABLE 21 VOLUME OF WALL INSULATION INSTALLATIONS BY AREA UNDER CERT 2008/11 - (MILLION M2) 56
CHART 22 UK RETROFIT MARKET BY APPLICATION BY AREA INSTALLED 2010 57
TABLE 23 UK MARKET SHARES BY VALUE 2011 58
TABLE 24 UK DOMESTIC BOILER MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2006-2015 62
CHART 25 BOILER SALES MIX BY TYPE OF FUEL (GAS-FIRED, OIL-FIRED, ELECTRIC, ETC.) - BY VOLUME 2011 64
CHART 26 UK DOMESTIC BOILER VOLUME SALES % SHARE BY TYPE 2011 65
TABLE 27 SALES OF BIOMASS BOILER INSTALLATIONS 2007-2010 (BY VOLUME AND VALUE), ALL SECTORS 66
CHART 28 BIOMASS BOILER AND PELLET STOVE INSTALLATIONS UK - 2008 67
TABLE 29 UK DOMESTIC BOILER SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARE 2011 67
TABLE 30 UK DOMESTIC HEATING CONTROLS MARKET (£M MSP) 2007-2016 69
CHART 31 HOME OWNERSHIP OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF DOMESTIC HEATING CONTROLS - % BY VOLUME 2011 71
CHART 32 HEATING CONTROLS PRODUCT MIX - THERMOSTATS, PROGRAMMERS, TRVS, MOTORISED VALVES, COMPENSATORS - BY VALUE 2011 72
TABLE 33 UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET (£M MSP) 2007-2016 74
CHART 34 UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET % PRODUCT MIX BY VALUE 2011 75
TABLE 35 UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARE 2011 78
TABLE 36 UK MARKET FOR ENERGY EFFICIENT LIGHTING (LAMPS and LUMINAIRES/CONTROLS) 2007 TO 2016 - BY VALUE (£M AT MSP) 82
TABLE 37 UK MARKET FOR RESIDENTIAL WINDOWS BY VOLUME AND VALUE AT TRADE PRICES 2007 -2016 88
TABLE 38 UK MARKET FOR RESIDENTIAL ENTRANCE DOORS BY VOLUME and VALUE AT TRADE PRICES 2007 -2016 90
CHART 39 ESTIMATED SALES OF GROUND SOURCE AND AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS BY VOLUME 2007 - 2011 95
CHART 40 HEAT PUMP MARKET - PRODUCT MIX BY VOLUME 2011 97
CHART 41 MARKET FORECASTS OF INSTALLATIONS OF GSHP'S AND ASHP'S 2010 -2020 BY VOLUME 100
CHART 42 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC INSTALLATIONS INTO RESIDENTIAL HOUSING, - ESTIMATED SHARE BY COUNTRY 2010 104
CHART 43 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC INSTALLATIONS INTO RESIDENTIAL HOUSING, 2010 - ESTIMATED SHARE BY ENGLISH REGION 105

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