1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Iran Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Iran Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 39 pages

Core Views

Iran's agreement with the P5+1 countries over the former's nuclearprogramme will result in a removal of almost all sanctions on Iranin Q216.Declining oil prices will force the government to cut current spendingand investment in the country's infrastructure sector in 2016,which will result in slow expansion of private consumption and fixedinvestment.Downside pressure on the Iranian rial will remain prominent, and theunit will remain sensitive to developments in nuclear negotiationsover the coming quarters.Major Forecast ChangesWe have revised our real GDP growth forecasts this quarter, andare projecting the economy to expand by 1.3% in 2015 and 3.1%in 2016, respectively, from 2.1% and 3.0% previously.

Table Of Contents

Iran Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Rapid Uptick In Growth As Shackles Are Removed8
Iran's economy will see a substantial uptick in growth over the coming years as a result of the removal of sanctions in Q216 Given huge
infrastructure deficits, the economy will not undergo a boom, rather a steady acceleration in growth
TABLE: KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECAST9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECAST9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECAST10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECAST10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 11
Larger Deficits Ahead, But No Cause For Concern11
Iran's fiscal position will deteriorate further in 2016 as the impact of the nuclear deal is more than offset by sustained weakness in oil
prices Fiscal deficits will reach around 40% of GDP in 2016 and 2017, but given access to unfrozen assets, and foreign reserves, this
is more than manageable
Structural Fiscal Position 11
Banking Sector Update 12
Recovery On The Horizon, But Will Not Be Swift12
Iran's banking sector will benefit from the removal in sanctions at the start of 2016, but will remain in a state of near-crisis over the
coming quarters Lending growth will pick up in line with an improving economy, but a weaker rial and elevated inflation will weigh on
deposit growth
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY12
Currency Forecast 14
Further Depreciation Ahead, But Pace To Moderate14
The Iranian rial will continue to depreciate over the coming quarters due to its artificial strength, much lower oil revenues and stillelevated
inflation The pace of depreciation will be slower than in 2015 as the nuclear deal, greater foreign investment and an improving
economy mitigate some of the forces to the downside
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST 14
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 17
The Iranian Economy To 2025 17
Range Of Problems To Mitigate Impact Of Nuclear Deal17
A deal over Iran's nuclear programme will bolster the country's economic growth prospects However, the inability to fully exploit
Iran's enormous oil and gas wealth and a challenging operational environment will lead to slow economic growth over the next 10
years
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 19
SWOT Analysis 19
BMI Political Risk Index 19
Domestic Politics 20
Hardliners In The Ascendancy For Elections20
Iran's parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections in February 2016 will result in a more hardline composition of both bodies This
will worsen relations internally between the hardliners and more moderate execute branch in government It will also create additional
difficulties between Iran and the West
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW20
Long-Term Political Outlook 22
Hardliners To Maintain Control, But Power Struggle Likely22
Iran's hardliners will retain their hold on power over the coming decade, although moderates will continue to push for greater political
and social liberalisation Even if the relatively moderate President Hassan Rouhani wins re-election in 2017, the main institutions of
power, namely the Supreme Leader, Assembly of Experts, and Revolutionary Guard, will remain under conservative control Economic
necessity dictated a nuclear deal between Iran and the West in 2015, but risks to the deal collapsing will rise over the coming years,
especially if a hardliner is elected president in 2017 or is selected as the next Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
TABLE: POLITICAL SYSTEM22
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 27
SWOT Analysis 27
Operational Risk Index 27
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK28
Trade Procedures And Governance 29
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA-TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK 29
Vulnerability To Crime 30
TABLE: IMPORT AND EXPORT DOCUMENTS30
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN30
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 35
Global Macro Outlook 35
Unfinished Business In 201635
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS 35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %36
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 37
TABLE: IRAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS39

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 12000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Rise in crude oil production worldwide drives the COFI market” The global market size of COFI is estimated to reach USD 1.73 billion by 2021 from 1.32 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of 5.5%. Excessive ...

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 7000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Transparency Market Research

The filter bags market report provides an in-depth analysis of the global filter bag market for the period 2014 – 2024, wherein 2015 is the base year and the years from 2016 to 2024 is the forecast period. ...


ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.