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New Zealand Power Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 49 pages

BMI View: The announcement that New Zealand could face energy security risks if new capacity is not installed before 2019 supports our view that new gas-fired and wind power capacity will be developed over the coming years. Uncertainty over the potential retirement of the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter over the coming five years is the main risk to investing in new power plants in the market, as a drop in power demand would strand new power-generating capacity.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

-Over the coming decade, changes in New Zealand's power-generating capacity and generation will depend on the need to address potential imbalances between demand and supply following the retirement of aging thermal plants and uncertainty over the country's future industrial load. These changes will be underpinned by the government commitment to reducing the role of CO2-emitting power sources in its electricity mix and increase that of renewable energy technologies.

-Investment in new gas-fired power capacity is likely to be required in New Zealand over the coming three years as the country's power sector faces the prospect of insufficient supply in 2019. This will be a risk during periods of peak demand, due to the planned retirement of 1,070MW of thermal capacity between 2015 and 2018.

Table Of Contents

New Zealand Power Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (New Zealand 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
New Zealand Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (New Zealand 2013-2018) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (New Zealand 2019-2024) 10
Table: New Zealand Snapshot: Power Sector 10
New Zealand Power Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2013-2018) 17
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2019-2024) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2013-2018) 19
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2019-2024) 19
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2013-2018) 21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2019-2024) 21
Transmission And Distribution 21
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2013-2018) 22
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2019-2024) 22
Industry Risk Reward Index 23
Asia Power Risk/Reward Index 23
New Zealand Power Risk/Reward Index 28
Market Overview 30
Key Policies And Market Structure 30
Regulation And Competition 30
New Zealand Power Projects Database 31
Competitive Landscape 34
Regional Overview 37
Asia Power Regional Overview 37
Glossary 43
Table: Glossary Of Terms 43
Methodology 44
Methodology And Sources 44
Industry Forecast Methodology 44
Sources 47
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 47
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 48
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 49

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