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South Africa Food and Drink Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 97 pages

BMI View: South Africa's food and drink industry will be under pressure in 2016, with a weaker currency and unfavourable weather conditions for agricultural production pushing up food prices. Non essential consumption will start to fall over the same period due to decreasing consumer confidence. However, we expect business confidence to remain optimistic for the long term. An increase in investment in the drinks industry and MGR sector will boost industry growth, reflected in our five year forecast period to 2019.

Headline Industry Data

-2015 per capita food consumption (local currency) = +6.7%; five-year forecast compound annual growth (CAGR) to 2019 = +7.0%.

- Alcoholic drinks value (ZAR) sales growth for 2015: 8.2%; CAGR 2014 to 2019: +10.1%.

-2015 soft drinks volume sales = +4.2%; forecast compound annual growth to 2019 = +4.0%.

-2015 mass grocery retail sales (local currency) = +7.8%; forecast compound annual growth to 2019 = +7.9%.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Food and Drink Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Food And Drink 8
Industry Forecast 12
Consumer Outlook 12
Food 13
Food Consumption 13
Latest Updates 13
Structural Trends 14
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019) 15
Confectionery 15
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019) 16
Meat 16
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (South Africa 2014-2019) 17
Other Prepared Foods 17
Table: Jams and Jellies Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (South Africa 2014-2019) 18
Oils and Fats 18
Table: Oils and Fats Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019) 18
Dairy 19
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019) 20
Drink 21
Alcoholic Drinks 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019) 23
Soft Drinks 23
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production and Trade (South Africa 2014-2019) 25
Hot Drinks 25
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019) 27
Mass Grocery Retail 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019) 30
Macroeconomic Forecast 31
Economic Analysis 31
Table: Economic Activity (South Africa 2010-2019) 33
Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index 34
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 34
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q415 Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index 35
South Africa Risk/Reward Index 38
Market Overview 39
Food 39
Agriculture 39
Organics 40
Food Production 40
Drink 41
Alcoholic Drinks 41
Soft Drinks 42
Hot Drinks 43
Mass Grocery Retail 43
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (South Africa 2006-2009) 45
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (South Africa 2006-2015) 45
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (South Africa 2006-2015) 45
Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format - 2011 45
Competitive Landscape 46
Table: Key Players In South Africa's Food Sector 46
Table: Key Players In South Africa's Drink Sector 47
Table: Key Players In South Africa's Mass Grocery Retail Industry 48
Company Profile 50
Distell 50
Illovo Sugar 52
Pick n Pay 54
Pioneer Foods 56
Shoprite Group 58
Tiger Brands 60
Woolworths 62
Global Industry Overview 64
Table: Selected Markets - Selected Industry and Macroeconomic Indicators - Historical and Forecast 71
Table: Australia, Uk And Usa Estimated Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Scores - Food Retail Industry 80
Table: UAE Food Retail Sales By Format - Historical and Forecast 81
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q315 Roundup 84
Demographic Forecast 86
Demographic Outlook 86
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 87
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 87
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 88
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 88
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 89
Glossary 91
Food and Drink 91
Mass Grocery Retail 91
Methodology 93
Industry Forecast Methodology 93
Sector-Specific Methodology 94
Sources 94
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 95
Table: Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators 96
Table: Weighting 97

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