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Finland Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 19 pages

Core Views

Finland’s economy is facing a number of cyclical and structuralheadwinds that are dragging on growth. Without structural reform,poor competitiveness will ensure that growth remains weak.The new government has put forward a much needed economicreform package, but it remains to be seen whether it can besuccessfully implemented.Over a longer time horizon, looming structural challenges pose athreat to public debt dynamics and may impede fiscal flexibility.Several key sectors, including forestry and papermaking, shipbuildingand telecommunications remain in terminal decline, while highlabour costs are acting as a deterrent for investment and importersof Finnish goods, despite strong structural competitiveness. Thishas cast doubt over the government’s ability sustainably to increaseaggregate demand through fiscal stimulus.

Table Of Contents

Finland Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Outlook 8
Another Weak Year Ahead8
Finland's economy is set for another weak year of growth The government's economic reforms will take time to bear fruit, and the sharp
contraction in Russia's economy is dampening external demand
Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Outlook 9
Sovereign Creditworthiness Deteriorating9
Weak economic activity will increasingly undermine Finland's sovereign creditworthiness over the coming quarters Political hurdles on
the horizon could exacerbate this dynamic
Chapter 2: Political Outlook 11
SWOT Analysis 11
BMI Political Risk Index 11
Domestic Politics 12
'Fixit' Unlikely In 2016, But Euro Support To Fall12
Finland's debate over euro membership in 2016 is unlikely to presage an exit of the single currency next year However, the country's
persistent economic underperformance is likely to lead to support for the euro declining further over the coming years
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW12
Long-Term Political Outlook 13
Structural Economic Decline Poses Greater Political Risks13
Broad and stable coalition governments will maintain policy continuity in Finland over the next decade while protecting individual
freedoms Nevertheless, a structural economic slowdown could see social tensions rise in line with unemployment, while relations with
neighbouring Russia could deteriorate further
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook 15
Global Macro Outlook 15
Unfinished Business In 201615
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS15
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %16
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 16
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %17
TABLE: FINLAND - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS19

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