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United States Retail Report Q2 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 68 pages

BMI View: The US retail sector is continuing its revival, as the economic recovery is centred aroundconsumption. Lower oil prices, low inflation, tightening labour market and low interest rates are all fuellinghousehold spending. Growth is coming from online sales in particular, as e-commerce continues itsexplosive trajectory. While interest rates are set to rise, this will be a gradual process. We therefore expectthese trends to continue to play out, with opportunities across the wide retail sector spectrum.

Key Views And Developments

- We expect household consumption to continue to improve, thanks to a stronger labour market(unemployment stands at 5.0%, its lowest rate since prior to the 2008-2009 recession), and higher wages.This will be further supported by extremely low inflation (the latest figure came in at 0.2% y-o-y for themonth of October and has remained below the 2.0% target since April 2012), which will help support realpurchasing power.

- Greater consumer demand for convenience will drive the expansion of smaller format stores and onlinegrocery retail in the US over our forecast period to 2019. Combined with intensifying competition in thesector, it will create challenges for mainstream retailers such as Walmart and put pressure on margins.

Table Of Contents

United States Retail Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Headline Retail Forecast 11
Table: Total Household Spending (United States 2013-2020) 12
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (United States 2013-2020) 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (United States 2013-2020) 14
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (United States 2013-2020) 16
Retail Sector Forecast 18
Food, Drink and Tobacco 19
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (United States 2013-2020) 20
Clothing and Footwear 21
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (United States 2013-2020) 21
Household Goods 22
Table: Household Goods Spending (United States 2013-2020) 22
Table: Consumer Electronics Spending (United States 2013-2020) 24
Table: Toys, Sports, Gardens and Pets Spending (United States 2013-2020) 24
Personal Care 25
Table: Personal Care Spending (United States 2013-2020) 25
Household Numbers and Income Forecast 26
Table: Household Income Data (United States 2013-2020) 28
Table: Labour Market Data (United States 2013-2020) 30
Demographic Forecast 31
Table: Total Population (United States 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Babies (United States 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Young Children (United States 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Children (United States 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (United States 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Young People (United States 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (United States 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: 21yrs + (United States 2013-2020) 36
Table: Population: Young Adults (United States 2013-2020) 36
Table: Population: Middle Aged (United States 2013-2020) 37
Table: Population: Urban (United States 2013-2020) 37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 38
Developed States Risk/Reward Index 38
Table: Developed States Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q216 38
Industry Risk Reward Index 40
Rewards 40
Risks 41
Market Overview 43
Retail Formats 43
Integrated Retailers 44
Mass Grocery Retailers 45
Household Retailers 46
Fashion 46
Consumer Electronics 46
Pharmacies 47
e-Commerce 48
Competitive Landscape 50
Clothing and Footwear 50
Table: Major Clothing And Footwear Retailers 50
Household Goods 51
Table: Major Household Goods Retailers 51
Electronics 51
Table: Major Electronics Retailers 51
Department Stores 52
Table: Major Department Stores Retailers 52
E-commerce 53
Table: Major E-commerce Retailers 53
Pharmacies 54
Table: Major Pharmacies Retailers 54
Glossary 55
Methodology 62
Industry Forecast Methodology 62
Sources 65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 65
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 68

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