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  5. > The Smartphones in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2015–2020

Total smartphone sales in Western Europe will remain relatively stable between 2015 and 2020, as the positive impact of 4G migration and dynamics that favour SIM-only contracts cancel each other out. This report provides forecasts and an explanation of key trends that affect smartphone sales in the region.

Table Of Contents

The Smartphones in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2015-2020

Table of contents


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5.Executive summary


6.Executive summary: Smartphone sales will benefit from 4G service take-up, but SIM-only plans will limit growth


7.Worldwide trends


8.Worldwide: Smartphone markets are saturating - operators and vendors must reassess their priorities


9.Worldwide: Growth in unit sales will depend on emerging markets and will come mostly from emerging Asia-Pacific


10.Worldwide: Operators are key sources of smartphones in most regions, but they lost some ground to other channels in 2015


11.Worldwide: Vendor financing is the end-point of gradual shifts in operator device strategies rather than an abrupt change


12.Worldwide: Vendor financing plans are most likely to succeed in countries where users are ready for SIM-only contracts


13.Worldwide: Operator bundles are in demand and play a role in
prepaid-to-postpaid migration


14.Worldwide: Apple leads the high-end market and Chinese vendors are capturing demand at the low end


15.Worldwide: iOS's market share of unit sales will remain stable at around 15% until 2020


16.Regional trends


17.Western Europe: Migration to 4G boosts smartphone sales, but replacement cycles are slow and SIM-only contracts grow


18.Western Europe: Key regional trends


19.Western Europe: Operators have lost ground to retailers in 2015, but they are still central to the smartphone supply chain


20.Western Europe: Apple users score higher NPS for mobile services, except in Spain where Android dominates


21.Country-level trends


22.France: Operators focus on minimising upfront payments for smartphones; Windows Phones do reasonably well


23.Germany: Smartphone sales will peak at 31 million units in 2018 as accumulated demand catches up


24.Spain: Android continues to dominate although iOS mildly improves market share during flagship launches


25.United Kingdom: Operators place iOS at the core of their portfolios and marketing efforts


26.Forecast methodology and assumptions


27.Forecast methodology and assumptions


28.About the authors and Analysys Mason


29.About the authors


30.About Analysys Mason


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List of figures


Figure 1: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Western Europe, 2012-2020


Figure 2: Mobile handset unit sales by type, and smartphones' share of unit sales, worldwide, 2012-2020


Figure 3: Smartphone unit sales by region, 2014 and 2020


Figure 4: Percentage of respondents who bought their most recent handset from an operator, 16 countries, and averages for 2014 and 2015


Figure 5: Device bundling and financing plans by type


Figure 6: Seven areas of consideration for operators when assessing the potential impact of SIM-only and vendor financing take-up


Figure 7: Choice of next mobile tariffandnbsp; type among those that plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff type, 6 European countries, US and South Korea


Figure 8: Choice of next mobile tariffandnbsp; type among those that plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff base, 8 countries in MEA and emerging APAC


Figure 9: Smartphone unit sales by manufacturer, worldwide, 2012-2020


Figure 10: Smartphone unit sales by operating system, worldwide, 2012-2020


Figure 11: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, Western Europe, 2012-2020


Figure 12: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Western Europe, 2012-2020


Figure 13: Key regional trends in handset markets, Western Europe


Figure 14: Most recent handset purchase by channel and country, 2015, and 2014 comparison for operators


Figure 15: Operators as a channel for smartphones and iPhones, and NPS differential of Apple users for mobile services, 2015


Figure 16: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, France, 2012-2020


Figure 17: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Germany, 2012-2020


Figure 18: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Spain, 2012-2020


Figure 19: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share in total handset sales, United Kingdom, 2012-2020


Figure 20: Main enablers and constraints for our smartphone forecasts

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