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Yemen Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 68 pages

BMI View: Yemen's security environment remains extremely fragile and the impact on the oil and gas industry has been severe. As of December 2015, Yemen's oil and gas industry remains largely at a standstill, as the majority major oil and gas companies and facilities have suspended their operations due to security concerns. We expect above ground risks to continue to impact near-term production and challenge longer term efforts to boost investment.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

-As the exploration activities in Yemen remain at a standstill due to precarious security conditions, we maintain our previous forecasts and expect oil and gas reserves to continue declining at a modest pace across our forecast period to 2024. Between 2015 and 2024 oil reserves are set to shrink by 12% and reach 2,644b/d, while the gas reserves are expected to record a smaller contraction of 1.5% and stand at 474bcm.

-While we forecast oil production to decline from an estimated 122,500b/d in 2015 to 96,040b/d by 2024, we note a significant downside risk to these projections due to persistent conflict within the country. - The country's gas sector came to halt due to the closure of Yemen LNG facility in April. The country's 2015 gas output reached just 0.8bcm (down from 7.8bcm in 2014) and was exclusively directed to satisfy domestic needs. Until the security situation stabilises, we do not see notable increases in gas production, consumption or exports.

Table Of Contents

Yemen Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Yemen 2014-2024) 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 12
Table: Key Upstream Projects 12
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (Yemen 2013-2018) 17
Table: Oil Production (Yemen 2019-2024) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Gas Production (Yemen 2013-2018) 19
Table: Gas Production (Yemen 2019-2024) 20
Refining 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Yemen 2013-2018) 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Yemen 2019-2024) 23
Refined Fuels Consumption 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Yemen 2013-2018) 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Yemen 2019-2024) 26
Gas Consumption 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Gas Consumption (Yemen 2013-2018) 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Yemen 2019-2024) 28
Trade - Oil 29
Crude Oil Trade 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Yemen 2013-2019) 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Yemen 2019-2024) 31
Fuels Trade 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Yemen 2013-2018) 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Yemen 2019-2024) 33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Yemen 2013-2018) 36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Yemen 2019-2024) 37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 38
Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 38
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI) 38
Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 39
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 39
Limited Opportunities Downstream 41
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 41
Yemen - Risk/Reward Index 43
Market Overview 45
Yemen Energy Market Overview 45
Regulatory Structure 45
Fiscal Regime 46
Table: Yemen - Upstream Tax Regime 46
Licensing Regime 46
Table: Yemen - Contracts and Licensing Regime 46
Licensing Rounds 46
Table: Yemen's 2013 Acreage Offer 47
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 48
Oil Refineries 48
Table: Oil Refineries In Yemen 48
Oil Pipelines 49
Oil Terminal 49
LNG Terminal 49
Regional Overview 51
Middle East Oil and Gas Regional Overview 51
Oil Production: Expansion Projects March On 51
Oil Consumption: Subsidies Hide Weaker Price Impact, But Push Demand Growth 53
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market 55
Gas Production: In Needed Of More Gas 56
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand 58
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade 59
Glossary 61
Table: Glossary Of Terms 61
Methodology 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Source 65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 65
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 67
Table: Weighting 68

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