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Central Asia Power Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 80 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will rely on gas-fired power generation during our 10-yearforecast period, as a result of large domestic gas supplies coupled with few export commitments. Tajikistanand Kyrgyzstan, on the other hand, will suffer from power generation shortfalls, due to headwindspreventing diversification away from unreliable hydropower. The deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop -with China slowing down and Russia experiencing poor economic performance and commodity pricesfalling - underscores our muted view for the region this quarter.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- The devaluation of the Kazakh tenge puts pressure on the currencies of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. In particular, the Kyrgyz and Tajik economies are likely to suffer themost, as they rely heavily on remittances from Kazakhstan and a poorly performing Russia.

- The development of Kyrgyzstani and Tajikistani hydropower will remain a contentious issue in CentralAsia, as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan strongly oppose developments due to worries that the downstreamof the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers will suffer negative consequences.

Table Of Contents

Central Asia Power Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Central Asia Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan 2019-2024) 10
Kyrgyzstan 11
Power Mix To Remain Vulnerable To Supply Disruptions 11
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 14
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 15
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kyrgyzstan 2013-2018) 15
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kyrgyzstan 2019-2024) 16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kyrgyzstan 2013-2018) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kyrgyzstan 2019-2024) 17
Electricity Consumption 17
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kyrgyzstan 2013-2018) 18
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kyrgyzstan 2019-2024) 18
Transmission And Distribution 18
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Kyrgyzstan 2013-2018) 19
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Kyrgyzstan 2019-2024) 19
Tajikistan 19
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 20
Natural Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 23
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2013-2018) 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2019-2024) 24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2013-2018) 24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2019-2024) 25
Electricity Consumption 26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2013-2018) 26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2019-2024) 26
Transmission And Distribution 26
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2013-2018) 27
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2019-2024) 27
Turkmenistan 28
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 28
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 30
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2013-2018) 30
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2019-2024) 31
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2013-2018) 31
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2019-2024) 32
Electricity Consumption 32
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2013-2018) 33
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2019-2024) 33
Transmission and Distribution 34
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2013-2018) 34
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2019-2024) 34
Uzbekistan 35
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 35
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast 36
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 37
Non-Hydropower Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 38
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 41
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2013-2018) 41
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2019-2024) 42
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2013-2018) 42
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2019-2024) 43
Electricity Consumption 43
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2013-2018) 43
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2019-2024) 44
Transmission and Distribution 44
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2013-2018) 45
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2019-2024) 45
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 46
CEE Power Risk Reward Index 46
Industry Risk Reward Index 52
Central Asia - Risk/Reward Index 52
Market Overview 57
Regulation And Competition 57
Pricing 59
Central Asia - Projects Database 61
Competitive Landscape 63
Uzbekenergo 63
Barki Tojik 64
Turkmenenergo 64
Electric Power Plants 65
The National Electricity Grid of Kyrgyzstan 65
Regional Overview 66
CEE Power Regional Overview 66
Glossary 74
Table: Glossary Of Terms 74
Methodology 75
Methodology And Sources 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Sources 78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 78
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 80

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