1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Kenya Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Kenya Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 39 pages

Core Views

Economic conditions in Kenya are set to improve on the whole overthe next 12 months, with real GDP growth quickening slightly in 2016to 6.1% from an estimated 5.6% in 2015.The politicisation of sharp ethnic divisions remains the key threatto Kenya's long-term political stability. Terrorism linked to Kenya'smilitary involvement in Somalia is likely to remain a risk, but it doesnot pose a systemic threat to political stability.Despite a tense security situation, we believe that a booming consumerstory, a robust outlook for investment and lower oil prices willsee real GDP growth in Kenya expand at around 6.2% annually overthe next few years.The Kenyan economy will continue to benefit from lower global oilprices over the coming quarters given its status as a net fuel importer.

Concerns about public spending will remain to the fore over the comingquarters. While we predict that the country will see its fiscal deficitnarrow modestly over the coming years, we believe that its publicfinances are in less rude health than the headline indicators suggest.Major Forecast ChangesThe release of rebased GDP figures has led to substantial revisionsto our estimates of Kenya's current account and fiscal deficits whenpresented as a fraction of GDP. Our general view on economicgrowth and the development of the Kenyan economy remainslargely unchanged.

Table Of Contents

Kenya Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes 5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Growth Still On The Up, But Headwinds To Linger8
Economic conditions in Kenya are set to improve on the whole over the next 12 months, with real GDP growth quickening slightly in
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
Monetary Policy 10
Hiking Cycle Over, But FX Concerns Will See Cuts Come in H21610
We believe the hiking cycle in Kenya has come to an end and the country's monetary authorities will embark on a series of cuts in 2016,
amounting to 150 basis points
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
Monetary Policy Framework 11
Fiscal And Debt Outlook 13
Fiscal Risks To Remain Salient13
Election-related spending pressures, deep-seated corruption and a lack of political will undermine fiscal consolidation efforts in Kenya
over the next two years We forecast only a modest narrowing of the country's gaping budget deficit between 2016 and 2020
Structural Fiscal Position 13
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE and EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES14
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 17
The Kenyan Economy To 2025 17
Solid Headline Growth, Rapid Economic Diversification17
Real GDP growth in Kenya will gradually accelerate over the next 10 years, averaging 61% between 2016 and 2025 While headline
growth will be slower than in many African countries, Kenya's economy is relatively diversified; growth will be broad-based and relatively
sustainable
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 21
SWOT Analysis 21
BMI Political Risk Index 21
Domestic Politics 22
'Missing Eurobond' Will Tarnish Reputation22
The case of Kenya's 'missing eurobond' is proving particularly damaging for the government amid growing signs that the patience of
investors and ordinary Kenyans is running thin
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW22
Long-Term Political Outlook 23
Ethnic Polarisation Remains Key Challenge23
The politicisation of sharp ethnic divisions remains the key threat to Kenya's long-term political stability Although the 2013 elections
were peaceful, voting patterns show that the electorate continues to cast ballots according to ethnicity
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 27
SWOT Analysis 27
Operational Risk Index 27
Operational Risk 28
TABLE: KENYA - OPERATIONAL RISK INDEX SCORES AND RANKINGS28
Trade Procedures and
Governance 29
TABLE: EXPORT AND IMPORT DOCUMENTS29
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN29
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK 30
Vulnerability To Crime 31
Chapter 5:BMI Global Macro Outlook 35
Global Macro Outlook 35
Unfinished Business In 201635
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %36
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %37
MACROECONOMIC FORECAST39

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Ahmad

+1 718 618 4302

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 12000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Rise in crude oil production worldwide drives the COFI market” The global market size of COFI is estimated to reach USD 1.73 billion by 2021 from 1.32 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of 5.5%. Excessive ...

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 7000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Transparency Market Research

The filter bags market report provides an in-depth analysis of the global filter bag market for the period 2014 – 2024, wherein 2015 is the base year and the years from 2016 to 2024 is the forecast period. ...


ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.