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Belgium Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 25 pages

Core Views

Belgium’s economic recovery is beginning to gain momentum. Growthin 2016 will be stronger than the previous year and in line with thebroader eurozone.Government contribution’s to real GDP growth will be negligible inthe coming years, as the Belgian authorities remain committed toreducing its debt-to-GDP ratio.A weaker euro combined with quickening growth and domesticdemand in the eurozone will provide a moderate boost to Belgium’sexporters over the forecast period.Belgium’s extremely high national debt continues to leave it exposedto a potential deterioration in economic growth exasperating debtservicing pressure and also the possibility of yields increasing dueto eurozone instability.Major Forecast ChangesNo major forecast changes.

Table Of Contents

Belgium Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Eurozone Demand Main Driver Of Growth8
GDP growth in Belgium will be subdued in the years ahead This will mainly be driven by higher eurozone demand and increasing
household spending, while government reforms of the tax system will positively impact employment in the coming years
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECAST10
Regional Economic Outlook 10
ECB: Underwhelming, But Still Substantial Easing10
The European Central Bank (ECB)'s monetary policy easing on December 3 disappointed markets in terms of its depth and breadth
However, strengthening economic and inflation conditions in the eurozone suggest that the ECB may be better off holding fire, and in
our view, the easing is still fairly significant despite disappointment on the headline figures We continue to forecast a weaker euro in
Chapter 2: Political Outlook 15
SWOT Analysis 15
BMI Political Risk Index 15
Domestic Politics 16
Regional Tensions To Remain Subdued16
Although Belgium is divided by language and wealth, regional tensions are unlikely to increase over the coming years, as Wallonia's
economic position improves and the call for Flemish independence wanes On the contrary, political and social tensions are more likely
to emerge between native Belgians and the country's large immigrant community
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW16
Long-Term Political Outlook 18
Unity To Prevail18
Flemish separatism, although less significant than in previous years, will remain a political risk facing Belgium over the coming decade,
spurred by economic as well as cultural and linguistic divisions An outright dissolution of the state is unlikely, given the still sizeable
proportion of the population that supports union Moreover, threats of terrorism will be an even more prominent issue in Belgium than in
many other European countries
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook 21
Global Macro Outlook 21
Unfinished Business In 201621
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS21
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %22
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 22
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %23
TABLE: BELGIUM - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS25

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