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Grenada Country Risk Report 2015

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 25 pages

Core Views

Economic growth in Grenada will remain subdued over the next 10years, and the country will continue to run current account and fiscaldeficits. The rise in government debt to around 110% of GDP hasresulted in a comprehensive debt restructuring deal with the IMF,the effects of which will weigh on the island's growth prospects overat least the first half of our 10-year forecast period. Consequently,we forecast real GDP growth to average just 2.3% over the nextdecade.We believe that Grenada will replace the English Privy Council withthe Caribbean Court of Justice as the island nation's final court ofappeal. While this will not significantly alter daily operations in Grenada,it is a signal of increased regional integration, a trend that webelieve will continue.Tourism will continue to recover over the next decade, with growthin the US economy and most parts of Europe picking up. Decliningunemployment and greater wage growth in the US, a major sourceof tourists to Grenada, will contribute to robust tourism flows toCaribbean destinations in the coming years.Major Forecast ChangesWe have revised up our 10-year average headline real GDP growthforecasts from 1.6% to 2.3%, as the country's attractiveness as aninvestment destination is set to improve, and the government willboost capital spending.We have revised up our average current account deficit forecast to14.8% of GDP over the next 10 years to reflect an improved outlookfor the tourism sector.

Table Of Contents

Grenada Country Risk Report 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Long-Term Political Outlook 8
Constitutional Reform To Spur Regional Integration8
Grenada will remain stable over the next 10 years but will face increased political risk from public spending cuts and narcotics
transhipment A referendum on constitutional change, which we expect to take place in 2016, will most likely result in the island's
accession to the Caribbean Court of Justice, paving the way for increased regional integration
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 11
SWOT Analysis 11
BMI Economic Risk Index 11
Economic Growth Outlook 12
Stronger Growth To Be Driven By Investment12
Real GDP growth in Grenada will accelerate in 2016 and 2017 as the country's attractiveness as an investment destination improves
and the government boosts capital spending Real GDP growth will remain positive in the next few years as the tourism sector continues
to contribute towards increased investment in the economy
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 13
External Trade And Investment Outlook 14
Debt Load To Stabilise Amid Export Tailwinds14
Overall external debt will remain high but stable over our 10-year forecast period, which reflects implementation of debt-restructuring
and fiscal consolidation measures Meanwhile, an uptick in tourism and subdued import demand will see a gradual improvement in the
current account
Outlook On External Position 14
TABLE: TOP % GOODS EXPORTS IN 201414
TABLE: TOP % GOODS IMPORTS IN 201415
Long-Term Economic Outlook 15
Anaemic Growth Ahead15
Economic growth in Grenada will remain subdued over the next 10 years The heavy impact of fiscal consolidation combined with weak
domestic demand will ensure that headline real GDP growth averages just 23 %
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS16
Chapter 3: Demographic Outlook 19
Demographic Forecast 19
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP (GRENADA 1990-2025)20
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP % (GRENADA 1990-2025)20
TABLE: POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS (GRENADA 1990-2025)21
TABLE: KEY POPULATION RATIOS (GRENADA 1990-2025)21
TABLE: URBAN/RURAL POPULATION and LIFE EXPECTANCY (GRENADA 1990-2025) 21
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook 23
Global Macro Outlook 23
Unfinished Business In 201623
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS23
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %24
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 24
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %25

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