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East Timor Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 63 pages

BMI View: Timor-Leste is set to experience declining crude oil and natural gas production over the next decade as its two producing fields remain in decline. Additionally, the small domestic market size makes it uneconomical to build a refinery in the country, which will result in rising refined fuels imports over the coming years. The main trends and developments we highlight in the Timor-Leste oil and gas sector are: -We maintain our exploration outlook this quarter, with limited upside risk to exploration given limited activities in the Timor-Leste Exclusive Area (TLEA) and the current stand-off between Australia and Timor-Leste regarding the territorial arrangements in the area.

-Timor-Leste's crude oil production will remain on a gradual decline through our forecast period to 2024. A slowdown in exploration in the Joint Petroleum Development Area (JPDA) and territorial dispute over the highly prospective Greater Sunrise fields weighs on the country's long-term oil production potential.

-We estimate that Timor-Leste's natural gas production peaked in 2014 and forecast it to fall 1.0% in 2015 to 5.1bcm. Over the 2015-2024 period, we expect the natural decline of the Bayu-Undan field to pull down gas production to 4.0bcm by 2024.

-We forecast refined products consumption to grow over the next decade on the back of a fast-growing economy - rising from 1,470b/d in 2014 to 2,930b/d in 2024.

-Crude oil net exports will decline throughout our forecast period, in line with production declines. We forecast Timor-Leste's refined fuels imports to remain on an uptrend over the next decade to meet growing domestic demand for gasoline and diesel from the power and the autos sectors.

-As natural gas production declines in the Bayu-Undan field, Timor-Leste's gas exports will continue falling over the next decade.

Table Of Contents

East Timor Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Timor-Leste 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Upstream Exploration 9
Latest Updates 9
Structural Trends 9
Upstream Projects 11
Table: Timor-Leste Major Upstream Projects 11
Upstream Production - Oil 12
Latest Updates 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Exploration Activities In The JPDA 14
Table: Oil Production (Timor-Leste 2013-2018) 15
Table: Oil Production (Timor-Leste 2019-2024) 15
Upstream Production - Gas 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Gas Production (Timor-Leste 2013-2018) 18
Table: Gas Production (Timor-Leste 2019-2024) 18
Refined Fuels Consumption 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Timor-Leste 2013-2018) 20
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Timor-Leste 2019-2024) 20
Trade - Oil 21
Crude Oil Trade Forecast 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2013-2019) 23
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2019-2024) 23
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Gas Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2013-2018) 26
Table: Gas Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2019-2024) 27
Industry Risk/Reward Index 28
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 29
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 31
Timor-Leste - Risk/Reward Index 34
Upstream Index 34
Downstream Index 34
Market Overview 36
Timor-Leste Energy Market Overview 36
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 37
Competitive Landscape 39
Company Profile 40
ConocoPhillips 40
Eni 42
Other Summaries 44
Regional Overview 45
Asia - Weak Oil Prices Will Hit Region's Long-Term OandG Production 45
Glossary 56
Table: Glossary Of Terms 56
Methodology 58
Industry Forecast Methodology 58
Source 60
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 60
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 62
Table: Weighting 63

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