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France Retail Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 70 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The French economy will post modest real growth throughout the forecast period, but willunderperform in the broader EU context. Modest domestic consumption and business investment will notsustain strong growth of either employment or household incomes. As a result, retailers operating in thissteady state market will look into consolidation and optimisation, rather than organic growth opportunities.After remaining flat for three consecutive years, France's real output will begin expanding slowly in 2015.We forecast a modest 1.3% inflation-adjusted GDP growth rate, a mediocre expansion in the context ofrecovering euro zone. Importantly for retailers, unemployment rate remains high in France hovering at anaverage of 10.7% in 2015. The figure has recorded some improvement this year, however, a moresubstantial breakthrough is unlikely to take place before the end of 2019 (a projection of 9.4%).

FrançoisHollande, the French president, has promised not to run for re-election in 2017 if unemployment rate doesnot decline under his administration, however, the effect of current proposals is questionable. Thegovernment offered tax breaks for businesses in exchange for creating jobs, yet this does not solve cyclicaland structural problems in the labour market. Job creation is lagging and highly-qualified universitygraduates remain unemployed basing their consumption on incomes from social welfare. Moreover, highunemployment prevents rise of wages and, as a result, we expect the growth of household incomes to besluggish, at an annual average growth rate of 2.8% in euro terms.

Table Of Contents

France Retail Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Retail SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Industry Forecast 13
Headline Retail Forecast 13
Table: Total Household Spending (France 2012-2019) 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (France 2012-2019) 15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (France 2012-2019) 16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (France 2012-2019) 17
Retail Sector Forecast 19
Food, Drink And Tobacco 20
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (France 2012-2019) 20
Clothing And Footwear 21
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (France 2012-2019) 21
Household Goods 22
Table: Household Goods Spending (France 2012-2019) 22
Table: Consumer Electronics Spending (France 2012-2019) 23
Personal Care 24
Table: Personal Care Spending (France 2012-2019) 25
Household Numbers and Income Forecast 26
Table: Household Income Data (France 2012-2019) 27
Table: Labour Market Data (France 2012-2019) 30
Demographic Forecast 31
Table: Total Population (France 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Babies (France 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Young Children (France 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Children (France 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (France 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Young People (France 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (France 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: 21yrs + (France 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: Young Adults (France 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: Middle Aged (France 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: Urban (France 2012-2019) 36
Macroeconomic Forecasts 37
Economic Analysis 37
Table: GDP By Expenditure (France 2012-2019) 42
Industry Risk/Reward Index 44
Developed States Risk/Reward Index 44
Table: Developed States Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116 44
France - Risk/Reward Index 45
Rewards 45
Risks 46
Market Overview 48
Competitive Landscape 54
Department Stores 54
Mass Grocery Retail And Integrated Retailers 54
Homeware And DIY 55
Personal Grooming 56
Fashion 56
Glossary 57
Methodology 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Sources 67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 67
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 68
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 70

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