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Kenya Retail Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 62 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Kenya's economic success is bound to extend into the medium term As real output grows bymore than 6% annually for every year until 2019, the households will enjoy a steady income growth andwill indulge in retail spending, which is set to grow by 94% annually during the period However, highincome inequality, poor infrastructure and low urbanisation will delay a more substantial expansion of theretail sectorThe Kenyan economy has performed well over the past decade, a trend we expect to continue - with strongeconomic growth continuing throughout our forecast period We are currently expecting real GDP growth in2015 to reach 60% and accelerate to 63% in 2016 The country's stable economic development has beensupported by the country's wealth of natural resources as well as a relatively stable political environmentThe effects of this growth have started to benefit many Kenyan households with a rising, urban middle classemerging and influencing the retail landscape This group, with their increasing levels of disposable income,will contribute significantly to overall spending on retail and we are forecasting an increase from USD31bnin 2015 to USD44bn by 2019

Table Of Contents

Kenya Retail Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Industry Forecast 13
Headline Retail Forecast 13
Table: Total Household Spending (Kenya 2012-2019) 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Kenya 2012-2019) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Kenya 2012-2019) 16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Kenya 2012-2019) 17
Retail Sector Forecast 19
Food, Drink and Tobacco 20
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Kenya 2012-2019) 21
Clothing and Footwear 21
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Kenya 2012-2019) 22
Household Goods 22
Table: Household Goods Spending (Kenya 2012-2019) 23
Personal Care 23
Table: Personal Care Spending (Kenya 2012-2019) 24
Household Numbers and Income Forecast 25
Table: Household Income Data (Kenya 2012-2019) 25
Table: Labour Market Data (Kenya 2012-2019) 28
Demographic Forecast 29
Table: Total Population (Kenya 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Babies (Kenya 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Young Children (Kenya 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Children (Kenya 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Kenya 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Young People (Kenya 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Kenya 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Kenya 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Young Adults (Kenya 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Kenya 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Urban (Kenya 2012-2019) 33
Macroeconomic Forecasts 34
Economic Analysis 34
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Kenya 2012-2019) 39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 40
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 40
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116 40
Kenya Industry Risk/Reward Index 41
Rewards 41
Risks 42
Market Overview 43
Competitive Landscape 46
Mass Grocery Retail 46
Department Stores 47
Glossary 49
Methodology 56
Industry Forecast Methodology 56
Sources 59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 59
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 62

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