1. Market Research
  2. > Tourism and Leisure
  3. > Leisure
  4. > Sport Market Trends
  5. > Brazil Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Brazil Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 43 pages

Core Views

Over the long term, Brazil will experience only modest levels ofgrowth as structural headwinds limit any quick economic solutionsto challenges stemming from falling global commodity prices. Growthwill only return following two years of recession in 2015 and 2016.The Banco Central do Brasil will back down from its promise tocut rates in 2016 and will instead hike the benchmark Selic rate by150 basis points (bps) in 2016. Inflation has continued to acceleratedespite the bank's attempts to stymie price increases throughmore than 700bps of rate hikes in the past two years. Capital hascontinued to flow out of Brazil, putting depreciatory pressure on thereal and feeding through to rising import costs.

The widespread public protests that took place in June 2013 markeda turning point for the Brazilian electorate. Public unrest will flare upintermittently until significant progress on promised reforms, includinghigher-quality public services and greater government transparency,begins to take shape. In line with this view, an ongoing corruptionscandal at national oil company Petrobras will continue to drivepublic protests in the coming months.Major Forecast ChangesWe have downgraded our 2015 real GDP growth estimate to -3.1%,from -2.7% previously. Significant labour market deterioration underpinsthis forecast change, as private consumption will be moresubdued than we previously anticipated.We now expect Brazil's recession to deepen in 2016, and haverevised our real GDP contraction forecast in 2016 to 3.4%.We have revised up out benchmark Selic rate forecast for 2016.We now expect the Banco Central do Brasil to hike rates to 15.75%from 14.25%. This is a revision from our previous expectation forthe bank to begin a rate-cutting cycle in 2016 to spur growth.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Recession Will Deepen In 20168
Brazil's recession will deepen in 2016 as the labour market experiences significant deterioration as corporate bankruptcies rise
Household spending will fall significantly as the unemployment rate increases, boosting the country's default rate and sending real
wages lower
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 10
TABLE: 10-YEAR GDP FORECASTS10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION FORECASTS10
TABLE: NET EXPORT FORECASTS10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 11
Fiscal Deficit To Deteriorate Amid Deepening Recession11
Given our view that the economic outlook for Brazil will deteriorate in 2016 while the ability to rein in spending will be hampered by
political dynamics, we have downwardly adjusted our fiscal forecasts
Structural Fiscal Position 12
External Trade And Investment Outlook 14
Exports Set For Significant Contraction14
Brazil's current account deficit will expand sharply in 2016 as low commodity prices and a weak manufacturing sector weigh on export
growth
Outlook On External Position 15
TABLE: FINANCIAL ACCOUNT INDICATORS16
Monetary Policy 17
Rate Hiking Cycle Will Resume In H11617
The Banco Central do Brasil will resume its hiking cycle in 2016 as inflation heads higher due to rising capital flight and fiscal pressure
Higher interest rates will erode private consumption and investment as the financial system restricts lending
Monetary Policy Framework 19
Currency Forecast 20
BRL: Headed Even Lower In 201620
Over the course of the next six months, the Brazilian real will continue its depreciatory trajectory as foreign capital continues to exit the
country, placing downward pressure on the currency
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST20
TABLE: BMI COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS21
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 23
The Brazilian Economy To 2025 23
Days Of Easy Growth Are Gone23
Substantial mineral wealth and one of Latin America's largest consumer bases will help keep investor interest rooted in Brazil over
the long term, but the next 10 years will not be easy for the economy The consumer story is set for a period of slower growth, while
infrastructure bottlenecks and a substantial tax burden will weigh on the country's business environment
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS23
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 25
SWOT Analysis 25
BMI Political Risk Index 25
Domestic Politics 26
Unifying PT Will Not Bolster Austerity Agenda26
President Dilma Rousseff will stave off impeachment by accommodating policies endorsed by the more left-leaning members of her
PT party However, this will preclude many fiscal austerity measures proposed by the government in its attempt to limit economic
stagnation
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW26
Long-Term Political Outlook 27
Economy To Dominate Policymaking27
Stimulating Brazil's stagnating economy will figure prominently on the policy agenda during President Dilma Rousseff's second term
In addition, the end of the PAC growth acceleration programme will challenge the government to continue improving Brazil's social
development metrics in order to provide the foundations for robust long-term growth
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 31
SWOT Analysis 31
Operational Risk Index 31
Operational Risk 32
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK32
Trade Procedures And Governance 33
TABLE: IMPORT AND EXPORT DOCUMENTS33
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN33
TABLE: LATIN AMERICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK 34
Vulnerability To Crime 35
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 39
Global Macro Outlook 39
Unfinished Business In 201639
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS39
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %40
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 40
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %41
TABLE: BRAZIL - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS43

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Ahmad

+1 718 618 4302

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Sports Analytics Market: by Type (Solutions & Services), by Applications (Player Analysis, Team Performance Analysis, Health Assessment, Video Analysis), Deployment (Cloud, On Premises) & By Region-Forecast (2016-2021)

Sports Analytics Market: by Type (Solutions & Services), by Applications (Player Analysis, Team Performance Analysis, Health Assessment, Video Analysis), Deployment (Cloud, On Premises) & By Region-Forecast (2016-2021)

  • $ 5250
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by Industry ARC

In a broader sense the term “sports analytics” can be defined as the management of structured historical data, the application of predictive analytic models that utilize that data, and the use of information ...

Global Sports Fishing Equipment Industry

Global Sports Fishing Equipment Industry

  • $ 4500
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Global Industry Analysts

This report analyzes the worldwide markets for Sports Fishing Equipment in US$ by the following Product Segments: Rods, Reels & Poles, Lures, Flies & Baits, Fishing Lines, Hooks, and Others. The report ...

Global Artificial Turf Market - Growth, Forecasts and Trends (2016 - 2021)

Global Artificial Turf Market - Growth, Forecasts and Trends (2016 - 2021)

  • $ 4250
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by Mordor Intelligence LLP

Market Insights The global artificial turf market was USD 2416.50 in 2012 and is expected to reach USD XX million by 2021, witnessing a market growth of XX% during the forecasted period (2016-2021). The ...

Sports Car Markets In China

November 2016 $ 4000

Sport Content: Tv Vs. Ott

August 2016 $ 3450

ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.