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Cameroon Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 41 pages

Core Views

Cameroon’s economy will see a year of strong GDP growth in 2016,as robust levels of investment, government spending, and low inflationall contribute to a higher production incentive for many of thecountry’s producers. Low levels of domestic savings will lead to aslight deceleration in economic growth 2017, but a stable currencywill ensure GDP growth remains strong over our long-term outlook.Cameroon will record another two years of wide budget deficits in2016 and 2017 thanks to the government’s continued commitmentto improving the country’s infrastructure network.

The subsequentincrease in the country’s debt burden and strong economic growthwill see this deficit gradually fall as a percentage of GDP.Cameroon’s current account deficit will deepen over 2016 and 2017as exports struggle to keep up with robust import growth. The positionwill be largely financed by foreign investment into the country’sconsiderable infrastructure pipeline, resulting in a significant financialaccount surplus.The Banque des Etats de l’Afrique Centrale will maintain the keypolicy rate at 2.45% throughout 2016, following the decision toleave the rate unchanged at the November 2015 Monetary PolicyCommittee meeting. This is due to a low inflation outlook for 2016,resulting from further decline in the oil price and a stable currency.Boko Haram will remain a potent threat in north-west Cameroon in2016. While regional co-operation and support from the US will yieldsome results, acts of terrorism committed by the group will continueas long as the possibility of a political solution is overlooked.

Table Of Contents

Cameroon Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Full Steam Ahead As Growth Peaks In 20168
Cameroon's economy will see a year of strong GDP growth in 2016, as robust levels of investment, government spending, and low
inflation all contribute to a higher production incentive for many of the country's producers
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
Fiscal And Debt Outlook 11
Fiscal Profligacy No Cause For Concern11
Cameroon will record another two years of wide budget deficits in 2016 and 2017 thanks to the government's continued commitment to
improving the country's infrastructure network The subsequent increase in the country's debt burden and strong economic growth will
see this deficit gradually fall as a percentage of GDP
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY11
Structural Fiscal Position 12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES12
External Trade And Investment Outlook 13
Deficit Deepens In Another Year Of Weak Export Growth13
Cameroon's current account deficit will deepen over 2016 and 2017 as exports struggle to keep up with robust import growth The
position will be largely financed by foreign investment into the country's considerable infrastructure pipeline, resulting in a significant
financial account surplus
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT14
Outlook On External Position 15
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 201416
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 201416
Monetary Policy 17
Currency Stability To Keep Rates Unchanged17
Cameroon's currency peg will allow it to escape the volatility that has increased inflation in Africa's other oil exporting economies
following the collapse of oil prices
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY 17
Monetary Policy Framework 18
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 21
The Cameroon Economy To 2025 21
Trend Growth To Remain Strong21
Economic growth in Cameroon will quicken in 2016 due to strong government consumption and a stable currency, despite a weak oil
outlook Private consumption, agricultural output, and capital investment will lift real GDP growth to an average of 53% between 2019
and 2024
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 25
SWOT Analysis 25
BMI Political Risk Index 25
Domestic Politics 26
Boko Haram Threat To Continue In 201626
Boko Haram will remain a potent threat in north-west Cameroon in 2016 While regional co-operation and support from the US will yield
some results, acts of terrorism committed by the group will continue as long as the possibility of a political solution is overlooked
Long-Term Political Outlook 27
Stability Threatened Both At Home And Abroad27
Cameroon's position as an island of relative political stability in a tumultuous region will be tried and tested over the next 10 years, as
the inevitability of regime change comes to bear The lack of democratic institutions and a hostile neighbourhood will pose the biggest
challenges to Cameroon's long-term political outlook
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 29
SWOT Analysis 29
Operational Risk Index 29
Operational Risk 30
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK30
Trade Procedures And Governance 31
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK 32
Vulnerability To Crime 33
TABLE: IMPORT AND EXPORT DOCUMENTS33
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN33
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 37
Global Macro Outlook 37
Unfinished Business In 201637
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS 37
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %38
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 38
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %39
TABLE: CAMEROON - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS41

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