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Spain Retail Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 66 pages

BMI View: For the first time in five years of recession, Spain's economy recorded positive growth in 2014,rising by 1.4%. We are expecting growth in 2015 to reach 2.7%. This return to positive growth is helping toease the high levels of unemployment which in turn is stabilising the retail market. Households aregradually becoming more confident owing to rising disposable incomes, and this will help to boost realsales in the country.Spain has continued to recover from its financial crisis and has made notable improvements over 2015. RealGDP is expected to reach 2.7%, which is above the EU average. 2015 is also expected to be the first yearsince the financial crisis began in 2008 when real GDP has expanded for two consecutive years.

We believethat this reflects the current momentum within the economy. The increasing levels of economic activity areplaying an important role in bringing down the stubbornly high rates of unemployment. Spain currently hasthe second highest unemployment rate within the EU, which is forecast to drop only slightly to 21.3% in2016. Owing to gradual improvements in the business environment, firms are more able to hire workers tosupport their expansion and this will mean that the jobless rate will continue to fall lower. We expect theunemployment rate to reach 18.0% by 2019 and this should provide an important boost the growth ofhousehold income and total retail sales.

Table Of Contents

Spain Retail Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Retail SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Industry Forecast 13
Headline Retail Forecast 13
Table: Total Household Spending (Spain 2012-2019) 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Spain 2012-2019) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Spain 2012-2019) 15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Spain 2012-2019) 16
Retail Sector Forecast 19
Food, Drink and Tobacco 19
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Spain 2012-2019) 20
Clothing and Footwear 21
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Spain 2012-2019) 21
Household Goods 22
Table: Household Goods Spending (Spain 2012-2019) 22
Table: Consumer Electronics Spending (Spain 2012-2019) 23
Personal Care 23
Table: Personal Care Spending (Spain 2012-2019) 24
Household Numbers and Income Forecast 25
Table: Household Income Data (Spain 2012-2019) 25
Table: Labour Market Data (Spain 2012-2019) 28
Demographic Forecast 29
Table: Total Population (Spain 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Babies (Spain 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Young Children (Spain 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Children (Spain 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Spain 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Young People (Spain 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Spain 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Spain 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Young Adults (Spain 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Spain 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Urban (Spain 2012-2019) 34
Macroeconomic Forecasts 35
Economic Analysis 35
Table: Spain - Economic Dashboard 41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 43
Developed States Risk/Reward Index 43
Table: Developed States Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116 43
Spain - Risk/Reward Index 44
Rewards 44
Risks 45
Market Overview 47
Competitive Landscape 50
Department Stores 50
Mass Grocery Retail 50
Fashion 52
Pharmacies 52
Glossary 53
Methodology 60
Industry Forecast Methodology 60
Sources 63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 63
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 66

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