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United Kingdom Retail Report Q2 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 57 pages

BMI View: While the outlook for the UK economy is stronger than the rest of the eurozone, withconsumption benefitting from lower fuel prices, two major developments will curb the outlook for retailersin 2016. We believe that interest rates will begin to rise in 2016, and this will have a disproportionatelylarge impact on UK consumers, due to the high cost of housing in the country, resulting in householdspotentially diverting earnings away from discretionary spending in preparation for higher mortgageservicing costs. Secondly, retailers will be faced by increased costs in the form of the government's nationalliving wage, which is set to come into force from April 2016. Some of this will be mitigated by the rise inconsumption from a wage increase but these risks will weigh on retailers in the coming year.

Key Views & Developments

- Total household spending is set to rise from GBP1,198bn (USD1,887bn) in 2016 to GBP1,393bn(USD2,283bn) in 2020.

- Wage growth slowed across Q415, which means that the BoE is unlikely to hike in Q116. However, wethink earnings growth will accelerate again in early 2016 unless labour market trends shift significantly.Headline inflation also remains exceptionally low and is unlikely to make a significant comeback in2016.

- Retailers will be faced by increased costs in the form of the government's national living wage, which isset to come into force from April 2016. A number of retailers are looking to implement the wage risesearly, but the consensus seems to be that it will have a significant impact on retailers costs over themedium term.

Table Of Contents

United Kingdom Retail Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Headline Retail Forecast 11
Table: Total Household Spending (United Kingdom 2013-2020) 12
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (United Kingdom 2013-2020) 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (United Kingdom 2012-2019) 13
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (United Kingdom 2013-2020) 15
Retail Sector Forecast 17
Food, Drink and Tobacco 18
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (United Kingdom 2013-2020) 18
Clothing and Footwear 19
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (United Kingdom 2013-2020) 20
Household Goods 20
Table: Household Goods Spending (United Kingdom 2013-2020) 21
Personal Care 22
Table: Personal Care Spending (United Kingdom 2013-2020) 22
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 23
Table: Household Income Data (United Kingdom 2013-2020) 24
Table: Labour Market Data (United Kingdom 2013-2020) 26
Demographic Forecast 27
Table: Total Population (United Kingdom 2013-2020) 28
Table: Population: Babies (United Kingdom 2013-2020) 28
Table: Population: Young Children (United Kingdom 2013-2020) 29
Table: Population: Children (United Kingdom 2012-2019) 29
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (United Kingdom 2012-2019) 29
Table: Population: Young People (United Kingdom 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (United Kingdom 2013-2020) 30
Table: Population: 21yrs + (United Kingdom 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Young Adults (United Kingdom 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Middle Aged (United Kingdom 2012-2019) 31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 32
Developed States Risk/Reward Index 32
Table: Developed States Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q216 32
United Kingdom Risk/Reward Index 34
Rewards 34
Risks 35
Market Overview 36
Competitive Landscape 40
Table: Clothing and Footwear 40
Table: Household Goods, Home Improvement, Homeware 41
Table: Electronics 41
Table: Department Stores 42
Table: E-Commerce, Online-Only 42
Table: Pharmacies, Health and Beauty 43
Glossary 44
Methodology 51
Industry Forecast Methodology 51
Sources 54
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 54
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 55
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 57

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