1. Market Research
  2. > Tourism and Leisure Market Trends
  3. > Bermuda Country Risk Report 2015

Bermuda Country Risk Report 2015

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 27 pages

Core Views

Bermuda's prolonged recession continued into 2014, and we nowexpect this economic contraction to continue over the coming years.We expect that an international crackdown on offshore financialcentres such as Bermuda will lead to a decline in financial servicesactivity, one of the key contributors to the island's economy. Althoughtourism will rise, it will not be enough to offset tempered insuranceactivities.Bermuda's current account will remain in surplus over the courseof our 10-year forecast period, though the surplus will decreaseto 10.5% of GDP by 2024, down from 17.4% in 2014, in line withour projections for slowing exports of tourism services and seculardecline in off-shore finance.

Despite poor growth prospects, Bermuda will remain politically stableover the next 10 years owing to the island's strong legal frameworkand formalised separation of powers. Largely, this is down to Bermudabeing an Overseas Territory of the United Kingdom, meaningthat Bermuda's courts and legal system are based on the Britishsystem, and will continue to enforce property and contractual rightseffectively.Major Forecast ChangesWe have revised down our real GDP growth forecasts and nowexpect an average real GDP contraction of 1.5% through the nextten years on the back of financial services weakness.Despite rhetoric to the contrary, we do not believe that the authoritieswill be able to post a primary budget surplus over the next decade,and we forecast the fiscal deficit to average 4.6% for the durationof our forecast period. However, the government will continue toimplement additional austerity measures in order to temper a rapidrise in debt.

Table Of Contents

Bermuda Country Risk Report 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Domestic Politics 8
Ruling Party's Strong Mandate Will Continue8
Bermuda's ruling party will enjoy a strong mandate through the remainder of its term, in part due to a divided opposition This will see
the implementation of additional fiscal austerity measures and financial sector reform
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
A Stable Future9
Bermuda will remain politically stable over the coming decade, and continue to benefit from a strong, independent judiciary based
on the British legal system Although party politics will remain largely divided along ethnic lines, this will not escalate into potentially
destabilising political violence
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 11
SWOT Analysis 11
BMI Economic Risk Index 11
Economic Growth Outlook 12
Weakening Financial Sector To Drive Real GDP Contraction12
Bermudan real GDP will continue to contract in 2015, as an ongoing international crackdown on offshore financial centres weighs on the
island's financial intermediation and business hosting sectors
TABLE: GDP BY EXPENDITURE12
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 13
TABLE: 10-YEAR GDP FORECASTS13
Fiscal And Public Debt Outlook 14
Ongoing Recession Will Temper Fiscal Consolidation14
The Bermudan government's attempts to reduce the country's fiscal deficit will be tempered by the country's prolonged recession, which
will weigh on revenue expansion
TABLE: DEBT LOAD COMPARATIVELY MANAGEABLE14
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS15
Structural Fiscal Position 16
Long-Term Economic Outlook 17
Recovery Ahead, But Only A Modest One17
Bermuda's economy will continue to contract in the coming years as weakness in the financial services industry erodes private
consumption and investment on the island Attempts to diversify the economy into the tourism industry will have modest success,
however that sector will not be able to supplant financial services output
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS17
Chapter 3: Demographic Outlook 21
Demographic Outlook 2015 21
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP (BERMUDA 1990-2025)22
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP % (BERMUDA 1990-2025)22
TABLE: POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS (BERMUDA 2000-2025)23
TABLE: KEY POPULATION RATIOS (BERMUDA 1990-2025)23
TABLE: URBAN/RURAL POPULATION and LIFE EXPECTANCY (BERMUDA 1990-2025) 23
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook 25
Global Macro Outlook 25
Unfinished Business In 201625
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS25
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %26
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 26
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %27

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Global Tourism Demand and Flow, 2011 - 2020: Domestic and International Trips Analytics

Global Tourism Demand and Flow, 2011 - 2020: Domestic and International Trips Analytics

  • $ 14995
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by Canadean Ltd

Summary Tourism Demand (Factors that influence time and money spent on tourism. Typical factors include the number of holiday days available to an employee in their country and mean household income) and ...

Global Travel Intermediaries Business, 2011 to 2020

Global Travel Intermediaries Business, 2011 to 2020

  • $ 14995
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by Canadean Ltd

Summary Travel Intermediaries (part of a business that assists in selling travel products and services to customers, which may include airline tickets, car rentals, hotels, railway tickets, and package ...

Global Tourism Spend Analytics to 2020: Accommodation, Entertainment and Sightseeing, Foodservice, Retail, Transportation, Travel Intermediation, Others

Global Tourism Spend Analytics to 2020: Accommodation, Entertainment and Sightseeing, Foodservice, Retail, Transportation, Travel Intermediation, Others

  • $ 14995
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by Canadean Ltd

Summary Tourism Spend (Expenditure under taken on Travel and Tourism related commodities by a tourist within a country. This expenditure is categorized in to accommodation, sightseeing and entertainment, ...

Enhanced Monthly Statistics

November 2016 $ 9600

ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.