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Senegal and Gambia Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 47 pages

Core Views

The Gambia will see higher real GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 thanin previous years, as the negative effects of the regional Ebola crisisdissipate. We forecast a continued improvement in The Gambia’sreal GDP growth, predicting a 3.8% expansion in 2016 and 4.9% in2017 – following 1.6% in 2014 and an estimated 3.3% in 2015. Thereremain serious underlying macroeconomic problems, however, andprotecting an overvalued currency will continue to run down reserves.President Yahya Jammeh is likely to remain in power, barring deathor illness or removal by military coup.Agriculture will remain the dominant sector in The Gambia, thoughinvestment into other industries such as tourism will help drive realGDP growth.

The country will remain reliant on foreign grants in order to meetits fiscal obligations, although these are under threat given politicaldevelopments. The Gambia is looking increasingly to Arab Gulfstates for funding.Core Views

Real GDP growth will be 6.0% in 2016 and 6.3% in 2017, and willremain at a similar level over the coming years.The country will remain a bastion of West African stability and willcontinue to develop its democratic institutions.Inflationary pressures will be benign, in part thanks to the XOFFranc’s peg to the euro.

Table Of Contents

Senegal and Gambia Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary - The Gambia11
Core Views11
Key Risks11
Chapter 11: Economic Outlook - The Gambia 13
SWOT Analysis 13
Economic Growth Outlook 14
Macroeconomic Policies Will Raise Investor Concerns14
The Gambia will see quicker real GDP growth in 2016 and 2017, as the negative effects of the regional Ebola crisis dissipate
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 15
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS15
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS15
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS15
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS16
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS16
Chapter 12: 10-Year Forecast - The Gambia 17
The Gambian Economy To 2025 17
Robust Growth Outlook Susceptible To External Shocks17
Real GDP growth in Gambia will be robust over the coming 10 years, hovering around 50% per annum This will be driven by
agriculture and tourism, though growth will be constrained by poor infrastructure
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS17
Chapter 13: Political Outlook - The Gambia 21
SWOT Analysis 21
Domestic Politics 22
President Jammeh Targets Gulf Aid With Islamic Declaration22
The unconstitutional declaration by President Yahya Jammeh that The Gambia is now an Islamic state is a political act aimed
at ensuring aid flows from rich Gulf states This will help shore up his rule, but will exacerbate other risks such as terrorism and
emigration
Long-Term Political Outlook 23
President Jammeh To Shape Next Decade23
The Gambia's political landscape will continue to be shaped by President Yahya Jammeh over the next decade, as political and press
freedoms will continue to be reduced A change in government will only come about through either a military coup or revolution
Chapter 14: Operational Risk - The Gambia 25
SWOT Analysis 25
Executive Summary - Senegal27
Core Views27
Key Risk27
Chapter 21: Economic Outlook - Senegal 29
SWOT Analysis 29
Economic Growth Outlook 30
On The Ground: Emerging From The Doldrums30
Senegal's real GDP growth will accelerate in 2016 thanks to public and private investment in new industries and major public works
President Macky Sall's effective leadership and economic plan will help attract funds, and BMI found most people on the ground held a
positive outlook on the country's direction
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 31
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS31
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS32
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS32
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS32
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS32
Chapter 22: 10-Year Forecast - Senegal 33
The Senegalese Economy To 2025 33
Growth To Outpace Previous Decade33
Senegal will enjoy strong real GDP growth over the next decade, averaging 60% annually, an improvement on the 38% recorded
over the previous 10 years Growth will be driven by private consumption, though the country's poor infrastructure will impede
development
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS33
Chapter 23: Political Outlook - Senegal 37
SWOT Analysis 37
Domestic Politics 38
Sall Will Set An Example For Other SSA Leaders38
President Macky Sall will successfully reduce his mandate from seven to five years in a 2016 referendum, meaning that the next
presidential election will take place in 2017 rather than 2019 On present performance Sall would win a second term, but progress must
be made in poverty reduction
Long-Term Political Outlook 39
Bastion Of Regional Stability To Flourish Politically39
Senegal will continue to develop politically over the next decade, cementing its reputation as one of the most stable democracies in
Africa There are challenges to this stability, not least from poverty and unemployment, but we believe that accelerating economic
development will help Senegal overcome these
Chapter 24: Operational Risk - Senegal 41
SWOT Analysis 41
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook 43
Global Macro Outlook 43
Unfinished Business In 201643
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS43
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %44
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 44
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %45
TABLE: GAMBIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS47
TABLE: SENEGAL - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS47

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